中国能源经济可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-09-13 09:27

【摘要】：能源问题是关系中国国民经济增长和可持续发展的关键问题。随着中国经济的快速发展和工业化、城镇化进程的加快，能源需求不断增长。但是，中国能源利用效率偏低、经济增长方式粗放、能源结构不合理等一系列问题进一步加剧了能源供需矛盾。能源消费以煤为主，优质能源相对不足；煤炭消费是造成煤烟型大气污染的主要原因，也是温室气体排放的主要来源。以上状况持续下去，将给经济发展和生态环境带来更大的压力。因此，构建稳定的能源经济系统体系面临着重大挑战。论文结合国家能源经济发展的现状，在分析能源经济理论和可持续发展理论的基础上，将能源经济系统分为能源、经济、环境、人口四个子系统，运用系统工程的思想，对系统进行了中长期预测和两种方案的模拟比较，并构建了能源经济可持续发展的综合评价指标体系。首先，论文分析了中国能源经济系统模型的结构，对模型指标进行预测及设定，并绘制了系统动力学流图，，得到四个子系统的预测结果，结果表明：未来20年，中国能源消费总量的增长趋缓，煤炭仍为主要消费来源；电力产量不断增加，其主要来源为煤电；水电核电占总能耗的比重增长缓慢，天然气消费的增长较快，但其比重仍然很低；单位产值能耗明显降低，但始终处于较高水平；人均产值显著增加，但目前仍处于世界较低水平；环境压力较大，二氧化碳排放量不断增加；能源消费增长速度快于人口增长速度，人均能耗不断增加，国家仍处于工业化发展阶段。然后，论文研究了中国能源经济可持续发展综合评价指标体系的构成，并运用熵权法、Topsis法以及两者结合的方法对中国能源经济系统构建综合评价模型，结果表明：2001-2010年期间，可持续发展能力呈现增强的趋势，协调能力则先增强后减弱；能源发展水平和人口发展水平则呈现波动提升的趋势；经济发展水平从较差状态依次向很强状态过渡，其指标值逐年增大；而环境发展水平则呈现波动降低的趋势，且2003年显著提高、2008年之后明显下降。最后，根据以上研究结论提出如下建议：节能优先，提高能源利用效率；调整产业结构，合理配置能源资源，降低经济发展对煤炭的依赖程度；增加投资，加大石油、天然气的勘探力度；提高能源经济系统可持续发展能力的同时，要兼顾系统协调能力的提高；统筹规划能源、经济、人口与环境的协调发展，进而不断推进中国能源经济的可持续发展，等等。
[Abstract]:Energy problem is a key issue related to China's national economic growth and sustainable development. With the rapid development and industrialization of Chinese economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the energy demand is increasing. However, a series of problems, such as low energy efficiency, extensive economic growth and unreasonable energy structure, further aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand. Coal is the main source of air pollution and the main source of greenhouse gas emission is coal consumption. The above condition continues, will bring the greater pressure to the economic development and the ecological environment. Therefore, the construction of a stable energy economy system is facing a major challenge. On the basis of analyzing the theory of energy economy and the theory of sustainable development, the paper divides the energy economy system into four subsystems: energy, economy, environment and population, and applies the idea of system engineering. The medium and long term prediction of the system and the simulation comparison between the two schemes are carried out, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable development of energy economy is constructed. First of all, the paper analyzes the structure of the Chinese energy economy system model, forecasts and sets the model indexes, and draws the system dynamics flow diagram, and obtains the prediction results of four subsystems. The results show that: in the next 20 years, The growth of China's total energy consumption has slowed, with coal still the main source of consumption; electricity production is constantly increasing, mainly from coal and electricity; the proportion of hydropower and nuclear power to total energy consumption is growing slowly; and the consumption of natural gas is growing rapidly. However, its proportion is still very low; the energy consumption per unit output value is obviously reduced, but it is always at a higher level; the per capita output value has increased significantly, but is still at a relatively low level in the world; Energy consumption is growing faster than population, per capita energy consumption is increasing, and the country is still in the stage of industrialization. Then, the paper studies the composition of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of China's energy economy system by using the entropy weight method Topsis method and the method of combining the two methods. The results show that the period 2001-2010 is the period of 2001-2010. The ability of sustainable development shows an increasing trend, while the ability of coordination increases first and then weakens; the level of energy development and the level of population development show a trend of fluctuation and increase; the level of economic development moves from a poor state to a very strong state. The index value increased year by year, while the environmental development level showed a trend of fluctuation and decrease, which increased significantly in 2003 and decreased obviously after 2008. Finally, according to the above conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward: energy saving priority, improving energy use efficiency, adjusting industrial structure, rationally allocating energy resources, reducing the dependence of economic development on coal, increasing investment, increasing oil, The exploration of natural gas; improving the ability of sustainable development of energy economic system, at the same time, taking into account the improvement of the coordination ability of the system; planning the coordinated development of energy, economy, population and environment as a whole, And then continuously promote the sustainable development of China's energy economy, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5

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