基于最小二乘支持向量机的社会代价对经济增长影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-06 15:21
【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来，中国经济经历了30多年的高速增长，被国际社会称为“中国增长奇迹”，引起了广泛关注。与此同时，一些与快速经济增长冲突的不和谐社会现象也随之产生，如社会保障、劳动就业、收入差距，贪污腐化、治安恶化等，对经济增长产生了不利影响。本文将上述经济增长过程中并发的社会问题视为社会代价，以此描述经济增长产生的负面效应，并将其作为衡量经济增长质量的重要指标，以中国经济增长为背景，基于最小二乘支持向量机方法，从定量的角度测算社会代价对经济增长的影响。 首先，从社会代价视角探讨了贫富分化的表现及特点，形成的原因以及测量的方法和指标，在此基础上对贫富分化现象作出经济学分析。选择城乡居民恩格尔系数差值、基尼系数、城市居民可支配收入/农村居民纯收入指标来描述贫富分化程度，人均GDP及GDP不变价增长率指标描述经济增长状况。通过本文提出的最优参数支持向量回归方法，构造贫富分化对经济增长影响关系模型。实证结果表明：贫富分化初期，收入差距的增加产生激励作用，促进经济增长；贫富分化中期，激励作用与抑制作用并存；贫富分化发展到一定程度，激励作用让位于抑制作用；贫富分化的不稳定对经济有负向作用。 其次，从社会代价视角探讨了腐败的表现及特点，，对其形成的原因以及理论根源进行介绍，在此基础上对腐败现象作出经济学分析。选择腐败感知指数、贪污渎职人数/公职人员数、贪污渎职案件/公职人员数指标来描述腐败蔓延程度，人均GDP及GDP不变价增长率指标描述经济增长状况。通过最优参数支持向量回归方法，构造腐败蔓延对经济增长影响关系模型。实证结果表明：腐败蔓延对经济增长的抑制作用较为显著。政治腐败对经济增长的作用大于社会腐败整体水平；腐败蔓延对经济增长的负向作用具有非线性特征；腐败发展速度与经济增长速度早期呈负相关，且接近线性关系，但随着腐败的深入发展，其负效用开始呈现非线性特征，且边际递减。 再次，从社会代价视角探讨了犯罪的表现及特点，给出了犯罪的成因理论，探讨了犯罪对于经济增长的抑制或推动作用。选择人均公共安全支出、公安机关刑事案件立案数、每万人中犯罪嫌犯人数描述犯罪状况，人均GDP及GDP不变价增长率指标描述经济增长状况。通过本文提出的最优参数支持向量回归方法，构造犯罪增长对经济增长影响关系模型。实证结果表明：对中国当前经济社会状况而言，犯罪增长不利于经济增长。犯罪对经济增长的负作用表现出非线性特点；加大人均公共安全支出有利于削弱犯罪对经济增长的不良影响；犯罪状况起伏越大，对经济的影响越大，且具有乘数效应。 最后，综合测算贫富分化、腐败蔓延、犯罪增长三类因素对经济增长的共同作用。通过最优参数支持向量回归方法，构造社会代价对经济增长共同影响关系模型。认为贫富分化对经济增长具有阶段性特点，适度的放宽对贫富分化问题的约束，将有利于经济增长；腐败及犯罪则对经济具有明显的抑制作用，一旦放任腐败和犯罪继续发展，将产生更为严重的负面效果。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has experienced more than 30 years of rapid growth, which has been called "the miracle of China's growth" by the international community. At the same time, some unharmonious social phenomena which conflict with rapid economic growth have also come into being, such as social security, labor employment, income gap, corruption, public order, and so on. This paper considers the social problems associated with the economic growth process as a social price, and describes the negative effects of economic growth as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth, based on the economic growth of China and based on the least square support vector machine method, from the quantitative The angle estimates the impact of social costs on economic growth.
First, from the perspective of social cost, this paper discusses the manifestations and characteristics of the polarization of the rich and the poor, the causes of the formation and the methods and indicators of measurement. On this basis, we make an economic analysis of the phenomenon of the polarization between the rich and the poor. The difference between the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents, the Gini coefficient, the income of urban residents and the net income of rural residents are described to describe the rich and poor. The degree of economic growth is described by the per capita GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the increase of income gap in the early stage of the rich and poor differentiation, the stimulating effect of the income gap, the promotion of economic growth, the differentiation of the rich and the poor. In the medium term, the incentive and the inhibition coexist; the polarization of the rich and the poor developed to a certain extent, and the incentive effect was inhibited; the instability of the rich and the poor had a negative effect on the economy.
