福建省出口贸易结构和产业结构的联动性研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 23:13

本文选题：出口贸易结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《华侨大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：贸易结构和产业结构是经济学领域研究的两个热点问题。从内部经济来说，产业结构是一国或地区经济的骨架，决定着经济发展的速度、质量及今后发展的方向；开放经济中，贸易结构则成为影响经济增长的又一关键因素，直接反映着一国或地区的产业竞争力及其国际分工位次。“十二五”规划建议也指出，要始终把调整优化经济结构作为加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向，突出产业结构优化升级，转变外贸增长方式，充分发挥福建在海峡西岸经济区中先行先试的主体作用。因此，对福建省出口贸易结构和产业结构的耦合联动性进行研究，从而探究二者如何协调发展的问题，具有时代性和现实意义。本文采用实证分析和定性分析相结合的研究方法对福建出口贸易结构和产业结构的联动性进行研究。定性分析上，首先对国际贸易理论和产业结构理论进行综述，探究贸易结构和产业结构关联性的理论支撑；然后以理论为基础，分析共同影响因素，，并具体剖析二者的互动机制。实证分析上，借助统计数据考察二者的历史耦合关系，并量化结构变动效应；利用向量自回归（VAR）模型先从总体上分析出口贸易结构和产业结构的联动关系；然后依次利用出口内生增长模型和半对数回归模型具体分析出口贸易因素对产业结构的作用，以及三次产业对出口贸易结构的影响。通过统计分析和实证研究，本文发现福建出口贸易结构与产业结构之间存在长期协整关系；产业结构对出口贸易结构具有重要决定作用，但由于三次产业整体结构和个体结构中仍存在不合理因素，短期中可能不利于出口贸易结构优化。出口贸易结构对产业结构的影响存在滞后效应，且其对产业结构的影响作用具有局限性，影响程度相对较弱，产业结构的优化主要还是受自身内部结构调整的影响。基于上述分析和结论，本文认为，福建省应通过产业结构的提升来带动出口贸易结构的优化，并通过出口贸易结构的优化来促进产业结构的提升。
[Abstract]:Trade structure and industrial structure are two hot issues in the field of economics. In terms of the internal economy, the industrial structure is the backbone of the economy of a country or region, which determines the speed, quality and future direction of economic development. In an open economy, the trade structure becomes another key factor affecting economic growth. It directly reflects the industrial competitiveness of a country or region and its international division of labor. The 12th Five-Year Plan also pointed out that the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure should always be regarded as the main direction of attack in speeding up the transformation of the mode of economic development, highlighting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and transforming the mode of foreign trade growth. Give full play to the main role of Fujian in the economic zone of the West Bank of the Straits. Therefore, the study on the coupling of export trade structure and industrial structure of Fujian Province, so as to explore the problem of how to coordinate the development of the two has the time and practical significance. This paper studies the linkage of Fujian's export trade structure and industrial structure by the combination of empirical analysis and qualitative analysis. In qualitative analysis, firstly, the international trade theory and industrial structure theory are summarized, and the theoretical support of the correlation between trade structure and industrial structure is explored, and then, based on the theory, the common influencing factors are analyzed. And the specific analysis of the interaction between the two mechanisms. In the empirical analysis, the historical coupling relationship between them is investigated with the help of statistical data, and the effect of structural change is quantified, and the linkage relationship between export trade structure and industrial structure is analyzed by using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Then we use the export endogenous growth model and semi-logarithmic regression model to analyze the effect of export trade factors on the industrial structure and the influence of three industries on the export trade structure. Through statistical analysis and empirical research, this paper finds that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between Fujian's export trade structure and industrial structure, and the industrial structure plays an important role in determining the export trade structure. However, there are still unreasonable factors in the overall and individual structure of the three industries, which may be unfavorable to the optimization of export trade structure in the short term. The influence of export trade structure on industrial structure has lag effect, and its influence on industrial structure is limited, and the influence degree is relatively weak. The optimization of industrial structure is mainly influenced by its internal structure adjustment. Based on the above analysis and conclusion, this paper holds that Fujian Province should promote the optimization of export trade structure through the upgrading of industrial structure, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the optimization of export trade structure.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8

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