重庆市对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 14:47

本文选题：对外贸易 + 经济增长　；参考：《西南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济增长问题一直都是经济学研究的重点和难点课题。消费、投资和出口被凯恩斯誉为是推动经济增长的“三驾马车”。在全球经济一体化的不断发展过程中,对外贸易更是作为经济增长的“加速器”。纵观中国改革开放30多年的发展历程,对外贸易在推动中国经济的发展中发挥着不可估量的作用。改革开放30多年来,重庆的对外贸易对重庆地方经济的发展确实有着巨大的推动作用。因此,研究重庆市的对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系,依据客观的数据来探究重庆对外贸易的进出口对经济增长的影响因子是怎样的,以及对外贸易在一定时期内会对重庆市的GDP产生了什么样的影响,这些研究结果都将对未来重庆制定经济发展政策和对外贸易政策有着巨大的参考意义。通过回顾系列关于经济增长的经典理论、运用计量经济学方法以及统计学软件工具等,本文对重庆市的对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行全面的研究。整体上文章首先对有关对外贸易与经济增长二者之间关系的理论研究进行了纵向的回顾,其次分析了重庆当前的对外贸易与经济运行的发展现状,之后利用重庆1987-2011年的相关经济数据,通过Eviews软件利用Johansen协整理论、误差修正模型(ECM)等方法对二者之间的关系作了实证分析,并在此基础上指出当前重庆对外贸易中存在的问题及原因,最终提出促进重庆对外贸易发展的政策建议。通过定性分析本文得出：不断扩大的对外贸易总量,不断升级的外贸产品结构,以及逐渐优化的对外贸易方式和多元化的对外贸易市场等,全面的提高了重庆外贸水平和地区整体经济的发展。通过协整检验,结果表明重庆的经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系且对外贸易对经济增长的贡献度要远远小于投资对经济增长的贡献度。在上述结论的基础上,文章分析了重庆对外贸易中存在的问题：总量偏小,进出口总额在全国位次中偏低；重庆出口商品结构单一,技术含量低；贸易发展相对滞后,加工贸易发展尤为薄弱；对外贸易依存度偏低等问题。在此基础上了从政府、企业和宏观环境三个层面分析了可能存在的原因并提出相应的对策建议,以将重庆打造成为内陆开放高地城市,实现地区整体经济的稳定发展。
[Abstract]:The problem of economic growth has always been the focus and difficulty of economic research. Consumption, investment and exports were hailed by Keynes as the troika of economic growth. In the process of global economic integration, foreign trade is the accelerator of economic growth. Throughout the development of China's reform and opening up for more than 30 years, foreign trade plays an inestimable role in promoting the development of China's economy. Since the reform and opening up, Chongqing's foreign trade has played an important role in the development of Chongqing's local economy. Therefore, to study the relationship between Chongqing's foreign trade and economic growth, and to explore the impact factors of Chongqing's foreign trade imports and exports on economic growth based on objective data. And what kind of influence the foreign trade will have on the GDP of Chongqing in a certain period of time, these research results will be of great reference significance to the formulation of economic development policy and foreign trade policy of Chongqing in the future. By reviewing a series of classical theories on economic growth, using econometric methods and statistical software tools, this paper makes a comprehensive study of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Chongqing. As a whole, the article firstly reviews the theoretical research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and then analyzes the current development situation of Chongqing's foreign trade and economic operation. Then, using the relevant economic data of Chongqing from 1987 to 2011, using the method of Johansen cointegration theory and error correction model (ECM), the paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between them. On this basis, the paper points out the existing problems and causes of Chongqing's foreign trade, and finally puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the development of Chongqing's foreign trade. Through qualitative analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the total amount of foreign trade is constantly expanding, the product structure of foreign trade is constantly upgraded, and the mode of foreign trade is gradually optimized and the foreign trade market is diversified, etc. Comprehensive improvement of Chongqing's foreign trade level and the overall economic development of the region. Through cointegration test, the results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and export, import, consumption and investment in Chongqing, and the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth is much smaller than that of investment to economic growth. On the basis of the above conclusions, the paper analyzes the problems existing in Chongqing's foreign trade: the total quantity is small, the total import and export amount is low in the whole country, the structure of Chongqing's export commodities is single, the technology content is low, and the trade development is lagging behind. Processing trade development is particularly weak; foreign trade dependence is low and other problems. On this basis, this paper analyzes the possible reasons from three aspects of government, enterprise and macro environment, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, in order to build Chongqing into an inland open highland city and realize the stable development of the whole regional economy.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;F752.8;F224

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