经济走势、政策调控及其对企业竞争力的影响——基于中国行业面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-13 20:22

【摘要】："稳增长、调结构、促改革"是当前和今后相当长一段时期内中国政府调控经济的宏观政策取向,这为中国经济的平衡协调可持续发展提供了有利的政策环境,也是企业提高其自身核心竞争力的有力保障。本文着力于探讨经济增长走势和政府政策取向同企业竞争力的相关性和内在关系,从经济走势与政策应对的历史轨迹中追溯稳增长政策的政策思路渊源,分析政策调控对微观经济主体的直接或间接影响,并通过构建1998—2012年期间中国39个工业行业的面板数据模型,实证检验分析了经济增长态势及政府所实施的应对政策对企业竞争力的影响。分析结果表明:稳定的经济增长态势可以为企业提供较为有利的经营环境,减少企业对于未来不利冲击的风险成本,提高企业的经营绩效。偏紧性的财政政策和稳健的货币政策有利于减少企业对政府政策的依赖,抑制产能过剩现象,促使企业更加耐心地实施有利于提高自身核心竞争力的投资规划。对于竞争性产业,市场化程度越高对企业的发展越有利,市场的优胜劣汰和资源的有效配置可以引导企业进入良性循环的发展轨道。研究也发现,高技术产业的技术溢出并不明显,这表明在当前的结构调整中应当更加重视产业整体的技术升级和创新,全面提高产业素质,而不能过分企望于不同产业间比例的调整。
[Abstract]:"steady growth, adjusting the structure and promoting reform" is the macroeconomic policy orientation of the Chinese government to regulate and control the economy at present and for quite a long time to come, which provides a favorable policy environment for the balanced, coordinated and sustainable development of the Chinese economy. It is also an effective guarantee for enterprises to improve their own core competitiveness. This paper focuses on the relationship between the trend of economic growth and the orientation of government policy and the competitiveness of enterprises, and traces the origin of policy ideas of stable growth policy from the historical track of economic trend and policy response. This paper analyzes the direct or indirect influence of policy regulation on microeconomic entities, and builds the panel data model of 39 industrial industries in China from 1998 to 2012. Empirical analysis of the economic growth situation and the government's implementation of the response to the impact on the competitiveness of enterprises. The results show that stable economic growth can provide a favorable operating environment for enterprises, reduce the risk cost of adverse impacts on the future, and improve the performance of enterprises. Tight fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy can reduce the dependence of enterprises on government policies, restrain the phenomenon of overcapacity, and urge enterprises to implement more patiently investment plans that are conducive to improving their core competitiveness. For competitive industries, the higher the degree of marketization is, the more favorable it is to the development of enterprises. The survival of the fittest in the market and the effective allocation of resources can guide the enterprises into a virtuous cycle of development. The research also found that the technology spillover of high-tech industry is not obvious, which indicates that in the current structural adjustment, more attention should be paid to the technological upgrading and innovation of the industry as a whole, and the overall quality of the industry should be improved. We should not expect the adjustment of the proportion of different industries.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;中国社会科学院研究生院;
【基金】：国家软科学研究计划重大项目“制造业典型产业国际比较研究”(批准号2013GXS3B059)
【分类号】：F124;F271;F123.16

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