基于年龄结构的我国居民消费研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 12:39

  本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 消费水平　； 参考：《中央财经大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济取得了世界瞩目的高增长,2010年,中国的GDP赶超日本,成为世界第二大经济体,但是在经济发展质量和人民生活水平方面,中国与发达国家还有较大的差距。中国正面临经济转型的关键时期,经济增长存在着明显的结构性矛盾,其中的突出问题就是经济增长主要依靠投资和出口来拉动,居民消费需求持续低迷,这已经成为困扰中国经济可持续发展的难题之一。随着2008年全球金融危机的爆发,中国经济发展承受着巨大的外部压力,这迫使中国必须扭转过度依赖投资和出口的经济增长模式,充分发挥内需对经济增长的拉动作用。为此,党的十八大进一步明确提出:“加快形成新的经济发展方式,把推动发展的立足点转到提高质量和效益上来,其中一个重要的发展方式就是使经济发展更多地依靠内需特别是消费需求来拉动”。中国实现了30多年的高速经济增长,其人口结构也迅速发生转变,表现为生育率持续下降,劳动年龄人口增长停滞并转向负增长,人口老龄化发展迅速。2013年我国15—59岁劳动年龄人口为91954万人,比上年减少1773万人,15—59岁劳动年龄人口的绝对数量已经连续两年出现下降,从2011年起,我国15—64岁劳动年龄人口比重则开始下降,2013年我国15—64岁劳动年龄人口比重下降为72.8%,而65岁及以上人口比重则上升到9.7%。由于原始的人口基数庞大、人口转变在短时间内完成,因此我国不仅是世界上人口最多的国家,并且将加入老龄人口最多,人口老龄化速度最快的国家行列,这种人口状况将持续很长的一段时间。中国人口数量和人口结构的演变是否是影响居民消费的重要因素?如何在确保不牺牲经济增长的同时,实现经济主要由出口和投资拉动向更多的依靠国内需求拉动?如何结合显著的人口结构变化来扩大内需,刺激居民消费?中国未来所要面临的这些挑战,对于改善居民福利和实施政府宏观调控都具有重要的影响。中国特殊的人口年龄结构和消费现状凸显人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响研究更加具有必要性。事实上,不同年龄阶段的人口,其消费能力、消费倾向、消费心理、消费习惯等存在显著差异,人口年龄结构变量的变动经过各种途径,最终将影响传导到消费需求上来。人口年龄结构变动带来的冲击是错综复杂的,既作用于经济领域,也影响到社会领域;在宏观层面上,人口年龄结构变动会对消费、储蓄、经济增长等产生影响,在微观层面上,会对家庭结构改变、养育子女、赡养老人等产生影响。遗憾的是,关于人口年龄结构变动与居民消费关系的全面系统研究,在国内仍比较缺乏和薄弱。深入探讨人口年龄结构变动造成的多种消费效应,对于顺利实现经济增长方式从投资驱动型和出口驱动型向消费驱动型转变,对于保持我国经济持续健康稳定发展、改善民生福祉具有重要政策含义。论文着力探讨人口年龄结构变动及其对居民消费的影响。内容主要围绕以下三个方面展开:第一,从生育率变动、劳动年龄人口变动以及老龄化等三个角度构建人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的作用机制。第二,建立人口年龄结构与居民消费的宏观与微观分析框架,一方面从微观视角构建微观调查的伪面板数据,分析人口年龄结构对居民消费水平、消费结构、消费差距的影响;另一方面从宏观视角构建省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型、空间面板数据模型考察人口年龄结构变动对居民消费结构、消费差距的影响。第三,提出人口年龄结构变动背景下促进居民消费的对策建议,主要围绕“人口年龄结构优势的延长与利用战略”和“人口年龄结构优势消逝下的替代和转换战略”两大部分展开。本论文总共包括7章。第1章是导论。这一章阐述论文的选题背景和研究意义,提出研究思路,介绍研究内容和研究框架,以及总结论文的创新点和不足之处,并指出未来进一步研究的方向。第2章是理论基础与文献综述。首先是经典相关理论的回顾,主要对人口转变理论、生命周期理论、家庭储蓄需求模型、世代交叠模型等经典理论进行了系统回顾;其次是分析了人口年龄结构影响居民消费的作用机制,主要从三个方面展开:生育率变动的影响、劳动年龄人口变动的影响和人口老龄化的影响;最后对国内外相关经验研究进行了综述,分别从宏观视角与微观视角;年龄结构与消费需求、消费结构、消费差距等方面展开,并对国内外研究现状进行了评介,为后文的深入分析提供基础和支撑。第3章是我国人口年龄结构与居民消费的变动历程与现状分析。主要从我国人口发展历程、人口转型特征等方面对我国人口年龄结构的总体现状和发展趋势进行详细分析和介绍;并围绕着居民的消费需求、消费结构和消费差距等几个主题对我国城乡居民的消费现状进行描述。得出的主要结论有:(1)我国的人口转型在计划生育政策的影响下在非常短的时间内迅速完成,人口发展已经进入到低出生率、低死亡率、低自然增长率的平稳低增长阶段;我国的生育率逐年稳步降低,并于2000年进入了老龄化社会;我国的老龄化具有规模大、发展迅速,地区差异明显和未富先老等特点。(2)我国居民消费水平不高,居民消费增速慢于经济增长速度,消费倾向有下降趋势,消费需求乏力;改革开放以来居民消费结构实现了优化升级,但在消费品供给结构、消费环境和消费政策方面还存在很多不足;城镇居民内部、农村居民内部以及城乡居民之间存在着较大的消费差距。第4章是人口年龄分布与居民消费支出。首先介绍组群分析方法并进行了理论推导,然后构造出伪面板数据(pseudopaneldata),基于中国社会状况综合调查(css)2006、2008和2011年的数据,分别将城镇居民和农村居民的消费支出分解为年龄效应和出生组效应,考察年龄变动和出生年代差异对居民消费的影响,最后引入养老保障因素,讨论了不同养老保障水平下居民消费水平的年龄效应是否存在差异。得到的基本结论有:(1)消费支出的年龄效应呈现出明显的“驼峰特征”,并且驼峰大概出现于45—50岁之间,这表明我国居民消费支出并不符合传统的生命周期理论,原因在于中国居民的消费还保持着自己特有的规律和特征,由于传统文化及现实国情的影响,中国居民在其生命的不同年龄阶段有特定的刚需,因此难以在生命周期中平滑其一生的消费。(2)居民消费支出的出生组效应并不十分显著,出生于1957—1965年间的群体消费水平最低;(3)养老保障因素对年龄效应有明显的影响,但在城乡之间有显著差异,养老保障对城镇居民主要产生的是“资产替代效应”,而对农村居民还产生了“引致退休效应”;(4)其他因素,如收入水平、财富水平和教育水平的提高有利于消费水平的提升。第5章是人口年龄结构变动与居民消费结构。首先构建一个关于消费结构的理论框架,从理论上探寻人口年龄结构对消费结构的影响作用,并对分位数回归分析方法进行介绍;接着使用css调查数据,从微观层面估计居民消费结构的年龄效应以及考察家庭内部人口结构对消费结构的影响;最后基于宏观视角,将少儿抚养比和老年抚养比两个变量引入模型,分城乡研究年龄结构的变化对居民家庭消费结构的影响。微观层面估计结果显示:居民消费结构的年龄效应较为显著,且城乡居民表现出较为一致的趋势,总体而言少儿人口比重对居民消费结构的影响作用较为微弱;老年人口比重对消费结构的影响则较为复杂,城乡表现并不完全一致。宏观层面的估计结果显示:在城镇样本中,少儿抚养比的上升提高了生存型消费支出的比重,老年抚养比上升仅对收入水平较高家庭的生存型消费比重产生正影响,越富裕的家庭,子女数量变动对发展型消费比重的影响越小,养老负担的加重使得较贫穷的家庭降低了发展型消费的比重;在农村样本中,家庭收入水平越低,老年抚养比对生存型消费的负影响越显著;老年抚养比上升通过作用于医疗保健支出而对享受型消费产生正影响,对于越富裕的家庭,老年抚养比对享受型消费的影响越弱。第6章是人口年龄结构变动与居民消费差距。在构建一个统计性的框架来进行理论分析的基础上,从微观和宏观层面分别考察人口年龄结构变动对居民消费差距的影响。在微观层面上,一是对城镇样本和农村样本分别分解出消费差距的年龄效应和出生组效应;二是在改进现有分解方法的基础上,融入因素分析法的思想,把消费差距变动分解为老龄化效应、出生组效应和年龄组间效应,并进一步比较了教育、养老保障等因素对消费差距分解结果的影响。对消费差距分解的结果显示,城镇居民消费差距随着年龄的增长而增大,出生年代越晚的群体,其消费差距越大。在宏观层面上,考虑到我国各个地区的社会经济状况在空间上具有依赖性和相关性,选用空间面板数据模型进行了实证分析。得出了与微观层面一致的结论:人口老龄化扩大了居民的消费差距。