收入分配差距对我国居民消费的影响分析

发布时间：2018-07-05 10:30

本文选题：消费需求 + 收入分配差距　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费作为拉动经济的“三驾马车”之一,其重要地位却在我国被长期忽视。2007年的全球金融危机导致外需下降、出口受阻,且长期高投资引致的经济结构失调弊端显现,阻滞了我国经济的增长,使得人们重新认识到消费的重要性。自改革开放以来,伴随着居民消费下降的另一个现象就是收入分配差距的逐步扩大。一些学者开始关注这两者之间的内在联系。本文从收入分配差距扩大的角度,分析了我国居民消费率呈长期下降的趋势的原因,并对调节收入分配差距,拉动国内消费提出一些可行性建议,对于我国培育新的经济增长点,实现经济可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文以收入分配差距扩大对社会总消费的影响为研究对象,从不同收入阶层的储蓄动机入手,分析了收入分配差距扩大对社会总消费的影响机制。由于不同收入阶层群体面临的内在预期和外部约束条件不同,其储蓄倾向和消费行为也不同。本文在效用最大化假设下,将个体的储蓄动机细化为生命周期储蓄动机、预防性储蓄动机、流动性约束储蓄动机和遗赠储蓄动机,并从分析收入与各项储蓄动机倾向的关系入手,得出一个人的总储蓄倾向大小与收入呈“U”形关系的结论。由此推出：一个社会的收入分配差距越小,中等收入阶层人数占比越大,社会总消费倾向越高。本文运用实证分析方法,检验基尼系数与居民消费率的长期协整关系,并分别对我国城乡居民消费倾向的影响因素进行回归分析。实证分析发现：(1)基尼系数与我国居民消费率之间呈负相关关系,长期的收入分配不公必将导致社会的总消费下降,要想拉动内需,必须进行收入分配改革,培育中等收入阶层；(2)在影响居民消费倾向的因素中,居民收入增长的波动是最重要的影响因素,居民预期未来收入风险越大,其预防性储蓄越多,消费越少。要扩大内需,必须采取宏观调控措施来减少人们的不确定性预期；(3)由于我国消费信贷市场还不发达,信贷因素对居民消费的影响甚微,但金融体系在改善收入分配和促进消费中的作用不可忽视。而这种作用的发挥需要政府宏观政策的引导。本文的创新之处在于,在袁志刚,朱国林(2002)的收入与储蓄倾向模型上进行完善和修正,区分了由于预期到意外支出条件下无法通过借贷来弥补财政缺口而进行的提前储蓄和为完成计划内消费安排而进行的储蓄。在原模型的基础上,加入了流动性约束储蓄倾向,并分析了消费信贷和金融发展对促进居民消费和改善收入分配的影响。
[Abstract]:As one of the "troika" to stimulate the economy, the important position of consumption has been neglected for a long time in our country. The global financial crisis in 2007 led to the decline of external demand, the obstruction of exports, and the maladjustment of economic structure caused by long-term high investment. Block the growth of our country economy, make people realize the importance of consumption again. Since the reform and opening up, with the decline of household consumption, the income distribution gap is gradually widening. Some scholars have begun to pay attention to the internal relationship between the two. From the angle of widening income distribution gap, this paper analyzes the reasons why the consumption rate of Chinese residents is decreasing for a long time, and puts forward some feasible suggestions to adjust the income distribution gap and stimulate domestic consumption. It is of great practical significance for China to cultivate new economic growth points and realize sustainable economic development. This paper focuses on the influence of the widening of income distribution gap on the total social consumption and analyzes the influence mechanism of the widening income distribution gap on the total social consumption from the perspective of the savings motivation of different income groups. Because different income groups are faced with different internal expectations and external constraints, their savings tendency and consumption behavior are also different. Under the hypothesis of utility maximization, this paper classifies individual savings motivation into life-cycle savings motivation, precautionary savings motivation, liquidity constraint savings motivation and legacy savings motivation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the income and the propensity to save, the conclusion is drawn that the total saving tendency of a person has a "U" relationship with the income. The smaller the income distribution gap is, the larger the middle income class is, and the higher the social consumption tendency is. This paper uses the empirical analysis method to test the long-term cointegration relationship between the Gini coefficient and the resident consumption rate, and carries on the regression analysis to the influencing factors of the consumption tendency of the urban and rural residents in China. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) there is a negative correlation between the Gini coefficient and the consumption rate of Chinese residents. The long-term unfair income distribution will lead to the decline of the total consumption of the society. In order to stimulate domestic demand, the reform of income distribution must be carried out. (2) the fluctuation of residents' income growth is the most important factor in influencing the consumption tendency of residents. The greater the income risk is, the more precautionary savings are, and the less consumption is. In order to expand domestic demand, macro-control measures must be taken to reduce people's uncertain expectations. (3) as the consumer credit market in China is still underdeveloped, the impact of credit factors on residents' consumption is minimal. But the role of the financial system in improving income distribution and promoting consumption cannot be ignored. And this kind of function display needs the guidance of government macroscopical policy. The innovation of this paper is that the model of income and savings propensity of Yuan Zhigang and Zhu Guolin (2002) is improved and revised. A distinction is made between early savings that cannot be financed by borrowing in anticipation of unforeseen spending conditions and savings made to complete planned consumption arrangements. On the basis of the original model, the liquidity constraint saving tendency is added, and the influence of consumer credit and financial development on promoting residents' consumption and improving income distribution is analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F124.7;F224

【参考文献】