欧元区主要经济体经济周期协动性的机理分析与实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 17:03

本文选题：欧元区 + 经济周期　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：欧元区的设立是根据Mundell提出的最优通货区的理论发展出来的。在开始阶段,欧元区的实践曾取得非常出色的经济表现,在21世纪初欧元区对成员国和世界主要经济体的经济发展都做出了重大的贡献。欧债危机爆发后,欧元区对受危机影响的欧元区国家的救助迟迟达不成共识。随后越来越多的欧元区国家被卷入了此次危机。这场欧债危机使得人们对于欧元区的经济周期协动程度产生了兴趣,在危机前,欧元区各成员国是否已经出现经济协动程度增强的现象?如果是的话,这个现象又是由什么原因造成的?为了解答这些问题,本文试图从贸易深化、统一的货币政策和更为整合的金融市场,以及财政协调三个方面对欧元区成立前后成员国协动程度变化的内在逻辑进行分析,并提出理论假设。本文以瑞典、英国、美国、日本这四个在地理位置、贸易结构或者经济联系与欧元区经济体比较接近的区外国家作为参照来研究欧元区设立前后其第一批成员国的经济周期协动程度的变化,验证了根据理论推导得出假设。本文发现尽管受全球经济一体化的影响,各主要经济体经济周期协动性都出现不同程度地提高,但在欧元区成立之后,其成员国经济周期协动程度明显增强,并出现向以德国为首的核心组国家不断趋近的趋势。最后,本文根据欧元区的实践和经验,对未来东亚地区可能的一体化提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The establishment of the eurozone was developed on the basis of the theory of the best currency area proposed by the Mundell. In the beginning, the practice of the eurozone had achieved remarkable economic performance. In the early twenty-first Century, the euro area made a significant contribution to the economic development of the member countries and the major economies of the world. A growing number of euro zone countries were involved in the crisis. The euro zone countries were involved in the crisis. In order to answer these questions, this article tries to analyze the internal logic of the changes in the coordination degree of the member countries before and after the establishment of the euro area, and put forward the theoretical hypothesis in three aspects of the deepening of trade, the unified monetary policy and the more integrated financial market, and the financial coordination. The changes in the economic cycle CO activity of the first group of member countries before and after the establishment of the euro area are studied by the four countries, such as the United Kingdom, the United States, the United States, and Japan, which are close to the eurozone economies. With the influence of economic integration, the economic cycle synergy of the major economies has been improved in varying degrees. But after the establishment of the eurozone, the economic cycle of its member countries has increased significantly, and the trend towards the core group countries headed by Germany. Finally, this article is based on the practice and experience of the euro area to the future East Asia. The possible integration of the region put forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F113.7

【参考文献】