四川省劳动力成本变动情况及经济效应分析
发布时间：2018-08-30 17:17
【摘要】：近年来,社会各界对劳动力成本的变动情况都十分关注,国家统计局发布2012年统计公报指出,中国劳动力人口绝对数量的首次下降,劳动力成本再次成为关注的热点问题。当前劳动力成本普遍上涨已成定势,对居民个人、企业乃至整个社会经济产生了重要的影响。 四川是农业大省,劳动力资源丰富,但近年来随着经济的快速发展和刘易斯拐点的到来,我省劳动力成本的快速上涨使得经济面临复杂境地。一方面,劳动力成本的上涨使得企业面临产业结构调整、增强自主创新能力的压力；另一方面,劳动力成本上升有利于扩大内需,促进地区经济增长。在这种背景下,对我省劳动力成本变动情况及其经济效应的研究就具有重要的现实意义。 本文首先对文中相关的重点概念进行界定和梳理,总结出我国劳动力成本上涨的相关理论研究,综合阐述国内外的研究成果,在此基础上根据四川省劳动力成本变动的相关数据,对劳动力成本变动的现状进行了概况。以职工工资衡量的劳动力成本基数大、增长快。我省在岗职工平均工资从1992年到2011年增长15.43倍,年均名义增速达到15.49%,特别是近两年来,政府上调最低工资标准和企业加薪两项措施后,劳动力成本较大幅度上升。从增长率来看,总体上保持着较高的增长速度,平均每年的增长率可达到15%。以社会保险为代表的劳动力间接成本不断向上攀升,随着城镇社会保障制度的逐步建立,社会保险待遇水平得到进一步提高。2011年全省社会保险基金征缴五项总额已达到1177.9亿元,与2007年增长2.7倍。另一方面,我省城乡间收入与支出差异较大,不同地区、行业和性质的企业间劳动力成本差异大。 接下来,对劳动力成本上升的原因进行了系统、全面详细的阐述,供求关系变化、生活成本、政府政策和法规、劳动者素质和劳动生产率共同作用于劳动力成本,致使我省劳动力成本不断上涨。 然后结合本文的研究实际,选取四川省人均GDP、城镇职工平均工资、工业企业利润总额、城镇居民消费等影响劳动力成本上涨的效应指标,运用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证检验了劳动力成本上涨对居民、微观企业、地区经济发展乃至整个国民经济运行状况的影响,通过Granger因果检验和脉冲响应函数研究了职工工资与居民消费、物价指数、经济增长的长期动态均衡关系。最后在相关理论及模型分析的基础上,联系实际情况,给出未来劳动力成本的变化趋势,并对劳动力成本变化给出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, people from all walks of life have paid close attention to the change of labor cost. The National Bureau of Statistics released a statistics bulletin in 2012 that the absolute number of Chinese labor force has declined for the first time, and labor cost has once again become a hot issue. At present, the general rise in labor costs has become a fixed trend, which has had an important impact on individual residents, enterprises and even the whole society and economy. Sichuan is a big agricultural province with abundant labor resources, but with the rapid development of economy and the arrival of Lewis inflection point in recent years, the rapid rise of labor costs in Sichuan Province makes the economy face a complex situation. On the one hand, the rise of labor cost makes enterprises face the pressure of industrial structure adjustment and strengthen the ability of independent innovation; on the other hand, the rise of labor cost is conducive to expand domestic demand and promote regional economic growth. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the change of labor cost and its economic effect in our province. This paper firstly defines and combs the relevant key concepts in this paper, summarizes the relevant theoretical research on the rise of labor costs in China, and comprehensively expounds the research results at home and abroad. Based on the data of labor cost change in Sichuan province, the current situation of labor cost change is summarized. The base of labor cost measured by worker's salary is big, growth is fast. The average wage of employed workers in our province increased 15.43 times from 1992 to 2011, and the annual nominal growth rate reached 15.49. especially in the past two years, after the government raised the minimum wage standard and the enterprise pay increase, the labor cost increased by a large margin. From the growth rate, overall maintain a high growth rate, the average annual growth rate can reach 15. The indirect cost of labor, represented by social insurance, has been rising continuously. With the gradual establishment of the urban social security system, the level of social insurance benefits has been further improved. In 2011, the total collection of five items of social insurance funds in the whole province has reached 117.79 billion yuan. That was 2.7 times higher than in 2007. On the other hand, there is a great difference between rural income and expenditure, and the labor cost varies greatly among different regions, industries and enterprises. Then, the reasons for the rise of labor costs are systematically explained in detail, including the changes of supply and demand, the cost of living, the government policies and regulations, the quality of workers and the productivity of labor. As a result of our province's labor costs continue to rise. Then combined with the actual research in this paper, we select the average wages of urban workers per capita in Sichuan Province, the total profits of industrial enterprises, the consumption of urban residents, and so on, which affect the increase of labor costs. Using the vector autoregressive model (VAR), the paper empirically tests the effect of labor cost rise on residents, micro enterprises, regional economic development and even the whole national economy. By means of Granger causality test and impulse response function, the long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between employee wage and resident consumption, price index and economic growth is studied. Finally, on the basis of the analysis of relevant theories and models, combined with the actual situation, the change trend of labor cost in the future is given, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the change of labor cost are given.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.27;F127;F224