研究还发现教育不平等也会导致消费差距的扩大,而养老保障的实现,是缩小城镇居民消费差距的有效手段。第7章是结论与对策建议。在对全文的主要结论进行总结的基础上,结合实证研究结论,围绕“人口年龄结构优势的延长与利用战略”和“人口年龄结构优势消逝下的替代和转换战略”两大部分,就人口年龄结构变动背景下如何促进居民消费、扩大内需提出对策建议。参考已有的研究成果,本文在以下几个方面做出了创新:第一,本文以人口年龄结构为研究切入点,基于消费理论,以我国老龄化和消费乏力为现实背景,从消费水平、消费结构以及消费差距等方面较为全面、系统地考察了人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响,构造了较为完整的人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的分析框架,将统计学、人口社会学与消费经济学相关学科知识结合,对跨学科的交叉研究进行了有益的尝试。第二,使用宏观面板数据与微观调查数据相结合的手段,宏观数据分析结果与微观数据分析互相补充、相互验证,力求更加深入、全面和正确的考察人口年龄结构对中国居民消费的影响,避免了集中于对宏观数据进行分析,而缺乏微观数据分析的缺陷。第三,构造出适用于微观调查的伪面板数据,并对使用到的组群分析方法进行了理论推导、结合面板分位数回归模型、空间面板数据模型等进行实证分析,以提高估计结果的准确性,并丰富了人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的研究工具。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved high growth in the world's attention. In 2010, China's GDP overtook Japan and became the second largest economy in the world. However, there is a big gap between China and the developed countries in the quality of economic development and the living standard of the people. China is facing a critical period of economic transformation, and the economic growth is obvious. The outstanding problem is that the economic growth is mainly driven by investment and export, and the consumer demand continues to be depressed. This has become one of the difficult problems that plagued the sustainable development of China's economy. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China's economic development bears enormous external pressure, which compels China to do so. It is necessary to reverse the economic growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export and make full use of the stimulating effect of domestic demand on economic growth. To this end, the eighteen Party of the party further clarified that "to speed up the formation of new economic development mode and to move the foothold of development to the improvement of quality and efficiency, one of the most important ways of development is to make it possible." Economic development depends more on domestic demand, especially consumption demand. China has achieved rapid economic growth for more than 30 years. Its population structure has also changed rapidly. The growth rate of the population is declining, the growth of the working age population is stagnating and turning to negative growth. The population aging is developing rapidly in.2013 years, and the population of 15 to 59 years of age of our country is 9. 19 million 540 thousand people, a decrease of 17 million 730 thousand people over the previous year, the absolute number of working age population of 15 to 59 years old has been declining for two consecutive years. From 2011, the proportion of labor age population in our country from 15 to 64 years began to decline. In 2013, the proportion of the labor age population of 15 to 64 years in China declined to 72.8%, while the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above rose to 9.7%. due to the original. The population of China is not only the most populous country in the world, but also the country with the largest population and the fastest aging population in the world. This population will continue for a long period of time. How is the important factor for the consumption of the people? How to ensure that the economy is driven more by export and investment to more domestic demand while ensuring that economic growth is not sacrificed? How to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption in combination with significant demographic changes? The challenges facing China in the future are to improve the welfare and implementation of the residents. The macro regulation and control of the government have an important influence. China's special population age structure and consumption status