广东省区域碳预算方案研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 14:52

【摘要】：我国政府在哥本哈根会议上作出争取到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年有显著下降，“十二五”期间单位GDP的碳排放应比2005年下降25%-30%的承诺，为了完成这项任务，对于各个省份的减排节能都有了新的要求。广东省是我国的经济强省，同时也是能源消耗和碳排放的大省，为了完成广东省“十二五”规划所制定的任务，实现到2015年单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降35%左右，到2020年全省单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降45%以上的任务，迫切需要对全省各区域的碳排放量现状进行总结，并在此基础上，建立全省范围内的区域碳预算方案。本文主要采用经济计量分析、情景分析等实证研究方法，计算了广东省及各区域的碳排放量，，总结出广东省碳排放量分配的原则，并且探讨了符合实际的碳预算方案，本文所得出的主要结论有：第一，运用净碳排放量的计算公式，综合考虑能源消费、水泥生产和森林碳汇等多方面影响因素，得到从2000年至2010年十一年间广东省及四个主要区域的净碳排放量，并分析了各区域碳排放的特征。第二，通过对比归纳国内外相关经验，总结出碳预算方案制定的主要原则有人均公平、历史责任、支付能力和可持续发展等几方面，并将这些原则运用到制定广东省碳预算方案中。第三，运用情景分析方法预测能源消费碳排放量，运用城市化预测模型预测水泥生产碳排放量，运用FIX模型预测森林碳汇，最终得到2010年至2030年未来二十年间广东省的净碳排放量预测值。第四，根据人均公平和历史责任原则分配广东省各区域的碳预算初始配额，再利用转移支付和碳排放交易市场的方式对碳预算进行再分配，最终实现广东省各区域之间碳预算的平衡，并且对碳预算方案的可行性进行探讨。
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen Conference, our government made a commitment that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 2020 will be significantly lower than in 2005, and that carbon emissions per unit of GDP should be reduced by 25% to 30% in the twelfth five-year plan period, in order to accomplish this task. There are new requirements for reducing emissions and saving energy in various provinces. Guangdong Province is a strong economic province in China, as well as a major province of energy consumption and carbon emissions. In order to fulfill the tasks laid down in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Guangdong Province, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be about 35% lower by 2015 than in 2005. By 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP in the whole province is more than 45% lower than that in 2005. It is urgent to sum up the current situation of carbon emissions in all regions of the province, and on this basis, to establish a regional carbon budget plan for the whole province. In this paper, econometric analysis, scenario analysis and other empirical research methods are used to calculate the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and its regions, summarize the principles of carbon emissions distribution in Guangdong Province, and discuss the actual carbon budget scheme. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, using the calculation formula of net carbon emissions, considering the energy consumption, cement production and forest carbon sinks and other factors, The net carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and four major regions from 2000 to 2010 were obtained, and the characteristics of carbon emissions in each region were analyzed. Secondly, by comparing and summarizing the relevant experiences at home and abroad, we conclude that the main principles of carbon budget formulation are per capita equity, historical responsibility, ability to pay and sustainable development. And apply these principles to the formulation of Guangdong Province carbon budget plan. Thirdly, using scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions from energy consumption, using urbanization forecasting model to predict carbon emissions from cement production, and using FIX model to predict forest carbon sinks. The net carbon emissions forecast for Guangdong Province for the next 20 years from 2010 to 2030 was finally obtained. Fourthly, according to the principle of per capita equity and historical responsibility, the initial carbon budget quota should be allocated in various regions of Guangdong Province, and the carbon budget should be reallocated by means of transfer payments and carbon emissions trading market. Finally, the balance of carbon budget among different regions in Guangdong Province is realized, and the feasibility of carbon budget plan is discussed.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

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