辽宁省人口老龄化对消费水平和结构的影响
发布时间：2018-07-24 15:12
【摘要】：随着人口的不断增长和经济的迅猛发展，生育率和死亡率的降低也直接加快了人口老龄化的进程，，人口老龄化将是人类社会不可逾越的一个阶段。目前人口老龄化已经成为了一个世界性的话题，我国作为发展中国家的典型代表，老年人口高龄化程度不断加深而且“未富先老”现象尤为明显。我国在经济发展尚不全面时进入到了人口老龄化这一阶段，对于我国的未来发展也是一个重大的挑战。 辽宁省作为我国较早进入人口老龄化省份的典型代表，人口老龄化程度日趋加剧。研究发现，辽宁省人口老龄化具有增长速度快、高龄化、“空巢现象”日趋严重等特点。随着辽宁省人口出生率的不断下降，老年人口比重呈现不断上升趋势，必将对辽宁省整体的消费水平产生影响。而老年人口的消费需求、消费能力和消费结构与其他年龄阶段的人口明显存在很大差异，因此老年人口比重的增加会对辽宁省居民消费水平和消费结构的转变产生重大影响。 本文第一部分首先全面介绍了辽宁省老年人口的基本情况，主要包括辽宁省人口老龄化的现状和基于这些现状所表现出的特点；第二部分对辽宁省人口老龄化对消费水平的影响进行了实证分析，以辽宁省1990年—2011年的数据为基础，对辽宁省的GDP、消费等变量以1990年为基期进行处理，得出人口老龄化与辽宁省消费水平之间的负相关关系；第三部分分别对辽宁省2005年到2011年间城镇居民消费结构和农村居民消费结构的变化情况进行了介绍，又分析了老年人口消费需求的变化情况，老年人口在医疗保健、精神文化、社会服务和衣着服饰等方面的需求不断增加。之后运用了灰色关联度方法对辽宁省老年人口比重对消费结构的影响进行实证分析，从而得出老年人口在家庭设备用品及服务、居住和教育文化娱乐服务需求方面的消费支出增长速度较快，而在衣着服饰和医疗保健服务需求方面的消费支出减少；本文的最后一部分主要对前文进行概括总结，提出了优化辽宁省老年人口消费水平及消费结构的对策：首先要想促进老年人口进行消费，必须要提高老年人口的收入水平，这才能够更好的提高辽宁省老年人口的生活质量；其次要适当放宽生育政策，进而改善辽宁省的老年人口抚养比，缓解人口金字塔底部收缩的压力；第三，加快完善医疗体制改革，进而保障更多的高龄和失能老人晚年生活的质量；最后要加强养老服务业，老年人口身体状况随着年龄增长会不断下降，社会和家庭要承担起照顾老人的责任，加快发展养老产业，让老年人生活更加舒适安心。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of population and the rapid development of economy, the decline of fertility and mortality directly speeds up the process of population aging. Population aging will be an insurmountable stage of human society. At present, the aging of population has become a worldwide topic. As a typical representative of developing countries, the aging of the elderly population is deepening and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" is particularly obvious. China has entered the stage of population aging at the time of incomplete economic development, which is also a major challenge to the future development of our country. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of China's early entry into the province of population aging, the degree of population aging is becoming more and more serious. It is found that the aging population in Liaoning Province has the characteristics of rapid growth, aging, and "empty nest phenomenon". With the decline of the birth rate in Liaoning Province, the proportion of the elderly population is increasing, which will affect the consumption level of Liaoning Province as a whole. However, the consumption demand, consumption ability and consumption structure of the elderly population are obviously different from those of other age groups, so the increase of the proportion of the elderly population will have a great impact on the change of consumption level and consumption structure in Liaoning Province. The first part of this paper introduces the basic situation of Liaoning Province's elderly population, mainly including the current situation of Liaoning Province's aging population and the characteristics based on the present situation. The second part has carried on the empirical analysis to the Liaoning Province population aging to the consumption level influence, based on the Liaoning Province 1990-2011 data, carries on the processing to the Liaoning Province's GDP, the consumption and so on variables with 1990 as the base period. The third part introduces the changes of consumption structure of urban residents and rural residents from 2005 to 2011 in Liaoning Province. The demand for medical care, spiritual culture, social service and clothing is increasing. Then, the paper analyzes the effect of the proportion of the elderly population on the consumption structure of Liaoning Province by using the grey correlation degree method, and draws the conclusion that the elderly population in the household equipment supplies and services. The demand for residential, educational, cultural and recreational services has increased rapidly, while the demand for clothing, clothing and health care services has decreased. This paper puts forward the countermeasures to optimize the consumption level and consumption structure of the elderly population in Liaoning Province: firstly, in order to promote the elderly population to consume, we must improve the income level of the elderly population in order to better improve the quality of life of the elderly population in Liaoning Province; Secondly, it is necessary to appropriately relax the fertility policy, thereby improving the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Liaoning Province, and alleviating the pressure of contraction at the bottom of the population pyramid; third, to speed up the reform of the medical care system. Thus ensuring the quality of life of more elderly and disabled elderly people in their later years; finally, strengthening the service industry for the aged, the physical condition of the elderly population will continue to decline with the increase of age, and society and families should assume the responsibility of taking care of the elderly. Speed up the development of pension industry, so that the elderly life more comfortable and secure.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2141778