highlight the necessity of the study on the influence of population age structure on the consumption of residents. In fact, there are significant differences in consumption, consumption, consumption psychology and consumption habits between people of different ages, and the age structure of population. Changes in variables pass through various channels and ultimately affect consumption demand. The impact of changes in population age structure is intricate, both in the economic field and in the social field; at the macro level, the changes in population age structure will affect consumption, savings, economic growth and so on, at the micro level. It is regrettable that a comprehensive and systematic study of the changes in the age structure of the population and the relationship between the residents' consumption is still relatively short and weak in China. It is a deep study of the various consumption effects caused by the changes in the age structure of the population, which is driven by investment in the smooth realization of the economic growth mode. The transformation of type and export driven type to consumer driven type has important policy implications for maintaining the sustained, healthy and stable development of our economy and improving the well-being of people's livelihood. The paper focuses on the changes in population age structure and its impact on Residents' consumption. The content is mainly focused on the following three aspects: first, from the change of fertility and the labor age population Three angles, such as change and aging, to construct the mechanism of population age structure changes to the consumption of residents. Second, establish the macro and micro analysis framework of population age structure and consumption, on the one hand, construct pseudo panel data from micro perspective, and analyze the consumption level, consumption structure and elimination of population age structure. On the other hand, we build the inter provincial panel data from the macro perspective, use the panel quantile regression model and the spatial panel data model to investigate the influence of the population age structure change on the consumption structure and the consumption gap. Third, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the consumption of the population under the background of the population age structure change. The extension and utilization strategy of population age structure and the strategy of substitution and conversion of population age structure advantage are two parts. This paper includes 7 chapters. The first chapter is introduction. This chapter expounds the background and significance of the topic, puts forward the research ideas, introduces the content and framework of the research, and summarizes the summary theory. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The first is the review of the classical related theories, which mainly reviewed the classical theory of population transformation theory, life cycle theory, family savings demand model, generation overlapping model and so on. Secondly, it analyzed the population. The effect mechanism of age structure on consumption is mainly from three aspects: the influence of the change of fertility rate, the influence of the change of the labor age population and the influence of the aging of the population; finally, it summarizes the relevant experience at home and abroad, from the macroscopic angle of view and the microscopic angle of view, the age structure and the consumption demand, the consumption structure and the consumption difference. The third chapter is the analysis of the changes and status of the population age structure and consumption in our country, mainly from the history of population development, the characteristics of population transformation and other aspects of the overall status and development of the population age structure of our country. The trend is analyzed and introduced in detail, and the consumption demand, consumption structure and consumption gap of the residents are described in detail. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the population transformation of our country is completed rapidly in a very short time under the influence of family planning policy, and the population development has already been developed. Into the low birth rate, low mortality, low natural growth rate of stable low growth stage; China's fertility rate has steadily decreased year by year, and entered the aging society in 2000; China's aging has large scale, rapid development, obvious regional differences and not rich first point. (2) the consumption level of residents in China is not high, and the growth of residents is slow. At the rate of economic growth, the tendency of consumption has a downward trend and the consumption demand is weak. Since the reform and opening up, the consumption structure has been optimized and upgraded, but there are still many shortcomings in the structure of consumer goods supply, the consumption environment and the consumption policy, and there is a large consumption difference between the urban residents, the rural residents and the urban and rural residents. The fourth chapter is the population age distribution and the consumption expenditure. First, the group analysis method is introduced and the theoretical deduction is carried out. Then the pseudo panel data (pseudopaneldata) is constructed. Based on the data of the Chinese social situation comprehensive survey (CSS) in the 20062008 and 2011, the consumption expenditure of urban residents and rural residents is decomposed into age effect respectively. The effect of age variation and birth age difference on Residents' consumption was investigated and the age effect of the residents' consumption level under different old-age security levels was discussed. The basic conclusions were as follows: (1) the age effect of consumption expenditure showed obvious "Hump characteristics". And the hump is probably between 45 and 50 years old, which shows that the consumption expenditure in China does not conform to the traditional life cycle theory. The reason is that the consumption of Chinese residents still maintains its own characteristics and characteristics. Because of the influence of traditional culture and actual conditions, Chinese residents have specific rigid needs at different age stages of their lives, Therefore, it is difficult to smooth the consumption of its life in the life cycle. (2) the effect of the birth group on the consumption expenditure is not very significant, and the group consumption level is the lowest during the period of 1957 to 1965. (3) the pension security factors have a significant influence on the age effect, but there are significant differences between the urban and rural areas, and the old-age security is mainly produced by the urban residents. It is "asset substitution effect", and there is a "retirement effect" for rural residents; (4) other factors, such as income level, wealth level and education level, are beneficial to the improvement of consumption level. The fifth chapter is the change of population age structure and the consumption structure of residents. The effect of population age structure on consumption structure is explored, and the method of quantile regression analysis is introduced. Then, CSS survey data are used to estimate the age effect of the consumption structure and the influence of the family structure on the consumption structure from the micro level. Finally, the children's