邻国经济、外国企业FDI与老挝经济发展

发布时间：2018-09-17 20:45

【摘要】：1997年发生的亚洲金融风暴及2007年的金融海啸相继打击全球各国的经济增长。于2011年,OECD成员国只录得1.5%的经济增长,全球经济增长顿失动力。于是,世界各国都将目光放到经济增长较快的东南亚国家,例如老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸等成为世界经济新兴市场。虽然老挝于过去数十年一直是东南亚国家中发展最落后的国家之一,但经过二十多年的改革开放后,老挝逐步吸引更多外资,现正是东南亚国家中经济增长较快的地区之一。东南亚国家的经济增长成为全球经济增长的火车头后,区内各国透过税务优惠等措施加快与邻近国家进行更紧密的经贸合作政策。随着经济的蓬勃发展,区内贸易及投资等活动不断增多。老挝经济改革开放后,投资环境逐步改善,受惠于周边国家经济高速增长的动力,来自泰国、中国及越南等邻国的直接投资不断增长。然而,面对国内急速发展及外来投资不断增多,老挝政府必须谨慎分析各种急速变化所带来的影响,从而制订合适的政策,与中国、泰国、缅甸等周边国家共同发展,达至双赢。作者以老挝FDI作为中心,辅以中国、泰国等邻国的GDP、FDI资本存量、生产力等进行宏观经济的理论及实证分析,为老挝政府未来的发展方向做出指引。本研究各章节的具体内容如下：第1章,本章节主要提出全文的研究内容、目标及意义,并为全文订定严谨的框架,清晰的研究框架对全文脉络非常重要,确保本研究各章节都紧紧扣上主题。第2章,根据过往不同学者所做的分析研究,综述发展中国家的邻国经济发展及对FDI的影响,以及FDI对东道国经济增长及就业的影响,并从中找出过去不同研究的缺失,从而令本研究得到更清晰的研究方向和目标。第3章,本章节将会以老挝的经济、FDI的发展及投资环境的分析为其后研究FDI对老挝经济的影响打好根基。本章以老挝的历史、地理、政治、经济及文化等背景的一个综合分析作为开始,了解老挝的独特国情能令其后的理论及实证分析更为有效。其后,老挝FDI的分析由FDI于老挝发展的趋势开始,透彻了解FDI于老挝的发展情况；同时,本文将分析老挝改革开放以来的种种政策及法律修改对投资环境的影响,并通过与邻国吸引FDI的经验做出比较,了解外商到老挝投资的印象。最后,老挝政府为吸引FDI而大力推动发展特别经济区(SEZ),本章将会利用SWOT分析,研究老挝最近成立SEZ所遇到的机遇、威胁、优势及缺点,从而建议老挝政府做出针对性的政策,并参考邻国成功的经验,利用SEZ作为国家经济转型及发展的重要工具。第4章,详细了解以往的研究分析,以及老挝政治、经济、文化、投资发展等重要背景后,本章将会分析邻国经济、外国企业FDI与老挝经济发展,此章贯穿全文,为本研究理论研究的重心。本章首先分析邻国经济发展对老挝经济的影响,了解到老挝及邻近区域日益频繁及紧密的经济活动会推动老挝的FDI发展后,本文将理论分析老挝FDI对老挝经济增长、就业及生态环境等多方面的影响,最后总结出邻国经济如何透过FDI影响老挝长远的经济发展。第5章,文章开始理论研究结束,并正式进入实证研究部分,因实证研究的可靠度最主要取决于数据的质素及计量经济模型的运用。于是,本章节将会简单陈述后续章节将会用到的统计模型,让读者更了解统计结果的解释能力。第6章,利用第五章所选取的各种合适的计量经济模型于第六至第七章做出实证研究,分析外国企业FDI对老挝经济发展的影响。第六章将会研究老挝与邻国经济互动的影响,因考虑到样本数量有限,只能选择对老挝经济影响最深远的国家作重点的实证分析,因中国及泰国对老挝总体FDI的影响举足轻重,而老挝政府的政策亦重点与泰国及中国发展更紧密的经贸关系,于是本文决定选择中国及泰国作代表分析邻国经济对老挝的影响。首先以VECM脉冲响应(Impulse response)及方差分解(Variance decomposition)分析老挝GDP,FDI及生产力与泰国宏观经济之间的动态影响。其后,本章将加入中国,同时研究老挝、泰国、中国之间经济的动态关系。第7章,实证研究老挝FDI对其经济的影响,本章会首先以季节周期非线性自回归模型(Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model,SNAR)分析老挝FDI的发展特性,并将对此做出预测。其后,本文将以结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)分析FDI对老挝经济增长及生产力的影响。最后,由于经济变量异方差的特性,本文将会使用广义自回归条件异方差模型(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, GARCH)分析老挝FDI资本存量及GDP间的互动关系第8章,通过理论及实证分析研究,本文已经对邻国经济、FD!对老挝经济影响有充分的了解,本章将会画龙点睛地将纯粹的学术研究转为具体的政策建议。第9章,此章节总结全文,简洁有力地响应第一章所带出的问题,前后呼应。
[Abstract]:The Asian financial turmoil in 1997 and the financial tsunami in 2007 hit the world's economic growth one after another. In 2011, the OECD member countries recorded only 1.5% economic growth, and the global economic growth suddenly lost momentum. Economic emerging markets.
Although Laos has been one of the most underdeveloped countries in Southeast Asia in the past few decades, after more than 20 years of reform and opening up, Laos has gradually attracted more foreign capital, and now it is one of the fastest growing regions in Southeast Asia. With the vigorous development of the economy, trade and investment activities in the region have been increasing. After the reform and opening up of Laos economy, the investment environment has gradually improved, benefiting from the driving force of the rapid economic growth of the surrounding countries, such as Thailand, China and Vietnam. Direct investment continues to grow.
However, in the face of rapid domestic development and increasing foreign investment, the Lao government must carefully analyze the impact of various rapid changes, so as to formulate appropriate policies to achieve win-win development with China, Thailand, Myanmar and other neighboring countries. The productivity and other macroeconomic theories and empirical analysis will guide the future development direction of the Lao government.
The specific contents of each chapter are as follows:
Chapter 1, this chapter mainly proposes the research content, objectives and significance of the full text, and sets a rigorous framework for the full text. A clear research framework is very important to the context of the full text, to ensure that the research chapters are closely linked to the theme.
Chapter 2, based on the analysis and research done by different scholars in the past, summarizes the economic development of neighboring countries in developing countries and its impact on FDI, as well as the impact of FDI on economic growth and employment of host countries, and finds out the shortcomings of different studies in the past, so as to make this study more clear research directions and objectives.
