现代化视角下长三角地区转型发展研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 06:24

【摘要】：进入21世纪后,长三角地区以其经济迅猛发展和区域一体化趋势,成为世界瞩目的焦点。但与此同时,一些新问题和新矛盾开始凸显：2004年,长三角地区出现较大范围的“用工荒”；2007年,无锡发生大面积蓝藻事件；2008年,受金融危机影响,外资对长三角地区的投资热情开始降温,长三角地区部分企业经营出现困难……。随着支撑长三角经济发展要素条件的变化,传统的不平衡、不协调、不可持续的粗放型增长模式已走到尽头,转型升级势在必行。在未来的20-30年时间内,长三角地区能否顺利完成转型,华丽转身,关系到长三角区域现代化目标的实现,以及具有国际竞争力的世界级城市群的建成。从历史的发展角度来看,任何社会的发展都不是直线式的,转型可以说是社会发展进程中转折跃升的“惊险一跳”。工业革命以前的历史,经济社会发展速度相对缓慢,这种“惊险一跳”表现并不明显。然而工业革命开启了人类现代化进程,使经济社会发展的速度大大加快,由此带来的阶段性跃升和转变也更加频繁和突出。因此,从现代化发展的历史深处出发,运用现代化相关理论以及社会变迁理论,可以为我国当前转型的科学定位和系统研究提供一种全新的视角。基于此,本文尝试通过分析世界现代化进程,从历史深处探源寻求转型发展的内在必然性,以期为我国当前的转型发展提供理论支持；然后在对我国当前转型科学解读的基础上,对长三角地区的转型发展进行理论探源与实证分析。全文主要研究结论如下： (1)转型是现代化的题中应有之义,是现代化诸因素矛盾与冲突的必然结果。现代化是整体性的社会变迁,它不仅仅是生产力的发展,还包括生产关系的调整。而且正是生产力与生产关系的矛盾运动,推动着现代化进程不断向高层次演进,转型即是生产力和生产关系的矛盾累积到一定程度的必然结果。因此,转型是现代化的题中应有之义,是生产力和生产关系不断适应并阶段性提升的结果。另一方面,虽然现代化是整体性的社会变革,但是在一定时期内却很难将各方面同步推进。现代化的各因素的不同步发展,必然会造成一定时期内经济、社会和环境等发展的不平衡、不和谐。这种不平衡、不和谐,正是深层次的生产力和生产关系矛盾的具有体现,它推动着现代化的演进,使得转型发展成为必然。转型正是现代化诸因素矛盾与冲突的必然结果。 (2)当前我国正面临着现代化进程中的第四次转型,这是一场全面、多元、复合转型。我国的现代化进程至今已有150多年的历史,期间共出现三次模式大转换,阶段性特征明显。当前我国正面临着现代化进程中的第四次转型。这次转型与前三次不同,不再是单一的经济体制或政治体制转变,而是一场全面、多元、复合转型,是适应全面现代化要求的“五位一体”转型,需要推进现代化在经济、社会、政治、文化、生态五个领域的协调发展。 (3)转型是长三角“时空共振”下的的必然选择,是“时空二维”与“内容五维”转型的统一。从时间演化角度分析,现代化发展的阶段性规律决定了长三角转型发展的必然性；从空间演变角度来看,区域空间结构演化规律决定了长三角空间结构优化和转型的必要性。因此,转型是长三角“时空共振”下的必然选择,它首先是“时空二维”转型的内在统一；其次在现代化内容上,又是相互关联的“五位一体”转型,是“时空二维”与“内容五维”转型的统一。 (4)当前长三角经济社会发展中存在众多结构性和素质性矛盾,是转型发展的现实基础。长三角的转型,不仅是理论上已经进入“转折点”,更是现实中各种矛盾与问题不断加剧的必然选择。本文研究认为,长三角地区转型的现实依据主要有五点：经济增长效率低下,难以维持经济持续高速增长；居民消费占比偏低,高投资和出口导向模式不可持续；经济社会发展不协调,引发各种社会矛盾和问题；要素成本不断上升,资源环境约束加大；城市群集聚效应不高,区域空间结构有待优化。 (5)近年塞长三角地区的转型发展总体趋势向好,但各领域的转型进展仍不够协调。本文依据现代化的发展诉求,建立转型发展评价指标体系,构建了静态的转型发展水平(TDL)和动态的转型发展指数(TDI)两个指标。指标体系包括五个一级指标和30个二级指标,运用层次分析法和熵值法对指标体系进行了组合赋权,并据此对长三角转型发展进行了纵向和横向的比较分析。横向的静态比较,计算了2000、2005、2011年三个时点上长三角及全国沿海部分省市的转型发展水平,结果显示,无论是作为区域整体的长三角地区,还是区域内部的江浙沪三省市,其转型发展水平一直位于全国前列,尤其在社会转型和生态转型等方面,效果显著,表现为我国沿海转型发展的前沿阵地。纵向的动态分析,计算了长三角及三省市的转型发展指数,结果显示,自2000年以来长三角地区转型发展呈现良好的变化趋势,但是各领域的转型并不完全协调和同步,三省市存在的主要问题也基本相同,主要是经济增长效益与经济结构优化进展较慢,滞后于整体转型的步伐； (6)长三角转型发展面临众多制约因素,同时又拥有良好的现实机遇。当前制约长三角转型的因素主要有：传统发展观念、制度的缺陷、发展战略的缺陷、较弱的自主创新能力以及行政区经济的阻碍等。在面临众多制约因素的同时,长三角也拥有良好的现实机遇,主要体现在：城市层面,上海“四个中心”建设带来的战略机遇；区域层面,多重倒逼机制有利于促进长三角转型；国家层面,加快推进长三角一体化进程有利于加快区域转型；国际层面,全球经济结构调整和第三次工业革命带来了发展的机遇。 (7)长三角转型发展内容繁多,需要进行整体设计,明确转型的重点和关键对策。长三角地区转型内容众多,纷繁复杂,而且相互交织、相互渗透,因此需要深刻理解各方面转型之间的相互关系,进行顶层设计,从整体的高度全面谋划长三角转型发展。这就需要从众多的转型内容中抓住转型的重点和方向,本文通过图解分析,寻找长三角转型的关键词和发展的重点,认为优化产业结构、保障社会公平、加强自主创新能力建设、深化体制机制改革、提升核心城市功能,发展平台经济、推进区域一体化等应该是长三角未来转型发展的重点所在。