dependency ratio and the old age are based on the macro perspective. Two variables are introduced into the model to analyze the influence of age structure changes on household consumption structure in urban and rural areas. The results of the micro level estimate show that the age effect of residents' consumption structure is more significant, and the urban and rural residents have a more consistent trend. In general, the impact of the proportion of minority population on the consumption structure of residents is more than that of urban and rural residents. The impact of the proportion of the elderly population on the consumption structure is more complex and the performance of the urban and rural areas is not completely consistent. The macro level results show that the increase of the child dependency ratio in the urban sample increases the proportion of the living expenditure, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio only produces the living consumption proportion of the higher income families. The more affluent families, the less the influence of the number of children on the proportion of the development type consumption, the aggravation of the pension burden makes the poorer families reduce the proportion of the development type consumption; in the rural sample, the lower the family income level, the more significant the negative influence of the old upbringing to the survival type, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio. It has a positive impact on the enjoyment type consumption in the health care expenditure. For the richer families, the older the elderly support is weaker than the enjoyment type consumption. The sixth chapter is the population age structure change and the resident consumption gap. On the basis of the theoretical analysis of a statistical framework, we examine the population from the micro and macro level. The influence of age structure changes on the consumption gap of residents. At the micro level, one is the age effect and birth group effect of the urban sample and the rural sample, respectively. Two, on the basis of improving the existing decomposition methods, integrating the thought of factor analysis, breaking the change of the consumption gap into the aging effect, the birth group. Effect and age group effect, and further compare the influence of education, old-age security and other factors on the result of consumption gap decomposition. The result of the consumption gap decomposition shows that the urban residents' consumption gap increases with the age, the more late the population, the greater the consumption gap. At the macro level, considering the various areas of our country The social and economic status of the district is dependent and relevant in space, and the spatial panel data model is used to carry out an empirical analysis. The conclusion is consistent with the micro level: the aging of the population expands the consumption gap of the residents. The study also finds that the inequality of education will also lead to the expansion of the consumption gap, and the realization of the old-age security is shrinking. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and countermeasures. On the basis of the summary of the main conclusions of the full text, combined with the conclusions of the empirical research, two parts of the "population age structure superiority extension and utilization strategy" and "the substitution and conversion strategy under the population age structure superiority" Suggestions on how to promote household consumption and expand domestic demand under the background of age structure change are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F126.1
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本文编号：2100238