金融发展对产业结构升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 14:33

【摘要】：金融是现代经济的核心,在优化资源配置与促进产业结构升级中举足轻重；江苏“十二五”规划、国家产业结构调整目录的出台意味着当前我省正面临着经济的转型升级。在此背景下,研究如何更好地发挥江苏金融对产业结构升级的支持作用,进而促进我省经济发展,具有较强的理论和现实意义。本文在文献回顾的基础上,从理论和实证上研究了江苏金融发展对产业结构升级调整的影响。本文的主要研究集中如下： 1、在理论研究上,首先,本文分析了金融影响产业结构升级的传递机制与一般作用机制、银行信贷与资本市场对产业结构升级调整的影响机理以及一个理论模型；其次,分别概述和评价了支持产业结构升级的两种金融发展模式——银行主导型和资本市场主导型,作为国际经验借鉴。 2、在描述性分析上,分别从固定资产投资、银行信贷、资本市场与利用外资四个角度详细分析了金融发展对江苏产业结构升级的影响。研究发现：江苏固定资产投资结构的变动趋势与产业结构的变动趋势基本一致,第二、三产业的投资收益较高。银行信贷对三大产业的投入都大大促进了各自产业的发展,但是信贷结构与产业结构出现一定程度的偏离。江苏上市公司产业结构体现为工业化推动型,新兴产业与现代服务业的上市公司偏少,与三大产业的产业结构有一定差距,未能反映产业结构演化方向。外资的进入促进了我省技术进步和产业结构优化升级。 3、在实证研究上,本文搜集了江苏1986-2010年间的相关历史数据,金融发展从金融规模、金融结构、金融效率三个方面来考察,分别选择金融相关率、金融结构比率、贷存率与金融产出率作为解释变量,选择产业结构升级率作为被解释变量,建立经济计量模型,分析江苏金融发展对产业结构升级的影响。得知金融相关率、金融产出率都促进我省产业结构升级；金融结构比率、贷存率在短期对产业结构升级的支持作用未能显现；而在长期,两者都能以较大力度加快产业结构升级,说明了两者对我省产业结构升级的支持作用具有一定的滞后性。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议：加强金融资本与产业资本的融合；建立健全的金融服务体系；建立多层次资本市场体系；尽快建立风险投资体系；大力发展科技金融。在经济转型升级的时代背景下,为我省如何更好发挥金融发展对产业结构升级的促进作用,提供了一些有益指导。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy, which plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. Under this background, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to better play the role of Jiangsu finance in supporting the upgrading of industrial structure so as to promote the economic development of our province. On the basis of literature review, this paper studies the influence of Jiangsu financial development on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment theoretically and empirically. The main research focus of this paper is as follows: 1. In the theoretical research, firstly, this paper analyzes the transfer mechanism and general mechanism of financial impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. The influence mechanism of bank credit and capital market on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment and a theoretical model. Secondly, the paper summarizes and evaluates two kinds of financial development models supporting industrial structure upgrading, namely, bank-oriented and capital-market-oriented. As a reference for international experience, the paper analyzes the impact of financial development on the upgrading of Jiangsu's industrial structure from four angles of fixed asset investment, bank credit, capital market and foreign capital utilization respectively in terms of descriptive analysis. It is found that the change trend of investment structure of fixed assets in Jiangsu is basically consistent with that of industrial structure, and the investment returns of the second and third industries are higher. The investment of bank credit to the three industries greatly promotes the development of their respective industries, but the credit structure deviates from the industrial structure to a certain extent. The industrial structure of the listed companies in Jiangsu Province is characterized by industrialization promotion. There are few listed companies in the emerging industries and the modern service industries, and there is a certain gap with the industrial structure of the three major industries, which fails to reflect the direction of the evolution of the industrial structure. The entry of foreign capital has promoted the technological progress and industrial structure optimization and upgrading of our province. 3. In the empirical research, this paper collects the relevant historical data of Jiangsu Province from 1986 to 2010, the financial development from the financial scale, the financial structure, Financial efficiency is investigated from three aspects: financial correlation rate, financial structure ratio, loan-to-deposit ratio and financial output ratio as explanatory variables, and industrial structure upgrading rate as explained variable to establish econometric model. This paper analyzes the impact of Jiangsu financial development on the upgrading of industrial structure. We know that the financial correlation rate and the financial output rate promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in our province; the financial structure ratio and the loan-deposit ratio can not support the upgrading of the industrial structure in the short term; but in the long run, Both of them can speed up the upgrading of industrial structure with a great effort, which shows that they have a certain lag in supporting the upgrading of industrial structure in our province. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions: to strengthen the integration of financial capital and industrial capital; to establish a sound financial service system; to establish a multi-level capital market system; to establish a venture capital system as soon as possible; and to vigorously develop science and technology finance. Under the background of economic transformation and upgrading, this paper provides some useful guidance on how to play the role of financial development in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure in our province.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F121.3;F224

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