政府投资与新疆经济增长关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 11:16

本文选题：政府投资 + 经济增长　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国GDP增长速度连续33年保持在9.8%左右。2008年中国名义GDP超过日本，位居世界第二位，中国成为世界上经济增速最快的地区。在这一经济过程中，政府投资扮演了非常重要的角色，尤其是在两次金融危机后。理论上可知政府投资有一个最优规模，在这个最优规模前，政府投资的增加可以促进经济的增长，但当政府投资超过这一最优规模时，政府投资的增加将会阻碍经济的增长。新疆作为西部欠发达地区，，地域辽阔，资源丰富，长期中具有巨大的发展潜力。在发展过程中新疆政府提出了跨越式发展，但纵观世界经济发展史上那些实现跨越式发展的国家和地区，无一不是在经济起飞之前进行了先行资本的投资，为私人投资和经济发展提供一个基础。那么，新疆的政府投资和经济增长之间的关系如何，本文将对二者的关系进行试探性的研究，并在此基础上给出相应的政策建议。首先，本文给出了政府投资与经济增长的国内外研究综述和理论基础，政府投资不仅仅对经济本身有影响，还且还会通过对私人投资的影响来共同对一国或一地区经济产生作用，通过理论分析，得出政府投资存在一最优规模。其次，通过古典线性回归和VAR模型，对政府投资与新疆经济增长之间的关系、私人投资与政府投资之间的关系以及政府投资的最优规模进行了实证，得出了以下结论，政府投资每增加1%，新疆经济总量将会增加0.06%；政府投资对私人投资具有挤出效应；政府投资的最优规模为占GDP的11.06%。最后，根据第三、四、五章的实证结果，提出了以下三点建议：第一、根据不同的经济发展阶段，合理界定政府投资的范围；第二、合理调整政府投资的结构、规模以及优化政府投资效率；第三、加大新疆资本存量的形成，使其对私人投资产生正的外部性，促进新疆经济的跨越式发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's GDP growth rate has remained at around 9.8 percent for 33 consecutive years. In 2008, China's nominal GDP surpassed Japan's, ranking second in the world, and China became the fastest growing region in the world. In this economic process, government investment has played a very important role, especially after the two financial crises. In theory, there is an optimal scale of government investment, before which an increase in government investment can promote economic growth, but when government investment exceeds this optimal scale, an increase in government investment will hinder economic growth. Xinjiang, as an underdeveloped region in the west, has a vast territory and abundant resources, and has great potential for development in the long run. In the process of development, the Xinjiang government proposed leap-forward development, but throughout the history of world economic development, all the countries and regions that have realized leap-forward development have invested in the leading capital before the economic take-off. Provide a basis for private investment and economic development. Then, what is the relationship between government investment and economic growth in Xinjiang, this paper will make a tentative study of the relationship between the two, and give corresponding policy recommendations on this basis. First of all, this paper gives the domestic and foreign research and theoretical basis of government investment and economic growth, government investment not only has an impact on the economy itself. In addition, the influence of private investment on the economy of a country or a region can be combined, and through theoretical analysis, it is concluded that there is an optimal scale of government investment. Secondly, through classical linear regression and VAR model, the relationship between government investment and Xinjiang economic growth, the relationship between private investment and government investment, and the optimal scale of government investment are demonstrated, and the following conclusions are drawn. For each increase in government investment, the total economic output of Xinjiang will increase by 0.06%; government investment will have an crowding out effect on private investment; the optimal scale of government investment is 11.06% of GDP. Finally, according to the empirical results of the third, fourth and fifth chapters, the following three suggestions are put forward: first, according to different stages of economic development, the scope of government investment should be rationally defined; second, the structure of government investment should be adjusted rationally. Third, increase the formation of capital stock in Xinjiang, make it produce positive externality to private investment, and promote the leap-forward development of Xinjiang economy.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.48

【参考文献】