中国经济“微刺激”效果及其趋势评估

发布时间：2018-06-24 11:00

  本文选题：“微刺激” + 宏观经济政策　； 参考：《改革》2014年07期

【摘要】：政府为稳增长而使用的"微刺激"政策有其必要性。"微刺激"已取得一定的稳增长效果。但是,"微刺激"的使用不能常态化、长期化。究其原因:一是"微刺激"仍然靠拉动投资稳增长;二是政府频频出招,"微刺激"叠加之后的政策力度并不小;三是寄望"微刺激"既稳增长又调结构的战略意图难以实现,并且可能导致经济结构进一步恶化;四是"微刺激"已经出现"效应递减"现象,政府为稳增长很可能将"微刺激"不断加码为强刺激。解决换挡期出现的增速下滑问题,应完善社会政策体系,发挥其"托底"功能。
[Abstract]:There is a need for a "micro-stimulus" policy used by the government to stabilize growth. " Micro stimulation "has achieved certain steady growth effect." However, the use of "micro-stimuli" can not be regular, long-term. The reasons are as follows: first, "micro-stimulus" still depends on pulling investment to stabilize growth; second, the government frequently makes moves, and the policy intensity after "micro-stimulus" is superimposed is not small; and third, it is difficult to realize the strategic intention of "micro-stimulus" to achieve both steady growth and structural adjustment. And may lead to further deterioration of the economic structure; fourth, "micro-stimulus" has appeared a "diminishing effect" phenomenon, the government for stable growth will likely continue to add "micro-stimulus" as a strong stimulus. To solve the problem of decreasing growth rate in shift period, we should perfect the social policy system and give full play to its "backing" function.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“中国人口老龄化对宏观经济的定量影响”(批准号:71273272);国家自然科学基金项目“企业异质性与最优货币政策研究”(批准号:71373266) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国宏观经济困境的形成机理与应对策略”
【分类号】：F124
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本文编号：2061303