基于碳排放的重庆产业结构调整研究

发布时间：2018-08-02 14:22

【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖及能源危机的加剧，转变经济发展模式、调整产业结构、实现产业的低碳化转型已成为各国的共识。改革开放30余年，我国经济持续增长，产出水平不断提高，相应地，我国能源需求也不断增加，二氧化碳排放量逐年上升。面对巨大的减排压力，发展低碳经济是我国走可持续发展道路的必然选择。重庆是我国最大的中央直辖市，，也是具有重化工特征的老工业基地。作为五省八市低碳城市的国家试点之一，重庆以重工业为主的高污染、高能耗、高排放的粗放型经济模式亟待改变。此外，重庆还担负着实现低碳转型，为区域乃至全国积累经验的历史重任。如何转变经济发展模式、调整产业结构，是重庆实现可持续发展亟待解决的重大问题。本文从产业经济学视角出发，以重庆市为研究对象，在对相关理论及研究成果归纳整理的基础上，结合重庆市产业结构及碳排放现状，采用灰色关联分析法、投入产出法以及四象限分析法等，基于产业部门的碳排放影响力和经济影响力，提出重庆市产业结构调整的方向及政策建议。本文首先对重庆市三次产业与碳排放的关联关系进行实证分析。由于对该问题的研究属于对信息不完备的不确定性系统的研究。故本文运用灰色关联分析法进行测算。结果显示，重庆市三大产业中，第二产业对碳排放的影响最大，第三产业次之，第一产业对碳排放的影响最小。在此基础上，本文运用投入产出法，从碳排放和经济发展双重角度，对重庆市29个产业部门的调整路径进行了探析。依据各产业部门的碳排放影响力和经济影响力大小，利用四象限分析法，对产业部门进行分类，根据其所处的象限区域，确定了产业部门的结构调整策略，包括产业扶植、产业改造、产业控制和产业升级。最后,根据实证结果，本文进一步提出低碳背景下重庆产业结构调整的政策建议。该建议提出重庆应以重点发展部门和重点调控部门的结构调整为主线，以金融、财税、技术三大支持体系为支撑，实现重庆产业结构的低碳化转型。
[Abstract]:With the global warming and the aggravation of the energy crisis, it has become the consensus of all countries to change the economic development model, adjust the industrial structure and realize the low carbonization transformation of the industry. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the economy of our country has been increasing continuously, and the output level has been improving constantly. Accordingly, the energy demand of our country is also increasing, and the carbon dioxide emissions are rising year by year. Facing the huge pressure of emission reduction, developing low-carbon economy is the inevitable choice for our country to take the road of sustainable development. Chongqing is the largest municipality directly under the Central Government of China and an old industrial base with heavy chemical characteristics. As one of the national pilot projects of low-carbon cities in five provinces and eight cities, Chongqing's extensive economic model, which is characterized by heavy industry, high pollution, high energy consumption and high emission, needs to be changed urgently. In addition, Chongqing is also responsible for the realization of low-carbon transition, for regional and national accumulation of experience. How to change the mode of economic development and adjust the industrial structure is an important problem to be solved to realize sustainable development in Chongqing. In this paper, from the perspective of industrial economics, taking Chongqing as the research object, on the basis of summing up the relevant theories and research results, combining the industrial structure of Chongqing and the present situation of carbon emissions, the grey relational analysis method is adopted. The input-output method and the four-quadrant analysis method are used to put forward the direction and policy suggestions of industrial structure adjustment in Chongqing based on the influence of carbon emission and economic influence of industrial sector. In this paper, the relationship between three industries and carbon emissions in Chongqing is analyzed empirically. Because the study of this problem belongs to the uncertain system with incomplete information. Therefore, this paper uses grey relational analysis method to calculate. The results show that among the three major industries in Chongqing, the secondary industry has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, the tertiary industry has the second, and the primary industry has the least impact on carbon emissions. On this basis, the paper analyzes the adjustment paths of 29 industrial departments in Chongqing from the perspective of carbon emission and economic development by using the input-output method. According to the influence of carbon emission and economic influence of each industrial sector, the paper classifies the industrial sector by using the four-quadrant analysis method. According to the quadrant region, the structure adjustment strategy of the industrial sector is determined, including industry support. Industrial transformation, industrial control and industrial upgrading. Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper further puts forward the policy recommendations of industrial structure adjustment in Chongqing under the background of low carbon. This proposal puts forward that Chongqing should take the structural adjustment of key development departments and key regulatory departments as the main line, and support the three supporting systems of finance, taxation and technology to realize the low-carbon transformation of Chongqing's industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

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