中国省际经济增长质量的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-27 15:48

本文选题：经济增长质量 + 省际差异　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济增长理论是经济学中研究的非常深入的一个概念，几乎伴随着经济学诞生而出现的，同时其也一直是经济发展的重要目标之一。但是将近两百年的历史中，经济增长理论几乎都是在研究经济增长数量的问题，从经典的哈罗德-多马模型到现在的内生经济增长理论，几乎所有理论都是在研究如何更快更有效的实现GDP，也就是经济增长数量的增加，而罕有人研究经济增长在质量上的提高。但是显而易见，一个真正完整的经济增长不仅仅是外在表现为数量的增加，更应该体现在与之相应的增长质量的提高，两者相辅相成，，不可或缺其一。中国自改革开放以来，经济的发展在数量上已然取得了令人叹为观止的巨大成功，但与此同时，伴随着快速发展而来的关于社会、经济、资源环境等之间的矛盾也日渐凸显。经济的转型势在必行，提高中国经济增长的问题已经成为中国国民经济发展中一项最重要的课题之一。本文就是在这样的理论背景与现实背景之下，重新构建出新的指标评价体系来对我国大陆30个省级行政区（不包含西藏）的经济增长质量差异进行评价研究，并给出相适的对策建议。具体来说，本文首先在对国内外学者对经济增长质量的研究的基础之上，重新界定什么是经济增长质量，即对其内涵进行了重新的论述。其次，在前人所构建的指标体系之下，融入自身的见解，对之进行重新的指标构建。本文最终一共选取了五个方面，六个维度的二十一个指标构成全新的经济增长质量的评价指标体系。然后，由于指标以及研究的对象（30个省级行政区）数据量非常的大，指标与指标之间也有着相关性，为了解决这个问题本文选择利用SPSS软件，运用因子分析和聚类分析相结合的方法，对省际的经济增长质量差异进行了研究，本文主要得到的结论有：从大的整体来看我国经济增长质量非常的不平衡，省际间的经济增长差异明显。其中，30个省级行政区中大约百分之三十以上区域的地区在第一公因子，即“经济社会综合实力”指标上表现较弱；一半以上的省际行政区不能达到“协调、可持续发展”；三分之二的省际行政区“稳定性与经济增长的持续性”得不到保障。通过进一步的聚类分析显示我国当前经济增长质量表现为纵向划分的差异性特征，即东部地区经济增长质量较高，中西部较低；同时东部地区的经济在增长过程中表现出较为明显的“点—线—面”增长级特征；而与之相对应的是中西部地区较为明显的二元经济结构特征，以及经济发展与生态和谐的巨大矛盾。随后，通过对RD投入与经济增长质量的实证分析显示，东部经济增长质量较高的地区其RD投入也最多，而这些地区RD投入对经济增长的作用也显著；而中西部经济增长质量较差的地区对RD的投入也较少，与此同时RD投入对经济的增长几乎没有影响。与此同时，虽然东部的RD投入对经济增长的作用显著，但是由于其RD投入转化为实际经济产出的能力较差，所以RD投入的产出弹性相较于发达国家也明显较低。最后，通过对上述结论的进一步分析，本文更深入的分析了造成我国经济增长质量较低以及巨大的省际差异的内外原因，并根据这些原因相应地提出解决这种差异的对策与建议。本文的主要贡献在于：从理论创新方面来讲，本文在前人的研究基础之上，融入最新的经济研究成果，重新界定了经济增长质量，并在此基础上构建了新的指标体系，使之更具有现实性与理论性。运用这个心的指标体系能够更准确更全面更直观地反映出我国30个省级行政区间增长质量的差异。从分析角度的方面来讲，本文突破了前人从单一要素对经济增长质量分析的束缚，从更为开阔的视野出发，从经济结构、经济增长的持续性和稳定性、科技进步、社会生活以及资源利用和生态环境等五个方面六个维度综合分析评价经济增长的质量问题，更加地全面与富有现实意义。从研究方法来讲，在对经济增长质量理论研究和统计研究的基础之上，运用因子分析以及聚类分析的方法对30个省级行政区的经济增长质量进行了综合的评价与分析。这样的结合可以使得两种方法之间相互结合，又能互为补充，最大程度的克服掉主观性的干扰，从而能更加客观准确的反映出省际间增长质量差异的所在。同时，本文又以内生经济增长模型为基础，采用面板数据方法研究RD投入对经济增长质量的影响，对省际经济增长质量的差异进行了更为详细的分析与论述。
[Abstract]:The theory of economic growth is a very deep concept in economics, which is almost accompanied by the birth of economics. At the same time, it has always been one of the important targets of economic development. But in the history of nearly two hundred years, the theory of economic growth is almost all in the study of the number of economic growth, from the classic Harold - Thomas. From the model to the present theory of endogenous growth, almost all theories are studying how to achieve faster and more efficient implementation of GDP, that is, the increase in economic growth, while few people study the quality of economic growth. However, it is obvious that a truly complete economic growth is not only an increase in external performance, but also an increase in quantity. It should be reflected in the improvement of the corresponding growth quality. The two are complementary and indispensable. Since China's reform and opening to the outside world, the economic development has made an amazing great success in the number of economic development, but at the same time, the contradiction between the social, economic and resource environment is becoming more and more with the rapid development. It is imperative that the economic transformation is imperative. The problem of improving China's economic growth has become one of the most important issues in the development of China's national economy. This paper is to reestablish a new index evaluation system to the economy of 30 provincial administrative regions (excluding Tibet) in China. The difference of growth quality is evaluated, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given.
