优化政府支出结构，拉动内需增长
发布时间：2018-08-27 06:22
【摘要】：2008年次贷危机以来世界经济形势持续动荡，不仅使美国本土经济遭受严重打击，也使世界上其他地区的经济陷入泥潭，也使中国经济受到巨大的影响。根据国民收入决定理论公式Y(GDP)=C+I+G+NX国内生产总值主要由消费、投资、政府支出以及进出口净值四大部分组成，受目前世界经济危机的影响，我国的出口贸易总额剧烈下滑，导致进出口净额(NX)大幅缩小，而目前我国的投资(I)跟政府支出(G)均处在相当高位的水平，继续增加有可能会引发一系列的经济问题。在这样的背景下，如何启动国内持续低迷的消费水平，以内需代替外需来拉动中国经济增长已经成为眼下迫切需要解决的问题。 在中国经济的历史上消费也曾经是经济发展的重要推动力，比如在1992年的时候消费对GDP增长的贡献率甚至达到了72.5%的高水平，但是自1993年开始消费对GDP增长的贡献率开始出现剧烈的波动，至2010年的时候消费对GDP增长的贡献率已不足40%。之所以会出现这样的情况我认为跟政府在这一时期选择的财政政策有一定的关系，在1993年以前中国实行的一直是力求保持财政、信贷和物资三大平衡的财政政策，93年以后政府才开始重视财政政策调控国家宏观经济的作用。特别是在98年亚洲金融危机以后政府开始首次实行积极财政政策，，但是也是从这一时期开始居民的消费水平开始一路下滑。 基于98年积极财政政策实施以来中国消费持续走低的现象，本文将重点研究财政支出结构对居民消费的影响。财政政策作为国家调控经济的一种手段，其对消费的影响反映在很多方面，但直接的影响却并不明显。而收入作为影响居民消费水平的首要因素，却会受到税收、政府转移支付、教育支出、社会保障支出等财政支出各部分的直接影响。因此本文将重点从收入入手来分析财政支出结构对居民消费的影响程度。另外考虑到自98年以来中国物价持续走高，物价的不稳定成为限制居民消费的一个潜在重要因素，因此本文在以收入为主要研究方向上还将简单探讨财政支出结构各部分变动对物价的影响。 文章通过对1978年-2010年我国财政支出的各项数据以及收入水平和物价的变动程度进行实证分析得出目前在我国的财政支出各部分中增加教育支出与社会保障支出对提高居民收入的效果最为显著，且对提高农村居民的收入水平的效果要优于城镇地区，而基本建设支出对居民收入的影响则不太明显，行政管理支出的影响则为负，增加支农支出对提高农村居民收入具有显著作用。这些结论为我国下一步财政支出结构的调整向民生方面倾斜提供了理论基础。
[Abstract]:The continued turmoil in the world economy since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has not only severely hit the local economy of the United States, but also plunged the economy of other parts of the world into a quagmire, which has also greatly affected the economy of China. According to the theoretical formula for determining national income, Y (GDP) C I G NX gross domestic product is mainly composed of four major parts: consumption, investment, government expenditure and net import and export. Under the influence of the current world economic crisis, the total export trade of our country has dropped sharply. As a result, net (NX) of import and export shrinks sharply, and the investment (I) and government expenditure (G) are both at a high level in our country at present, and further increase may lead to a series of economic problems. In this context, how to start the domestic consumption level, domestic demand instead of external demand to stimulate China's economic growth has become an urgent need to solve the problem. In the history of China's economy, consumption has also been an important driving force for economic development. For example, in 1992, consumption contributed to GDP growth at a high level of 72.5%. But the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth began to fluctuate sharply since 1993, and the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was less than 40% in 2010. The reason for this situation is that I think it has something to do with the fiscal policy chosen by the government during this period. Before 1993, China had been striving to maintain its finances. After 93 years, the government began to attach importance to the role of fiscal policy in regulating the state's macro economy. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the government began to implement active fiscal policy for the first time, but from this period, the consumption level of residents began to decline. Based on the phenomenon that China's consumption has been declining since the implementation of the active fiscal policy in 1998, this paper will focus on the study of the influence of the structure of fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption. Fiscal policy, as a means of adjusting and controlling economy, reflects on consumption in many aspects, but the direct influence is not obvious. However, income, as the primary factor affecting the consumption level of residents, will be directly affected by tax revenue, government transfer payment, education expenditure, social security expenditure and so on. Therefore, this paper will focus on income to analyze the impact of financial expenditure structure on the consumption of residents. Considering also that prices in China have continued to rise since 1998 and that price instability has become a potentially important factor limiting the consumption of residents, Therefore, this paper will also briefly discuss the influence of the changes of fiscal expenditure structure on prices in the income as the main research direction. Through the empirical analysis of the data of fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2010 and the change of income level and price in China, this paper draws a conclusion that education expenditure and social security expenditure are increased in all parts of fiscal expenditure in our country at present. The effect of raising residents' income is the most remarkable. Moreover, the effect of improving the income level of rural residents is better than that of urban areas, while the effect of capital construction expenditure on residents' income is not obvious, and the effect of administrative expenditure is negative. Increasing the expenditure on supporting agriculture has a significant effect on raising the income of rural residents. These conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure to people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.45;F126.1
