美国巨额财政赤字及其对美国与中国经济的影响

发布时间：2018-06-25 03:46

本文选题：财政赤字 + 美国经济　；参考：《中共中央党校》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：后危机时代欧盟爆发的财赤问题和债务危机，似乎印证这句“每轮经济危机过后常常伴随着债务危机。”就在人们密切关注欧债危机之时，美国这个世界最强的经济体，其财政状况也出现了问题，并且似乎不比欧盟国家乐观。美国的财政赤字问题已发展成为当前美国经济的最大问题之一。其实美国财政赤字问题由来已久，从上世纪中期开始美国财政问题就不断，而2008年百年一遇的全球金融危机加速了美国财政状况恶化，财政赤字迅速增长到前所未有的规模，于是美国财政赤字问题再一次以岌岌可危之势进入人们的视野。金融危机爆发后，美国财政赤字从2008年的4548亿美元增至2009年的1.41万亿美元，短短一年增长了2倍之多。美国联邦财政赤字从2009年到2012年连续四年高居1万亿美元。随着美国联邦政府支出不断膨胀，而财政收入增长潜力又十分有限，美国财政赤字未来走势不容乐观。从长远来看，美国日益扩张的财政赤字不仅对美国经济产生消极影响，，导致高利率、高贸易赤字、美元贬值和美国巨额债务等问题，而且通过各种传导机制对世界经济造成巨大冲击，尤其是，未来美联储还会推出新一轮量化宽松政策或类似量化宽松政策，借此推高股市、维持美元贬值和促进出口增长。而这相当于美国通过牺牲其他国家的经济利益来促进本国经济发展。美国竭尽全力地通过各种手段减轻债务负担，毫无顾忌地把经济调整的代价转嫁到其他国家。在此形势下，作为美国国债最大持有国、美国第一大贸易顺差国的中国毫无疑问受到的冲击比任何国家都大。为此，中国有必要密切关注美国财政赤字问题及其发展趋势，并采取有效措施将可能遭受的损失降到最低。本文首先从历史的角度出发，以历届美国总统任期为时间节点，探寻上世纪60年代至今美国财政赤字成长过程。然后，在综合运用相关统计资料的基础上，揭示美国巨额财政赤字形成原因，主要有制约财政收入增长的因素、导致财政支出增加的因素及其他深层次原因，其中，深层次原因表现在美国历届政府的财政选择思想、美元的庇佑、美国产业结构问题和制度性因素。再次，本文从两个角度分析美国巨额财政赤字带来的影响。一是从美国的角度；二是从中国这个美债最大持有国的角度。这部分是本文的重点，而美国财政赤字对中国经济的影响是本部分的重点。美国巨额财政赤字对中国经济的影响表现在：引起中国外汇储备大幅缩水、人民币汇率持续攀升、外贸出口面临下滑和通胀压力不断加大。最后，本文在综合分析美国巨额财政赤字对中美经济影响的基础上，探讨美国财政赤字未来发展趋势并提出中国应对策略。未来十年内美国巨额财政赤字问题是无法被克服的。为了将美国财政赤字对中国经济带来的负面影响降到最低，在短期内中国要控制通胀、稳定物价并调整外汇储备结构，在中长期要推动人民币国际化、加快经济结构转变。
[Abstract]:The fiscal deficits and debt crises of the European Union in the post crisis era seem to confirm that "every round of the economic crisis is often accompanied by the debt crisis." as people closely watched the European debt crisis, the United States, the world's strongest economy, had a problem in its financial situation and seemed not to be more optimistic than the European Union. The problem of the deficit has been one of the biggest problems in the current economy of the United States. In fact, the problem of the US fiscal deficit has been long since the middle of the last century, and the financial problems of the 2008 global financial crisis accelerated the deterioration of the financial situation in the United States, and the financial deficit was rapidly increasing to an unprecedented scale. The US fiscal deficit is once again in a precarious view. After the financial crisis, the US deficit increased from $454 billion 800 million in 2008 to $1 trillion and 410 billion in 2009, more than 2 times a year. The United States federal budget deficit was 1 trillion dollars from 2009 to 2012.
As the federal government spending is expanding and the growth potential of fiscal revenue is very limited, the future trend of the US fiscal deficit is not optimistic. In the long run, the growing fiscal deficit in the United States not only has a negative impact on the American economy, but also leads to high interest rates, high trade deficits, the devaluation of the US dollar and the huge debt of the United States, and so on. In the future, the Fed will also launch a new round of quantitative easing, or similar quantitative easing, to push up the stock market, maintain the devaluation of the dollar and promote export growth, which is the equivalent of the United States to promote the economic development of the country by sacrificing its national economic interests. The United States has made every effort to reduce its debt burden through various means and unscruple to transfer the cost of economic adjustment to other countries. In this situation, China, as the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, has no doubt that China has a bigger impact than any other country in the country's largest trade surplus country. Fiscal deficit and its development trend, and take effective measures to minimize possible losses.
Starting from the historical point of view, this paper, taking the term of the presidency of the United States as the time node, explores the growth process of the US fiscal deficit in the 60s of last century. Then, on the basis of the comprehensive use of relevant statistical data, it reveals the causes of the formation of the huge fiscal deficit in the United States, which mainly restricts the growth of fiscal revenue and leads to financial expenditure. The increasing factors and other deep reasons, of which, the deep reasons are manifested in the fiscal choice of the United States government, the blessing of the United States dollar, the industrial structure of the United States and institutional factors. Again, this article analyses the impact of the us huge fiscal deficit from two angles. One is from the angle of the United States, and the two is the US debt from China. This part is the focus of this article, and the impact of the US fiscal deficit on China's economy is the focus of this part. The impact of the us huge fiscal deficit on China's economy shows that China's foreign exchange reserves have been drastically shrinking, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise, the export of foreign trade is facing a decline and inflationary pressure is increasing. Finally, on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the us huge fiscal deficit on China and the United States, the future development trend of the United States fiscal deficit is discussed and China's coping strategy is put forward. In the next ten years, the us huge fiscal deficit problem can not be overcome. In the short term, China should control inflation, stabilize prices and adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves. In the medium and long term, we should promote internationalization of RMB and speed up the transformation of economic structure.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F171.2;F124

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