广东省碳排放的影响因素分析及趋势预测

发布时间：2018-07-20 19:43

【摘要】：全球环境问题日益尖锐，中国在能源和环境方面面临着巨大的压力。广东省作为我国经济第一大省，GDP一直维持10%以上的增长率，高速经济发展的同时，带来高污染、高排放、高能耗等严重环境问题，成为广东省经济可持续发展的制约性因素。广东省目前正处于工业化高速发展阶段，人均二氧化碳排放量已高于日本、美国等发达国家，开展碳减排工作，发展低碳经济成为当前紧急任务。因此，开展广东省的能源消费和二氧化碳问题的研究、制定对应的政策措施具有非常重要的意义。本研究首先测算了广东省2000-2010年的CO2排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量和单位能耗CO2排放量，在此基础上对分能源、分行业的二氧化碳排放量进行了估算，结果表明广东省能源消费的CO2排放总量和人均CO2排放量不断上升，万元GDP碳排放量呈下降趋势，原煤的消费是碳排放的主要来源，工业碳排放是全省能源消费碳排放的主体，其中工业能源总消费量最大的门类是制造业。其次，本文运用对数平均迪式分解（LMDI）方法将广东省人均二氧化碳排放变动分解为碳排放系数、能源消费强度、能源消费结构、人均GDP四大因素，建立广东省人均碳排放的因素分解模型，衡量各因素对广东人均碳排放的贡献率；其中能源消耗强度作为影响碳排放量的最主要原因之一，，本文又进一步探讨了三大产业能耗强度对总能耗强度的贡献率，结果表明经济发展效应对广东省能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大，第二产业能耗强度是影响能源消费强度下降的最主要原因。最后，依据2000-2010年广东省碳排放数据，通过灰色GM(1,l)模型，对广东省碳排放进行了短期预测，如果广东省不改变现今的经济发展政策、人口政策和能源等政策，那么广东的碳排放量将处于逐年增长的趋势，到2016年广东省碳排放量将达到7.4559亿吨，可见“十二五”期间二氧化碳减排形势严峻。本文最后针对研究结果,为广东省如何实现碳减排提出了具体的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Global environmental problems are becoming increasingly acute, China is facing tremendous pressure in energy and environment. Guangdong Province, as the largest province in China, has maintained a GDP growth rate of more than 10%. The rapid economic development has brought serious environmental problems, such as high pollution, high emission and high energy consumption, and has become a restrictive factor for the sustainable economic development of Guangdong Province. At present, Guangdong Province is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization, and its per capita carbon dioxide emissions are higher than those of developed countries such as Japan and the United States. Therefore, developing low-carbon economy has become an urgent task. Therefore, it is of great significance to study energy consumption and carbon dioxide in Guangdong Province and formulate corresponding policies and measures. In this study, the CO2 emissions per unit GDP, CO2 emissions per unit GDP and CO2 emissions per unit energy consumption of Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010 were measured. The results show that the total CO2 emission and per capita CO2 emission of energy consumption in Guangdong Province are increasing, the carbon emission of ten thousand yuan GDP is decreasing, the consumption of raw coal is the main source of carbon emission, and the industrial carbon emission is the main part of energy consumption carbon emission in Guangdong Province. The largest category of total industrial energy consumption is manufacturing. Secondly, this paper uses the logarithmic average di decomposition (LMDI) method to decompose the change of per capita carbon dioxide emissions into four factors: carbon emission coefficient, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and GDP per capita. The factor decomposition model of per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province is established to measure the contribution of each factor to the per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, in which the intensity of energy consumption is one of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions. The contribution rate of energy consumption intensity of three industries to total energy consumption intensity is further discussed in this paper. The results show that economic development effect has the largest contribution to energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangdong Province. The energy consumption intensity of the secondary industry is the main reason for the decrease of the energy consumption intensity. Finally, based on the data of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2010, the paper makes a short-term prediction of the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province through the Grey GM (1L) model. If Guangdong does not change its current economic development policies, population policies and energy policies, etc. So, Guangdong's carbon emissions will be increasing year by year. By 2016, Guangdong's carbon emissions will reach 745.59 million tons, which shows that the situation of carbon dioxide reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is grim. In the end, the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on how to achieve carbon emission reduction in Guangdong Province.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F127

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