Secondly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of corruption from the perspective of social cost, introduces the causes of its formation and the theoretical root, and makes economic analysis on the corruption phenomenon based on this, and selects the Corruption Perception Index, the number of corruption malfeasance / public service, the corruption and malfeasance cases / the number of public officials to describe the spread of corruption. The economic growth condition is described by both GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method, the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is more significant. The effect of political corruption on economic growth is greater than the overall level of social corruption. The negative effect of corruption spread on economic growth has nonlinear characteristics; the speed of corruption development is negatively related to the speed of economic growth, and is close to linear relationship. But with the deepening of corruption, its negative effect begins to show nonlinear characteristics and the marginal decline.
Thirdly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of the crime from the perspective of social cost, gives the theory of the cause of the crime, and probes into the inhibition or promoting effect of crime on economic growth. It chooses public safety expenditure per capita, the number of criminal cases in public security organs, the number of criminal suspects in every 10000 people, and the rate of GDP and GDP per capita. The index describes the economic growth situation. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of the growth of crime to economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the growth of crime is not conducive to economic growth for the current economic and social conditions in China. Large per capita public safety expenditure can help to weaken the adverse effects of crime on economic growth; the greater the fluctuation of the crime situation, the greater the impact on the economy, and the multiplier effect.
Finally, a comprehensive measurement of the common effects of three factors, such as the polarization of the rich and the poor, the spread of corruption and the growth of the crime, on the economic growth by the optimal parameter support vector regression method, is used to construct the relationship model of the social cost to the economic growth. The author thinks that the differentiation of the rich and the poor has the stage characteristics of economic growth and the moderate relaxation of the problem of the polarization of the rich and the poor. It will be beneficial to economic growth; corruption and crime have an obvious inhibitory effect on the economy. Once corruption and crime continue to develop, more serious negative effects will be produced.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F224
本文编号：2168136
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has experienced more than 30 years of rapid growth, which has been called "the miracle of China's growth" by the international community. At the same time, some unharmonious social phenomena which conflict with rapid economic growth have also come into being, such as social security, labor employment, income gap, corruption, public order, and so on. This paper considers the social problems associated with the economic growth process as a social price, and describes the negative effects of economic growth as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth, based on the economic growth of China and based on the least square support vector machine method, from the quantitative The angle estimates the impact of social costs on economic growth.
First, from the perspective of social cost, this paper discusses the manifestations and characteristics of the polarization of the rich and the poor, the causes of the formation and the methods and indicators of measurement. On this basis, we make an economic analysis of the phenomenon of the polarization between the rich and the poor. The difference between the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents, the Gini coefficient, the income of urban residents and the net income of rural residents are described to describe the rich and poor. The degree of economic growth is described by the per capita GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the increase of income gap in the early stage of the rich and poor differentiation, the stimulating effect of the income gap, the promotion of economic growth, the differentiation of the rich and the poor. In the medium term, the incentive and the inhibition coexist; the polarization of the rich and the poor developed to a certain extent, and the incentive effect was inhibited; the instability of the rich and the poor had a negative effect on the economy.
Secondly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of corruption from the perspective of social cost, introduces the causes of its formation and the theoretical root, and makes economic analysis on the corruption phenomenon based on this, and selects the Corruption Perception Index, the number of corruption malfeasance / public service, the corruption and malfeasance cases / the number of public officials to describe the spread of corruption. The economic growth condition is described by both GDP and GDP non variable rate growth rate index. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method, the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the effect of corruption spread on economic growth is more significant. The effect of political corruption on economic growth is greater than the overall level of social corruption. The negative effect of corruption spread on economic growth has nonlinear characteristics; the speed of corruption development is negatively related to the speed of economic growth, and is close to linear relationship. But with the deepening of corruption, its negative effect begins to show nonlinear characteristics and the marginal decline.
Thirdly, it discusses the performance and characteristics of the crime from the perspective of social cost, gives the theory of the cause of the crime, and probes into the inhibition or promoting effect of crime on economic growth. It chooses public safety expenditure per capita, the number of criminal cases in public security organs, the number of criminal suspects in every 10000 people, and the rate of GDP and GDP per capita. The index describes the economic growth situation. Through the optimal parameter support vector regression method proposed in this paper, the relationship model of the growth of crime to economic growth is constructed. The empirical results show that the growth of crime is not conducive to economic growth for the current economic and social conditions in China. Large per capita public safety expenditure can help to weaken the adverse effects of crime on economic growth; the greater the fluctuation of the crime situation, the greater the impact on the economy, and the multiplier effect.
Finally, a comprehensive measurement of the common effects of three factors, such as the polarization of the rich and the poor, the spread of corruption and the growth of the crime, on the economic growth by the optimal parameter support vector regression method, is used to construct the relationship model of the social cost to the economic growth. The author thinks that the differentiation of the rich and the poor has the stage characteristics of economic growth and the moderate relaxation of the problem of the polarization of the rich and the poor. It will be beneficial to economic growth; corruption and crime have an obvious inhibitory effect on the economy. Once corruption and crime continue to develop, more serious negative effects will be produced.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F224
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