本文编号：2213741
[Abstract]:In recent years, people from all walks of life have paid close attention to the change of labor cost. The National Bureau of Statistics released a statistics bulletin in 2012 that the absolute number of Chinese labor force has declined for the first time, and labor cost has once again become a hot issue. At present, the general rise in labor costs has become a fixed trend, which has had an important impact on individual residents, enterprises and even the whole society and economy. Sichuan is a big agricultural province with abundant labor resources, but with the rapid development of economy and the arrival of Lewis inflection point in recent years, the rapid rise of labor costs in Sichuan Province makes the economy face a complex situation. On the one hand, the rise of labor cost makes enterprises face the pressure of industrial structure adjustment and strengthen the ability of independent innovation; on the other hand, the rise of labor cost is conducive to expand domestic demand and promote regional economic growth. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the change of labor cost and its economic effect in our province. This paper firstly defines and combs the relevant key concepts in this paper, summarizes the relevant theoretical research on the rise of labor costs in China, and comprehensively expounds the research results at home and abroad. Based on the data of labor cost change in Sichuan province, the current situation of labor cost change is summarized. The base of labor cost measured by worker's salary is big, growth is fast. The average wage of employed workers in our province increased 15.43 times from 1992 to 2011, and the annual nominal growth rate reached 15.49. especially in the past two years, after the government raised the minimum wage standard and the enterprise pay increase, the labor cost increased by a large margin. From the growth rate, overall maintain a high growth rate, the average annual growth rate can reach 15. The indirect cost of labor, represented by social insurance, has been rising continuously. With the gradual establishment of the urban social security system, the level of social insurance benefits has been further improved. In 2011, the total collection of five items of social insurance funds in the whole province has reached 117.79 billion yuan. That was 2.7 times higher than in 2007. On the other hand, there is a great difference between rural income and expenditure, and the labor cost varies greatly among different regions, industries and enterprises. Then, the reasons for the rise of labor costs are systematically explained in detail, including the changes of supply and demand, the cost of living, the government policies and regulations, the quality of workers and the productivity of labor. As a result of our province's labor costs continue to rise. Then combined with the actual research in this paper, we select the average wages of urban workers per capita in Sichuan Province, the total profits of industrial enterprises, the consumption of urban residents, and so on, which affect the increase of labor costs. Using the vector autoregressive model (VAR), the paper empirically tests the effect of labor cost rise on residents, micro enterprises, regional economic development and even the whole national economy. By means of Granger causality test and impulse response function, the long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between employee wage and resident consumption, price index and economic growth is studied. Finally, on the basis of the analysis of relevant theories and models, combined with the actual situation, the change trend of labor cost in the future is given, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the change of labor cost are given.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.27;F127;F224
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