中国陆海经济协同仿真研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 08:55

【摘要】：随着我国沿海地区发展规划上升为国家战略，海洋经济越来越得到重视。然而陆域经济与海洋经济之间并非完全相互促进的关系，陆海之间在开发利用上也存在一定的矛盾，必须进行统筹兼顾才能实现陆海经济的平衡发展。因此，综合评量我国沿海地区陆域经济与海洋经济的协同发展程度，，从而提供合理的政策依据就变得非常必要。本文通过调研我国沿海地区陆海经济发展的现状和存在的问题，通过多种模型方法深入分析论证我国陆域经济与海洋经济的协同发展关系，并基于C3I系统的思想进行了计算机仿真模拟，最后提出我国沿海地区陆海统筹的总体思路。主要研究内容如下：第一，梳理了国内外对协同学理论和方法的发展应用情况以及陆海经济协同发展的研究情况，在此基础上阐明了陆海经济协同的几个重要概念和相关理论基础；第二，用线性回归、Granger检验、灰色关联度分析等方法初步论证了我国陆海经济之间的联动关系，并分析了沿海11个省市陆海经济发展现状并给出了相应的分类，同时分析了目前我国陆海经济存在的一些问题，以便下文可以针对性的展开研究；第三，在前文的基础上构建了我国沿海地区陆海经济有序度评价指标体系，选取了2002-2010年的数据对我国沿海地区陆域经济与海洋经济发展的有序度作了评价，分析了陆海经济有序度的变化规律；在获得有序度水平的前提下进一步构造了陆海协同发展模型，通过对序参数方程平衡解的分析论证陆海经济子系统之间存在的协同关系；此外，通过协同度模型计算得到了近8年我国沿海地区陆海经济发展的协同度，对陆海统筹规划提供了定量的参考；第四，基于C3I系统的思想对我国陆海经济协同作了仿真研究，模拟了C3I系统下我国陆海经济调度的过程；最后，基于对现状的描述与对模型的分析，我们从思想意识、改革体制、产业集群、基础保障、多层次新兴产业、生态文明等六个方面对我国沿海地区陆海统筹的发展战略提出了建议。
[Abstract]:With the development plan of coastal areas in China as a national strategy, marine economy has been paid more and more attention. However, the relationship between land economy and marine economy is not mutually promoting, and there are some contradictions in the development and utilization between land and sea, so it is necessary to carry out overall planning to realize the balanced development of land and sea economy. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the degree of coordinated development of land economy and marine economy in the coastal areas of China, so as to provide a reasonable policy basis. By investigating the present situation and existing problems of land and sea economy development in coastal areas of China, this paper analyzes and demonstrates the cooperative development relationship between land and marine economy through various model methods. Based on the idea of C3I system, the computer simulation is carried out, and the overall idea of land and sea coordination in coastal areas of China is put forward at last. The main research contents are as follows: first, the development and application of synergetic theory and method at home and abroad and the research situation of land and sea economy coordinated development are reviewed. On this basis, several important concepts and relevant theoretical bases of land and sea economic coordination are expounded. Secondly, the linkage relationship between land and sea economy in China is preliminarily demonstrated by means of linear regression Granger test and grey relational degree analysis. At the same time, the paper analyzes the current situation and classification of land and sea economy in 11 coastal provinces and cities, and analyzes some problems existing in China's land and sea economy at the same time, so that the following research can be carried out pertinently; third, Based on the above, the evaluation index system of land and sea economic order degree in coastal areas of China is constructed, and the order degree of land and marine economy development in coastal areas is evaluated by selecting the data from 2002 to 2010. Based on the analysis of the law of the order degree of the land and sea economy, the cooperative development model of the land and sea is further constructed on the premise of obtaining the order degree, and the cooperative relationship between the land and sea economic subsystems is proved by the analysis of the equilibrium solution of the sequence parameter equation. In addition, the synergetic degree of land and sea economic development in coastal areas of China in the past 8 years is calculated by using the coordination degree model, which provides a quantitative reference for the overall planning of land and sea. Based on the idea of C3I system, this paper simulates the process of land and sea economic scheduling under C3i system. Finally, based on the description of current situation and the analysis of the model, we study the process of land and sea economic coordination in China. Six aspects, such as reforming system, industrial cluster, basic guarantee, multi-level emerging industry and ecological civilization, are put forward for the development strategy of land and sea planning in coastal areas of China.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;P74;TP391.9

【相似文献】