Chapter 3 will lay a solid foundation for the study of the impact of FDI on the economy of Laos, the development of FDI and the analysis of investment environment. Afterwards, the analysis of FDI in Laos begins with the trend of FDI development in Laos, and thoroughly understands the development of FDI in Laos. At the same time, this paper will analyze the impact of various policies and legal amendments on the investment environment since the reform and opening-up of Laos, and make a comparison with the experience of neighboring countries in attracting FDI to understand the impression of foreign investment in Laos. Finally, in order to attract FDI, the Lao government will vigorously promote the development of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ). This chapter will use SWOT analysis to study the opportunities, threats, strengths and weaknesses of the recent establishment of SEZ in Laos. Therefore, it is suggested that the Lao government should make targeted policies and make use of SEZ as the focus of the country's economic transformation and development. Want a tool.
Chapter 4, after a detailed understanding of the past research and analysis, as well as the important political, economic, cultural, investment and development background of Laos, this chapter will analyze the economic development of neighboring countries, foreign enterprises FDI and Laos, this chapter runs through the full text, as the focus of this theoretical study. After the increasingly frequent and close economic activities in Laos and its neighboring regions will promote the development of Laos'FDI, this paper will theoretically analyze the impact of Laos' FDI on Laos'economic growth, employment and ecological environment, and finally summarize how the neighboring economies affect Laos' long-term economic development through FDI.
Chapter 5 begins with the conclusion of the theoretical study and enters into the empirical study, because the reliability of the empirical study mainly depends on the quality of the data and the use of econometric models.
Chapter 6 makes an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the economic development of Laos by using various appropriate econometric models selected in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 will study the impact of economic interaction between Laos and its neighbours. Considering the limited number of samples, only the country with the most profound economic impact on Laos can be selected. As China and Thailand play an important role in the overall FDI of Laos, and the policy of the Lao government focuses on developing closer economic and trade relations with Thailand and China, this paper chooses China and Thailand as the representative to analyze the impact of neighboring economies on Laos. Variance decomposition is used to analyze the dynamic effects of GDP, FDI and productivity in Laos on the macro-economy of Thailand.
Chapter 7 empirically studies the impact of Laos FDI on its economy. First, this chapter uses Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model (SNAR) to analyze the development characteristics of Laos FDI, and then makes a prediction. Then, this paper uses SVECM to analyze the economic growth and production of Laos. Finally, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model will be used to analyze the interaction between FDI capital stock and GDP in Laos because of the heteroscedasticity of economic variables.
Chapter 8, through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper has a full understanding of the economic impact of neighboring countries, FD! On the Laos economy, this chapter will focus on the pure academic research into specific policy recommendations.
In the ninth chapter, this chapter summarizes the whole text, and responds simply and effectively to the problems brought out in Chapter one.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F133.4

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