[Abstract]:After entering the 21st century, the Yangtze River Delta region has become the focus of world attention with its rapid economic development and regional integration trend. But at the same time, some new problems and contradictions have begun to highlight: in 2004, the Yangtze River Delta region appeared a wider range of "labor shortage"; in 2007, a large area of cyanobacteria occurred in Wuxi; in 2008, by the financial crisis. As a result, the enthusiasm of foreign investment in the Yangtze River Delta region has begun to cool down, and some enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are facing difficulties in operation. Whether the Yangtze River Delta region can successfully complete the transformation and turn around magnificently is related to the realization of the modernization goal of the Yangtze River Delta region and the establishment of the world-class urban agglomeration with international competitiveness.
From the historical point of view, the development of any society is not linear, and the transformation can be said to be a "thrilling leap" in the process of social development. Processes have greatly accelerated the pace of economic and social development, resulting in more frequent and prominent stages of leaps and changes. Therefore, from the historical depths of modernization development, the use of modernization-related theories and social change theory can provide a new perspective for China's current transformation of the scientific positioning and system research. Based on this, this paper attempts to analyze the process of world modernization, explore the inherent inevitability of transformation and development from the depth of history, in order to provide theoretical support for China's current transformation and development; and then on the basis of scientific interpretation of China's current transformation, the Yangtze River Delta region's transformation and development of theoretical exploration and empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Transition is the inherent meaning of modernization and the inevitable result of contradictions and conflicts among the various factors of modernization. Modernization is a social change of the whole, which is not only the development of productive forces, but also the adjustment of production relations. Transition is the inevitable result of the accumulation of contradictions between productive forces and relations of production to a certain extent. Therefore, transformation is the inherent meaning of modernization and the result of continuous adaptation and gradual improvement of productive forces and relations of production. On the other hand, although modernization is a holistic social change, it is difficult to bring all aspects into play in a certain period of time. The asynchronous development of various factors of modernization will inevitably lead to the imbalance and disharmony of economic, social and environmental development in a certain period of time. This imbalance and disharmony is the embodiment of the contradiction between the deep-seated productive forces and production relations. It promotes the evolution of modernization and makes the transformation and development inevitable. It is the inevitable result of contradictions and conflicts in various factors of modernization.
