大兴安岭地区低碳经济评价指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-07-18 16:03

【摘要】：全球变暖问题早已成为国际社会关注的焦点，为了在经济快速发展的同时，降低CO2等温室气体的排放，2003年，英国首次提出低碳经济的概念。经过了近10年的努力，低碳经济已逐步从理论走向实践，但是，在实践过程中，如何衡量某一地区低碳经济发展水平，尚无统一标准，因此低碳经济评价指标体系的研究，便成为低碳经济发展的首要任务。本文基于对低碳经济内涵的理解，立足于国内外低碳经济现有研究状况，结合大兴安岭地区特点，从经济发展、能源消耗、社会科技、环境管理等4个方面收集与低碳经济相关的22个指标的统计数值，并利用灰色关联法从其中筛选出16个指标，构建大兴安岭地区低碳经济评价指标体系。运用灰色综合评价法，对大兴安岭地区2001~2010年低碳经济发展水平进行分析研究，通过与国内平均水平的对比，得出大兴安岭地区在过去10年间，低碳经济综合指数在0.3642~0.5614之间，优于全国平均水平，地区低碳经济发展良好的结论。在此基础上，，利用GM（1,1）预测模型，对评价体系内各指标进行预测分析，结果显示，至2011~2020年，大兴安岭地区低碳经济综合指数虽然稳步提升，但是与全国平均水平的优势差距逐年缩小，地区资源禀赋和环境质量的优势逐年淡化。为维持大兴安岭地区低碳经济发展示范作用，根据体系内各指标GM（1,1）模型的预测结果，挑选预测值低于国家平均水平的7项指标，运用均匀设计方法建立优化方案，结合理论最优结果和大兴安岭地区实际情况，以低碳经济综合指数优于全国平均水平20%作为地区2020年低碳经济发展目标，并依据各指标在备选方案中的优化条件进行比选，从指标贡献程度、提升难易、环境管理水平、资金投入等方面综合考虑，并最终确定优化方案。经优化后，大兴安岭地区2020年低碳经济综合指数可达0.8100比预测值0.6964提升16.3%，高于全国平均水平20.41%。针对地区发展过程中存在的问题，结合优化方案，从提高经济水平、改善居民生活、调整能源结构、加强环境管理4个角度提出地区低碳经济发展措施与对策。
[Abstract]:Global warming has long been the focus of attention of the international community. In order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions such as CO _ 2 at the same time of rapid economic development, Britain put forward the concept of low-carbon economy for the first time in 2003. After nearly 10 years' efforts, low-carbon economy has gradually moved from theory to practice. However, in the process of practice, there is no uniform standard for how to measure the development level of low-carbon economy in a certain region. Become the first task of low-carbon economy development. Based on the understanding of the connotation of low-carbon economy, the present research situation of low-carbon economy at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of Daxing'anling region, this paper focuses on economic development, energy consumption, social science and technology. The statistical values of 22 indexes related to low carbon economy were collected from four aspects of environmental management, and 16 indexes were screened out by grey correlation method, and the evaluation index system of low carbon economy in Daxing'an Mountains was constructed. The development level of low carbon economy in Daxinganling region from 2001 to 2010 is analyzed by using the grey comprehensive evaluation method. By comparing with the domestic average, it is concluded that the comprehensive index of low carbon economy in Daxinganling region in the past 10 years is between 0.3642 and 0.5614. Better than the national average, regional low-carbon economic development good conclusion. On this basis, using GM (1Q1) forecasting model, the indexes in the evaluation system are forecasted and analyzed. The results show that the comprehensive index of low carbon economy in Daxinganling region has been steadily increased by 2011-2020. But the advantage gap with the national average level is narrowed year by year, the superiority of regional resource endowment and environmental quality is desalinated year by year. In order to maintain the demonstration role of low-carbon economic development in Daxing'anling region, according to the prediction results of GM (1 + 1) model in the system, 7 indexes whose predicted values are lower than the national average are selected, and the optimization scheme is established by using uniform design method. Combined with the optimal results of theory and the actual situation in Daxing'an Mountains, the low-carbon economic comprehensive index is better than the national average level by 20% as the regional low carbon economic development target by 2020, and according to the optimized conditions of each index in the alternative scheme, From the index contribution degree, improve the difficulty, environmental management level, capital investment and other aspects of comprehensive consideration, and finally determine the optimization scheme. After optimization, the comprehensive index of low-carbon economy in Daxinganling region in 2020 can reach 0.8100, which is 16.3 times higher than the forecast value of 0.6964, and is higher than the national average level of 20.41. In view of the problems existing in the process of regional development, combined with the optimization scheme, this paper puts forward the development measures and countermeasures of low carbon economy in the region from the four angles of raising the economic level, improving the residents' life, adjusting the energy structure and strengthening the environmental management.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X22;F124.5

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