济南市产业结构与土地利用结构关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 15:34

【摘要】：随着经济的不断发展，经济总量的增长不仅仅是通过经济发展来体现了，更多地是通过产业结构的变化来体现，现代经济增长的本质特征是产业结构的全面转变。然而，任何产业都必须落实在一定的空间上，产业结构落实在空间上，在一定意义上就是土地利用结构，两者实际上是一个问题的两个方面。因此，在产业发展和土地供给矛盾日益尖锐的情况下，将产业结构和土地利用结构有机结合起来，探讨产业结构与土地利用结构之间的演变特点和内在联系，有助于实现土地资源在各产业部门间的优化配置，对于缓解两者之间的矛盾具有重要意义。以济南市2000-2011年土地利用变更调查数据和《济南市统计摘要》中的三次产业数据为基础，首先分别分析了济南市各县（市）区的产业结构和土地利用结构的现状及特征。其次从产业结构与土地利用结构的时空变化分析入手，采用信息熵模型进行分析。最后定性分析了产业结构与土地利用结构的关系，又运用计量经济学中的多元线性回归和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法定量分析了济南市产业结构与土地利用结构之间的互动关系。在以上研究的基础上运用灰色关联度法分析了济南市各产业内部的特征，重点分析了济南市工业内部各行业的特征，得出济南市产业转移对济南市土地利用结构的影响。主要结论如下：济南市产业结构从2000年到2011年一直是“三、二、一”的形式，第一产业所占的比重呈现下降的趋势，第二产业所占的比重保持平稳状态，，第三产业所占的比重是升高的，济南市各县（市）区的产业结构呈现出区域差异性,中心区（历下区、市中区、槐荫区、天桥区）是以第三产业为主，郊区（历城区、长清区、平阴县、商河县、济阳县、章丘市）是以第二产业为主。通过计算得出，济南市产业结构的信息熵逐年降低，说明济南市的产业结构正在发生有序的变化，第三产业优势明显，产业结构集中度增强。济南市从2000年到2011年变化最快的土地利用类型是其它土地，其次是建设用地，最后是农用地。各县（市）区的土地利用类型变化程度也呈现出相同的特征，中心区和郊区变化最快的土地利用类型都是其它土地。进一步分析了农用地内部各类用地中，耕地的变化速度最慢，草地的变化速度最快。建设用地中城镇村及工矿用地变化速度最快，水域及水利设施用地变化速度最慢。根据洛伦茨曲线计算得出各种土地利用类型在济南市各县（市）区的分布是不均匀的，通过信息熵模型得出济南市土地利用结构的有序度是降低的，各类土地利用类型之间的面积差异也在逐渐缩小。通过结构变化率分析得出济南市产业结构变化率较慢，土地利用结构变化率较快，说明济南市的产业结构的变化速度慢于土地利用结构的变化速度，所以济南市产业结构的调整具有滞后性。利用格兰杰因果关系检验得出：根据不同的滞后期，所得出的检验结果也不同。济南市产业结构与土地利用结构进行回归分析，第一产业与土地利用结构相关性最强，其次是第三产业。最后提出济南市产业结构与土地利用结构要互动协调发展，首先分析了济南市各产业内部的灰色关联度，得出第一产业与农业关联度最高，第二产业与工业关联度最高，第三产业与其他社会服务业关联度最高。根据关联度得出济南各产业内部要进一步调整，第一产业中要坚持以农业为主，畜牧业为辅。第二产业要加快工业化进程，从而带动建筑业和第三产业的发展。第三产业要重点发展金融保险业、房地产业等现代服务业。根据以上关联度的分析得出济南市产业转移对土地利用结构的影响，得出产业结构调整提高土地资源配置效率和产业结构调整提高城市土地资源的产出效率。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of economy, the growth of total economic output is not only reflected by economic development, but also by the change of industrial structure. The essential feature of modern economic growth is the overall transformation of industrial structure. In a sense, land use structure is actually two aspects of a problem. Therefore, under the increasingly acute contradiction between industrial development and land supply, it is helpful to combine industrial structure and land use structure organically and explore the evolution characteristics and internal relations between industrial structure and land use structure. The optimal allocation of land resources among various industrial sectors is of great significance to alleviate the contradiction between them.
Based on the survey data of land use change in Jinan from 2000 to 2011 and the data of three industries in Statistical Summary of Jinan City, this paper firstly analyzes the present situation and characteristics of the industrial structure and land use structure of each county (city) in Jinan City. Secondly, it analyzes the spatial and temporal changes of industrial structure and land use structure, and adopts information entropy. Finally, the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure is qualitatively analyzed, and the interaction between industrial structure and land use structure in Jinan is quantitatively analyzed by means of multiple linear regression and Granger causality test in econometrics. This paper analyzes the characteristics of each industry in Jinan, especially the characteristics of each industry in Jinan, and draws the conclusion that the industrial transfer affects the land use structure of Jinan.
From 2000 to 2011, the industrial structure of Jinan has been in the form of "three, two, one". The proportion of the primary industry has shown a downward trend, the proportion of the secondary industry has maintained a stable state, the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased, the industrial structure of the counties (cities) in Jinan has shown regional differences, the central area (Lixia District, City). Central District, Huaiyin District, Tianqiao District) is the main tertiary industry, suburbs (Licheng District, Changqing District, Pingyin County, Shanghe County, Jiyang County, Zhangqiu City) is the main secondary industry. The degree of structural concentration is enhanced.
From 2000 to 2011, the fastest changing land use type in Jinan was other land, followed by construction land, and finally agricultural land. The change degree of land use type in each county (city) area showed the same characteristics, and the fastest changing land use type in the central and suburban areas were all other land. Among all kinds of land use, the change speed of cultivated land is the slowest and the change speed of grassland is the fastest. The change speed of urban village and industrial and mining land is the fastest, and that of water area and water conservancy facilities land is the slowest. The model shows that the order degree of land use structure in Jinan City is reduced, and the area difference among different types of land use is gradually narrowed.
Through the analysis of structural change rate, it is concluded that the change rate of industrial structure and land use structure in Jinan is slow, indicating that the change rate of industrial structure in Jinan is slower than that of land use structure, so the adjustment of industrial structure in Jinan is lagging behind. Regression analysis of industrial structure and land use structure shows that the correlation between primary industry and land use structure is strongest, followed by tertiary industry.
At last, the paper points out that the industrial structure and land use structure of Jinan should be coordinated and interactive. Firstly, the grey relational degree of each industry in Jinan is analyzed. The result shows that the first industry has the highest relational degree with agriculture, the second industry has the highest relational degree with industry, and the third industry has the highest relational degree with other social services. The interior of the industry should be further readjusted, and the primary industry should be dominated by agriculture and supplemented by animal husbandry. The secondary industry should speed up the industrialization process, so as to promote the development of the construction industry and the tertiary industry. It is concluded that the adjustment of industrial structure can improve the efficiency of land resources allocation and the efficiency of urban land resources output.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F301.2;F279.2;F127

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