食品价格波动对我国城镇居民消费结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 23:52

本文选题：消费结构 + 食品价格　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费问题是许多国家都高度重视的问题。中国是人口大国，居民消费需求的增长可以很大程度上促进生产规模的扩大，促进经济持续快速健康发展。城镇居民的消费支出占全国居民消费总支出的比重很大，在2011年达到77.3%。近几年随着通货膨胀压力的加剧，食品价格不断上升，又进一步带动通货膨胀，在这样的经济环境影响下，我国城镇居民消费结构会受到怎样的影响成为值得关注的问题。一般来说，，城镇居民的消费结构用居民各类消费品支出的份额表示。食品价格波动会对我国城镇居民消费结构产生怎样的影响，对这一问题的研究将有助于及时掌握居民消费需求热点，制定合理政策，提高居民生活水平，有效刺激内需，促进经济健康发展，这是我国当前及今后都要面临的课题，也是社会发展过程中必须要解决的问题。本文理论与实证分析相结合，通过ELES模型、协整关系检验、方差分解分析，使用Eviews6.0经济分析软件对我国城镇居民消费结构进行研究与探讨。得出了关于食品价格在短期和长期中影响我国城镇居民消费结构的结论。在短期中，以2011年为样本期间，进行价格弹性分析，结果显示我国城镇居民消费结构中各类消费品对食品价格的交叉弹性为负值，这说明，食品价格上涨在短期内会对居民的消费需求产生挤出效应。而在长期中，采用1996—2011年的数据进行实证分析，结果显示除衣着类和家庭设备用品服务类外，其他类消费品都与食品价格呈现出负相关关系，这是因为，随着生活水平的提高，衣着类和家庭设备用品服务类逐渐成为了人们的生活必需品，具有一定的需求刚性，即使食品价格上升，也不会降低对这两类消费品的支出，相反会因为价格水平的上涨而出现消费支出增加的趋势，同时也表明了我国居民消费能力得到了提高。本文主要分为以下几个部分：第一部分阐述了文章的选题背景与意义，介绍国内外学者关于消费结构各个方面的研究现状以及本文的主要框架。第二部分介绍相关的理论以及本文中实证部分所用的几个研究方法。具体包括价格效应的理论依据、单位根检验、协整理论、VEC模型和方差分解。第三部分以2011年数据为样本期间，通过ELES模型进行实证分析，得出我国城镇居民各类消费支出的边际消费倾向、自价格弹性、交叉价格弹性以及收入弹性。第四部分基于1996——2011年的数据，实证研究了食品价格波动对我国城镇居民消费结构的影响，结果表明，食品价格波动对我国城镇居民消费支出有长期影响，且对每类消费支出产生不同的冲击贡献率。文章最后是本文的结论及相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption is a problem that many countries attach great importance to. China is a populous country. The growth of consumer demand can greatly promote the expansion of production scale and the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the economy. Urban residents' consumption expenditure accounted for a large proportion of the country's total consumption expenditure, reaching 77.3 percent in 2011. In recent years, with the aggravation of the inflationary pressure, the food price is rising constantly, and further driving the inflation. Under the influence of such economic environment, how to affect the consumption structure of the urban residents in our country becomes a problem worth paying attention to. In general, the consumption structure of urban residents is expressed by the share of consumer expenditure. What kind of impact will food price fluctuation have on the consumption structure of urban residents in our country? the study on this issue will help us to grasp the hot spots of residents' consumption demand in time, formulate reasonable policies, improve residents' living standards, and effectively stimulate domestic demand. To promote the healthy development of economy is a subject that our country must face at present and in the future, and it is also a problem that must be solved in the course of social development. This paper combines the theory with the empirical analysis, through the Eles model, cointegration test, variance decomposition analysis, using Eviews6.0 economic analysis software to study and discuss the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The conclusion is drawn that the food price affects the consumption structure of urban residents in the short and long term. In the short term, during the sample period of 2011, the price elasticity analysis shows that the cross-elasticity of all kinds of consumer goods to food prices in the consumption structure of urban residents in China is negative. Higher food prices will have an crowding out effect on consumer demand in the short term. In the long run, empirical analysis using data from 1996 to 2011 shows that, except for the categories of clothing and household equipment and services, there is a negative correlation between other categories of consumer goods and food prices, because, With the improvement of living standards, clothing and household equipment services have gradually become the necessities of life, with certain demand rigidity. Even if food prices rise, it will not reduce the expenditure on these two categories of consumer goods. On the contrary, there will be an increase in consumer expenditure due to the rise of the price level, and it also shows that the consumption ability of Chinese residents has been improved. This paper is divided into the following parts: the first part describes the background and significance of the article, introduces the domestic and foreign scholars on the consumption structure of various aspects of research and the main framework of this paper. The second part introduces the relevant theories and several research methods used in the empirical part of this paper. It includes the theoretical basis of price effect, unit root test, cointegration theory, VEC model and variance decomposition. The third part takes 2011 data as the sample period, through the Eles model carries on the empirical analysis, obtains our country urban resident each kind of consumption expenditure marginal consumption tendency, the self-price elasticity, the cross-price elasticity and the income elasticity. The fourth part, based on the data from 1996 to 2011, empirically studies the impact of food price fluctuation on the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The results show that food price fluctuation has a long-term impact on the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China. And to each kind of consumer expenditure produces the different impact contribution rate. The last part of the article is the conclusion of this paper and the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126.1;F726

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