人民币汇率改革对大连市对外经济影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-09-08 10:09

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展，各国或地区间的经济交流变得越来越广泛和密切。在国家进行经济交流的过程中，汇率作为一个非常重要的因素，不仅会对一个国家的总体经济，特别是对外经济产生重要影响，而且会对地区经济，尤其是一些对外开放程度较高的城市产生重要影响。因此，在如今全球经济增长缓慢而我国经济仍保持快速增长，西方发达国家不断向我国施加压力，要求人民币升值的情况下，，研究汇率变动对一个国家或地区对外经济的影响具有非常深远的现实意义。鉴于此，笔者选取了我国第一批开放的14个沿海城市之一大连市作为研究对象，具体分析研究人民币汇率变动对其对外经济发展的影响，并为其今后的发展提出积极的政策建议。本文利用理论分析和实证分析、定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，对人民币实际有效汇率是如何影响大连市对外经济发展进行了分析和检验。本文共分为五部分。前两部分首先对国内外关于汇率变动对进出口贸易和外商直接投资影响的文献进行了简要综述，接着介绍了汇率的相关理论，并对汇率变动对贸易收支和外商直接投资影响的经典理论进行了系统的概述。第三部分首先介绍了人民币汇率制度的演变和现状，并分析了人民币汇率未来的升值趋势及其升值的原因；然后，结合大连市对外经济发展的状况，分析了大连市发展对外经济过程中存在的问题，为进一步分析实际汇率变动对大连市外向型经济的影响，提出了现实需求和实证基础；最后，从定性分析的角度分析研究了人民币汇率变动对大连市对外经济的影响，得出人民币实际汇率变动对大连市进出口贸易的影响确实符合“J”曲线效应，外商直接投资的变化情况也与传统理论相符的结论。在第四部分中，笔者借鉴已有的研究成果，建立了人民实际有效汇率与大连市进出口额和实际使用外商直接投资额的简易模型，运用多种计量经济学方法研究得出结论：首先，人民币实际有效汇率变动1%，大连市进口额变动1.717387%，出口额减少1.785199%；人民币实际有效汇率与大连市进出口额之间存在显著的因果关系。长期内，进出口汇率弹性系数绝对值之和大于1，所以马歇尔—勒纳条件在大连市是成立的，长期内人民币实际有效汇率升值会抑制大连市出口，增加大连市进口，恶化大连市贸易收支；短期内，出口汇率弹性系数和进口汇率弹性系数绝对值之和小于1，说明短期内汇率升值会改善大连市贸易收支，所以汇率对大连市贸易收支的影响存在明显的“J”曲线效应。其次，人民币实际有效汇率的变动与外商直接投资存在着负相关性，人民币实际有效汇率升值1%，大连市外商直接投资就减少10.81001%。因此人民币汇率升值不利于引进外资，不利于大连市对外经济的发展。最后，根据前文研究的结论，针对大连市政府和企业，提出了应对人民币汇率改革的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, economic exchanges among countries or regions have become more and more extensive and close. In the process of economic exchanges among countries, exchange rate, as a very important factor, will not only have an important impact on the overall economy of a country, especially on the external economy, but also on the regional economy, especially on some of them. Therefore, it is of great realistic significance to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on a country or region's external economy under the circumstances that the global economic growth is slow and China's economy is still growing rapidly and the western developed countries are constantly exerting pressure on China to revalue the RMB. In view of this, the author selects Dalian, one of the first 14 open coastal cities in China, as the research object, analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on its external economic development, and puts forward positive policy recommendations for its future development.
This paper analyzes and tests how the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi affects Dalian's foreign economic development by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
In the first two parts, firstly, the domestic and foreign literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export trade and foreign direct investment are briefly reviewed, then the relevant theories of exchange rate are introduced, and the classical theories of the impact of exchange rate changes on trade balance and foreign direct investment are systematically summarized.
The third part firstly introduces the evolution and current situation of the RMB exchange rate system, and analyzes the future appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate and the reasons for its appreciation; then, combined with the situation of Dalian's foreign economic development, analyzes the existing problems in the process of Dalian's foreign economic development, and further analyzes the real exchange rate changes in Dalian. Finally, from the perspective of qualitative analysis, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Dalian's foreign economy, and concludes that the impact of RMB real exchange rate change on Dalian's import and export trade really conforms to the "J" curve effect, and the change of foreign direct investment. A conclusion that is also consistent with the traditional theory.
In the fourth part, the author draws lessons from the existing research results, establishes a simple model of the real effective exchange rate of the people, the import and export volume of Dalian City and the actual use of foreign direct investment. Using a variety of econometric methods, the author draws the following conclusions: First, the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi changes by 1%, the import volume of Dalian City changes by 1.717387%, and the export volume changes by 1.717387%. In the long run, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the exchange rate of import and export is greater than 1, so the Marshall-Lerner condition is established in Dalian. In the long run, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will restrain the export of Dalian and increase greatly. In the short term, the absolute value of the elasticity coefficient of the export exchange rate and the elasticity coefficient of the import exchange rate is less than 1, which indicates that the appreciation of the exchange rate will improve the trade balance of Dalian in the short term, so the exchange rate has an obvious "J" curve effect on the trade balance of Dalian. Secondly, the effective exchange rate of Renminbi is the real effective exchange rate. There is a negative correlation between the change of RMB exchange rate and FDI. The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate is 1% and the decrease of FDI in Dalian is 10.81001%. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate is not conducive to the introduction of foreign capital and the development of Dalian's foreign economy.
Finally, according to the conclusions of the previous study, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the government and enterprises of Dalian to deal with the reform of RMB exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.6

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