(2) At present, China is facing the fourth transformation in the process of modernization, which is a comprehensive, pluralistic and compound transformation. The process of modernization in China has a history of more than 150 years, during which there have been three major transformation of modes with obvious characteristics of stages. At present, China is facing the fourth transformation in the process of modernization. Secondly, it is no longer a single economic system or political system transformation, but a comprehensive, pluralistic, compound transformation. It is a "five in one" transformation that meets the requirements of comprehensive modernization. It needs to promote the coordinated development of modernization in the five fields of economy, society, politics, culture and ecology.
(3) Transition is the inevitable choice under the "space-time resonance" of the Yangtze River Delta, and the unity of "space-time two-dimensional" and "content five-dimensional" transformation. Therefore, the transformation is the inevitable choice under the "space-time resonance" of the Yangtze River Delta. First, it is the internal unity of the "space-time two-dimensional" transformation; secondly, it is the "five-in-one" transformation related to each other in the content of modernization, and it is the unity of the "space-time two-dimensional" and "content five-dimensional" transformation.
(4) There are many structural and qualitative contradictions in the economic and social development of the Yangtze River Delta, which is the realistic foundation of the transformation and development. There should be five points: inefficient economic growth, it is difficult to maintain sustained and high-speed economic growth; low proportion of residents'consumption, high investment and unsustainable export-oriented model; inconsistent economic and social development, resulting in a variety of social contradictions and problems; rising factor costs, resource and environmental constraints; low urban agglomeration effect, regional agglomeration The spatial structure needs to be optimized.
(5) In recent years, the overall trend of transformation and development in the Seychelles-Yangtze River Delta region has been improving, but the progress of transformation in various fields is still not coordinated. According to the demand of modernization, this paper establishes an evaluation index system of transformation and development, and constructs two indicators: static level of transition development (TDL) and dynamic index of transition and development (TDI). The index system and 30 secondary indexes are combined and weighted by AHP and entropy method, and the longitudinal and horizontal comparative analysis of the transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta is carried out.
Horizontal static comparison is made to calculate the transformation and development levels of the Yangtze River Delta and some coastal provinces and cities in China at the three time points of 2000, 2005 and 2011. The results show that the transformation and development levels of the Yangtze River Delta and the three provinces and cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have always been in the forefront of the whole country, especially in social transformation and ecological transformation. Vertical dynamic analysis has calculated the transformation development index of the Yangtze River Delta and the three provinces and cities. The results show that the transformation development of the Yangtze River Delta region has shown a good trend since 2000, but the transformation of various fields is not completely coordinated and synchronized. The main problems are basically the same, mainly economic growth efficiency and economic structure optimization progress is slow, lagging behind the pace of overall transformation;
(6) The transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta are faced with many constraints and good opportunities. At present, the main factors restricting the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta are: traditional development concepts, institutional defects, development strategy defects, weak ability of independent innovation and Administrative economic obstacles. At the city level, the strategic opportunities brought about by the construction of the "four centers" in Shanghai; at the regional level, multiple inversion mechanisms are conducive to promoting the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta; at the national level, accelerating the integration process of the Yangtze River Delta is conducive to accelerating the regional transformation; at the international level, the restructuring of the global economy and The third industrial revolution has brought opportunities for development.
(7) The transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta has a great variety of contents, which need to be designed as a whole to clarify the key points and Countermeasures of the transformation. This requires us to grasp the focus and direction of the transformation from a large number of transformation contents. Through graphic analysis, this paper seeks the key words and development focus of the transformation of the Yangtze River Delta. It holds that optimizing the industrial structure, ensuring social equity, strengthening the construction of independent innovation capacity, deepening the reform of the system and mechanism, enhancing the function of the core cities, and developing the platform. Economy and promoting regional integration should be the focus of the future transformation and development of the Yangtze River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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