Specifically, on the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the quality of economic growth, this paper redefines what is the quality of economic growth, that is, its connotation is re discussed. Secondly, under the index system constructed by the predecessors, it is integrated into its own views to make a new index construction. In five aspects, the twenty-one indexes of the six dimensions constitute a new evaluation index system for the quality of economic growth. Then, as the index and the object of the study (30 provincial administrative regions) are very large, there is also a correlation between the index and the index. In order to solve this problem, we choose to use SPSS software and use factor analysis. Combined with cluster analysis, the quality difference of economic growth between provinces is studied. The main conclusions are as follows: from a large whole, the quality of economic growth is very uneven in China, and the economic growth difference between provinces is obvious. Among them, about thirty percent regions of the 30 provincial administrative regions are in the first place. A public factor, that is, is weak in the "comprehensive economic and social strength" index, and more than half of the provincial administrative region can not achieve "coordination and sustainable development"; 2/3 the inter provincial administrative region "stability and economic growth sustainability" can not be guaranteed. Through further cluster analysis, the quality of economic growth in China is shown to show the quality of our country's economic growth. In the eastern region, the economic growth of the eastern region is relatively low, and the economic growth in the eastern region shows a more obvious "point to line to face" in the eastern region, while the relatively obvious characteristics of the two yuan economic structure in the central and western regions and the economy are relative to the economy in the eastern region. The great contradiction between development and ecological harmony. Then, through the empirical analysis of the RD input and the quality of economic growth, the RD investment in the region with higher economic growth quality is also the most, and the role of RD investment in these regions is also significant, while the region with poor economic growth in the central and western regions is also less invested in the RD. At the same time, RD input has little impact on economic growth. At the same time, although RD input in the East has a significant role in economic growth, the output elasticity of RD input is significantly lower than that in developed countries because of its poor ability to transform RD into actual economic output. Finally, the further analysis of the above conclusions is made. In this paper, the internal and external reasons for the low quality of China's economic growth and the huge inter provincial differences are analyzed in this paper, and the countermeasures and suggestions for solving these differences are put forward according to these reasons.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows: in terms of theoretical innovation, on the basis of previous research, this paper reintegrates the latest economic research results and redefines the quality of economic growth. On this basis, a new index system is constructed to make it more realistic and theoretical. The index system of this heart can be more accurate and more complete. It is more intuitive to reflect the differences in the growth quality of the 30 provincial administrative regions in China. From the perspective of the analysis, this article breaks through the predecessors' constraints on the analysis of the quality of economic growth from a single factor, from a more open perspective, from the economic structure, the sustainability and stability of economic growth, the progress of science and technology, the social life and the capital. The comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the quality of economic growth in five aspects, such as source utilization and ecological environment, is more comprehensive and realistic. On the basis of the research methods, on the basis of the theoretical and statistical research on the quality of economic growth, the method of factor analysis and cluster analysis is applied to the 30 provincial administrative regions. The quality of the economic growth is evaluated and analyzed comprehensively. This combination can make the two methods be combined with each other, and can complement each other, overcome the subjective interference to the maximum extent, and thus can more objectively and accurately reflect the difference in the inter provincial growth quality. The panel data method is used to study the impact of RD input on the quality of economic growth, and the differences in the quality of inter provincial economic growth are analyzed and discussed in detail.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1

【参考文献】