本文编号：2206395
[Abstract]:The continued turmoil in the world economy since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has not only severely hit the local economy of the United States, but also plunged the economy of other parts of the world into a quagmire, which has also greatly affected the economy of China. According to the theoretical formula for determining national income, Y (GDP) C I G NX gross domestic product is mainly composed of four major parts: consumption, investment, government expenditure and net import and export. Under the influence of the current world economic crisis, the total export trade of our country has dropped sharply. As a result, net (NX) of import and export shrinks sharply, and the investment (I) and government expenditure (G) are both at a high level in our country at present, and further increase may lead to a series of economic problems. In this context, how to start the domestic consumption level, domestic demand instead of external demand to stimulate China's economic growth has become an urgent need to solve the problem. In the history of China's economy, consumption has also been an important driving force for economic development. For example, in 1992, consumption contributed to GDP growth at a high level of 72.5%. But the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth began to fluctuate sharply since 1993, and the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was less than 40% in 2010. The reason for this situation is that I think it has something to do with the fiscal policy chosen by the government during this period. Before 1993, China had been striving to maintain its finances. After 93 years, the government began to attach importance to the role of fiscal policy in regulating the state's macro economy. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the government began to implement active fiscal policy for the first time, but from this period, the consumption level of residents began to decline. Based on the phenomenon that China's consumption has been declining since the implementation of the active fiscal policy in 1998, this paper will focus on the study of the influence of the structure of fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption. Fiscal policy, as a means of adjusting and controlling economy, reflects on consumption in many aspects, but the direct influence is not obvious. However, income, as the primary factor affecting the consumption level of residents, will be directly affected by tax revenue, government transfer payment, education expenditure, social security expenditure and so on. Therefore, this paper will focus on income to analyze the impact of financial expenditure structure on the consumption of residents. Considering also that prices in China have continued to rise since 1998 and that price instability has become a potentially important factor limiting the consumption of residents, Therefore, this paper will also briefly discuss the influence of the changes of fiscal expenditure structure on prices in the income as the main research direction. Through the empirical analysis of the data of fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2010 and the change of income level and price in China, this paper draws a conclusion that education expenditure and social security expenditure are increased in all parts of fiscal expenditure in our country at present. The effect of raising residents' income is the most remarkable. Moreover, the effect of improving the income level of rural residents is better than that of urban areas, while the effect of capital construction expenditure on residents' income is not obvious, and the effect of administrative expenditure is negative. Increasing the expenditure on supporting agriculture has a significant effect on raising the income of rural residents. These conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure to people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.45;F126.1
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