我国技术进步对能源效率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-26 15:09

【摘要】：改革开放30年以来我国发生了翻天覆地的变化，经济高速增长，能源效率大大提高，人民的生活水平得到了改善，但也应该认识到，当前我国能源效率处于世界平均水平以下，与世界发达国家相比差距较大。我国能源储备总量位于世界前列，但人均能源与世界发达国家相比差距较大，且远不及世界平均水平。出台不久的《能源发展“十二五”规划》中指出，“十二五”时期，当前国情世情继续发生着深刻变化，国际经济政治形势更加严峻、复杂，与此同时，我国能源发展呈现出了新的阶段性特点，我国面临着由能源大国转变为能源强国的历史机遇，同时也面临着许多挑战和问题。该规划也给出了2015年能源发展的目标：主要是能源消费总量和能源效率两方面，能源消费总量控制用电量6.15万亿千瓦时，标准煤40亿吨，能源效率控制炼油加工标准油消耗下降至63千克/吨，能源资源综合利用效率提高至38%，，火电供电标准煤消耗下降至323克/千瓦时。提高能源效率已是一国经济持续发展、保护生态环境、提高一国综合国力等的必然要求，因此，本文是基于以上的现实需要来探讨技术进步对能源效率的影响。然而以往分析使用的计量模型，要么利用变量的横截面数据，来分析地区与地区之间技术进步对能源效率静态的影响；要么利用变量的时间序列数据，来分析随着时间的推移技术进步水平对我国能源效率动态的影响；即使同时利用变量的横截面和时间序列数据，分析我国技术进步对能源效率的影响，然而他们都忽略了能源效率具有空间效应这一事实，即能源效率具有空间依赖性和空间差异性。实际上，技术进步对能源效率的影响是在空间和时间两个尺度上耦合进行的，仅利用横截面或时间序列数据可能无法准确分析技术进步对能源效率影响，更难深刻而深入地研究技术进步对能源效率影响的演变机制及动态发展过程。因此，在探讨我国技术进步对能源效率的影响时应当考虑能源效率的空间效应。本文采用我国大陆30个省市自治区的面板数据，首先进行能源效率的空间自相关性检验，实证检验表明我国能源效率存在着显著性的空间依赖性和空间差异性，我国能源效率具有空间效应。然后在进一步运用固定效应空间面板模型探讨技术进步对能源效率的影响，实证分析表明地区研究与试验发展投入、人力资本、专利授权数对提高我国区域能源效率有积极的促进作用，外商直接投资在提高我国能源效率方面并没有发挥作用。我国能源效率在地理位置上呈现出来的区域分布的区域特征要强于能源效率时间性或阶段性特征，影响我国能源效率空间分布格局的最主要因素是我国能源效率在各省市自治区的地区性差异。最后，根据实证模型的结论提出我国应加大科技投入，充分发挥能源效率空间溢出效应的作用，使得我国区域能源效率趋向一致。
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening up, China has undergone earth-shaking changes. Its economy has grown at a high speed, its energy efficiency has been greatly improved, and its people's living standards have been improved. However, it should also be recognized that the current energy efficiency of our country is below the world average. Compared with the developed countries in the world, the gap is large. China's total energy reserves are among the highest in the world, but the per capita energy is far from that of the developed countries and is far below the world average. The "12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development" shortly introduced pointed out that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, profound changes continue to take place in the current state of the world, and the international economic and political situation is more severe and complex, while at the same time, The development of energy in China presents new stage characteristics. Our country is faced with the historical opportunity from a big energy country to a powerful energy country, as well as a lot of challenges and problems. The plan also sets out the goals for energy development in 2015: the total energy consumption and energy efficiency will be controlled at 6.15 trillion kilowatt-hours and 4 billion tons of standard coal. Energy efficiency control standard oil consumption of refining and processing decreased to 63 kg / ton, comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy and resources increased to 38 and standard coal consumption of thermal power supply decreased to 323 g / kWh. Improving energy efficiency is the inevitable requirement of a country's sustained economic development, protection of ecological environment and improvement of a country's comprehensive national strength. Therefore, this paper discusses the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency based on the above practical needs. However, the econometric models used in the previous analysis either use cross-sectional data of variables to analyze the static impact of technological advances between regions on energy efficiency, or use time series data of variables. To analyze the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency over time, even though the cross-section of variables and time series data are used to analyze the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency. However, they all ignore the fact that energy efficiency has spatial effect, that is, energy efficiency has spatial dependence and spatial difference. In fact, the impact of technological advances on energy efficiency is coupled on both spatial and temporal scales, and the use of cross-section or time series data alone may not accurately analyse the impact of technological advances on energy efficiency. It is more difficult to deeply and deeply study the evolution mechanism and dynamic development process of the influence of technological progress on energy efficiency. Therefore, the spatial effect of energy efficiency should be considered when discussing the influence of technological progress on energy efficiency in China. In this paper, the panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in mainland China are used to test the spatial autocorrelation of energy efficiency. The empirical results show that there is significant spatial dependence and spatial difference in energy efficiency in China. China's energy efficiency has a spatial effect. Then using the fixed-effect spatial panel model to explore the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency, empirical analysis shows that regional research and experimental development investment, human capital, Patent licensing has a positive effect on improving regional energy efficiency in China, but foreign direct investment does not play a role in improving energy efficiency in China. The regional characteristics of regional distribution of energy efficiency in China are stronger than the temporal or periodic characteristics of energy efficiency. The main factor affecting the spatial distribution pattern of energy efficiency in China is the regional difference of energy efficiency among provinces, cities and autonomous regions. Finally, according to the conclusion of the empirical model, we should increase the investment of science and technology, give full play to the spatial spillover effect of energy efficiency, and make the regional energy efficiency of our country tend to be consistent.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.3;F206

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