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of population and the rapid development of economy, the decline of fertility and mortality directly speeds up the process of population aging. Population aging will be an insurmountable stage of human society. At present, the aging of population has become a worldwide topic. As a typical representative of developing countries, the aging of the elderly population is deepening and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" is particularly obvious. China has entered the stage of population aging at the time of incomplete economic development, which is also a major challenge to the future development of our country. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of China's early entry into the province of population aging, the degree of population aging is becoming more and more serious. It is found that the aging population in Liaoning Province has the characteristics of rapid growth, aging, and "empty nest phenomenon". With the decline of the birth rate in Liaoning Province, the proportion of the elderly population is increasing, which will affect the consumption level of Liaoning Province as a whole. However, the consumption demand, consumption ability and consumption structure of the elderly population are obviously different from those of other age groups, so the increase of the proportion of the elderly population will have a great impact on the change of consumption level and consumption structure in Liaoning Province. The first part of this paper introduces the basic situation of Liaoning Province's elderly population, mainly including the current situation of Liaoning Province's aging population and the characteristics based on the present situation. The second part has carried on the empirical analysis to the Liaoning Province population aging to the consumption level influence, based on the Liaoning Province 1990-2011 data, carries on the processing to the Liaoning Province's GDP, the consumption and so on variables with 1990 as the base period. The third part introduces the changes of consumption structure of urban residents and rural residents from 2005 to 2011 in Liaoning Province. The demand for medical care, spiritual culture, social service and clothing is increasing. Then, the paper analyzes the effect of the proportion of the elderly population on the consumption structure of Liaoning Province by using the grey correlation degree method, and draws the conclusion that the elderly population in the household equipment supplies and services. The demand for residential, educational, cultural and recreational services has increased rapidly, while the demand for clothing, clothing and health care services has decreased. This paper puts forward the countermeasures to optimize the consumption level and consumption structure of the elderly population in Liaoning Province: firstly, in order to promote the elderly population to consume, we must improve the income level of the elderly population in order to better improve the quality of life of the elderly population in Liaoning Province; Secondly, it is necessary to appropriately relax the fertility policy, thereby improving the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Liaoning Province, and alleviating the pressure of contraction at the bottom of the population pyramid; third, to speed up the reform of the medical care system. Thus ensuring the quality of life of more elderly and disabled elderly people in their later years; finally, strengthening the service industry for the aged, the physical condition of the elderly population will continue to decline with the increase of age, and society and families should assume the responsibility of taking care of the elderly. Speed up the development of pension industry, so that the elderly life more comfortable and secure.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127
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