欧元区主要经济体经济周期协动性的机理分析与实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 17:03

本文选题：欧元区 + 经济周期　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：欧元区的设立是根据Mundell提出的最优通货区的理论发展出来的。在开始阶段,欧元区的实践曾取得非常出色的经济表现,在21世纪初欧元区对成员国和世界主要经济体的经济发展都做出了重大的贡献。欧债危机爆发后,欧元区对受危机影响的欧元区国家的救助迟迟达不成共识。随后越来越多的欧元区国家被卷入了此次危机。这场欧债危机使得人们对于欧元区的经济周期协动程度产生了兴趣,在危机前,欧元区各成员国是否已经出现经济协动程度增强的现象?如果是的话,这个现象又是由什么原因造成的?为了解答这些问题,本文试图从贸易深化、统一的货币政策和更为整合的金融市场,以及财政协调三个方面对欧元区成立前后成员国协动程度变化的内在逻辑进行分析,并提出理论假设。本文以瑞典、英国、美国、日本这四个在地理位置、贸易结构或者经济联系与欧元区经济体比较接近的区外国家作为参照来研究欧元区设立前后其第一批成员国的经济周期协动程度的变化,验证了根据理论推导得出假设。本文发现尽管受全球经济一体化的影响,各主要经济体经济周期协动性都出现不同程度地提高,但在欧元区成立之后,其成员国经济周期协动程度明显增强,并出现向以德国为首的核心组国家不断趋近的趋势。最后,本文根据欧元区的实践和经验,对未来东亚地区可能的一体化提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The creation of the euro zone is based on Mundell's theory of an optimal currency area. In the beginning, the practice of the euro zone has achieved a very good economic performance, and at the beginning of the 21st century, the euro zone has made a great contribution to the economic development of member countries and the major economies of the world. In the wake of the European debt crisis, the euro zone's rescue of euro zone countries affected by the crisis has been slow to reach consensus. A growing number of euro zone countries were subsequently involved in the crisis. The crisis has generated interest in the extent of the eurozone's economic cycle, and before the crisis, has the eurozone's member states seen an increase in economic coordination? If so, what is the cause of this phenomenon? In order to answer these questions, this paper attempts to analyze the internal logic of the changes in the degree of cooperation between member countries before and after the establishment of the euro zone from three aspects: deepening trade, unified monetary policy and more integrated financial markets, and fiscal coordination. And put forward the theoretical hypothesis. This paper uses Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan as the four geographical locations. The trade structure or economic relationship between the countries outside the region and the euro zone is used as a reference to study the changes of the degree of economic cycle cooperativeness of the first member countries before and after the establishment of the euro zone, which verifies the hypothesis derived from the theoretical derivation. This paper finds that the degree of economic cycle synergy among major economies has increased significantly after the establishment of the euro zone, although the economic cycle synergy of major economies has increased to varying degrees due to the impact of global economic integration. And there is a trend to the core group of countries led by Germany. Finally, according to the practice and experience of the euro zone, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the possible integration of East Asia in the future.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F113.7

【参考文献】