改革开放以来国家经济重心转移的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-10-10 07:27

【摘要】：改革开放30多年来，中国经济的发展速度和水平以及综合国力都迅速提高。但同时，由于宏观区域政策的倾斜所带来的人口和资本的流动，加上各地方自然区位条件及经济发展基础不同，我国各地区经济发展状况和水平呈现出极大的差别，因此区域差异成为学术界所关注的热点问题。为了探讨我国区域重心的变化及其影响因素，笔者以改革开放以来（1978年-2010年）全国除香港、澳门和台湾以外的31个省市自治区历年的GDP总量、常住人口数量以及固定资产投资额数据作为基础，另外通过测度改革开放以来主要的区域经济政策，以问卷调查的形式对各时期不同的区域政策根据其实施力度和涉及范围的广度分别评分，并设计了一套区域政策指数评价系统，将区域经济政策加以量化。然后根据上述GDP、人口、固定资产投资数据，利用重心公式，分别计算出从1978年以来中国经济重心、人口重心、固定资产投资重心以及区域政策重心的迁移情况。在此基础上，首先分别分析了人口迁移与经济重心转移之间的关系、固定资产投资转移与经济重心转移之间的关系以及区域政策倾斜对我国经济重心转移的影响。其次，综合人口、固定资产投资以及区域政策这三种对我国经济重心转移有较大影响的因素，将三者综合起来计算从1978年到2010年的综合影响。包括其迁移状况与实际经济重心迁移的状况是否一致，从趋势上观察远离还是趋近。最终得出结论：人口迁移、固定资产投资转移以及区域政策的倾斜都对经济重心转移有较大影响。但是，由于产业结构的调整，以劳动密集型为主的第二产业逐渐弱化，同时以知识密集型为主的第三产业开始发挥主导优势，由此而引起的人口迁移对象从之前的“民工潮”到现在的高技术人才，两者迁移在方向和数量上都有较大区别，由此看出经济发展的区域差异影响人口重心的分布。另外区域政策的倾斜所带动固定资产投资的转移，能否使当地经济快速持续发展还取决于当地的经济基础和产业结构，这也解释了为何在改革开放之初对东南沿海先行发展的倾斜区域政策及后来“西部大开发”、“中部崛起”等实行的效果有所差别。
[Abstract]:Over 30 years of reform and opening up, the speed and level of China's economic development and comprehensive national strength have improved rapidly. But at the same time, because of the migration of population and capital brought by the inclination of macro-regional policy, and the difference of local natural location conditions and economic development basis, the economic development status and level of different regions in China show great difference. Therefore, regional differences have become a hot issue in academic circles. In order to discuss the change of regional gravity center in China and its influencing factors, the total GDP of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in the past years since the reform and opening up (1978 to 2010) has been studied. Based on the data on the number of resident population and the investment in fixed assets, in addition, through the measurement of the major regional economic policies since the reform and opening up, In the form of questionnaire survey, the different regional policies in different periods are graded according to their implementation intensity and scope, and a regional policy index evaluation system is designed to quantify the regional economic policies. Then according to the above data of GDP, population and fixed assets investment and using the barycenter formula the migration of China's economic center population center of gravity fixed asset investment center and regional policy center of gravity since 1978 has been calculated respectively. On this basis, the relationship between population migration and economic center of gravity transfer, the relationship between fixed asset investment transfer and economic center of gravity transfer, and the influence of regional policy inclination on the transfer of economic center of gravity are analyzed respectively. Secondly, comprehensive population, investment in fixed assets and regional policies are the three factors that have great influence on the shift of economic center of gravity in China. The three factors are combined to calculate the comprehensive impact from 1978 to 2010. It includes whether its migration is consistent with the actual economic center of gravity, and whether it is far away or approaching from the trend. Finally, it is concluded that population migration, fixed asset investment transfer and the inclination of regional policies all have great influence on the shift of economic center of gravity. However, due to the adjustment of the industrial structure, the secondary industry, which is mainly labor-intensive, is gradually weakened, and the third industry, which is mainly knowledge-intensive, has begun to play a leading role. The population migration objects caused by them are different in direction and quantity from the previous "civil labor tide" to the present high-tech talents. It can be seen that the regional difference of economic development affects the distribution of population center of gravity. In addition, the tilt of regional policies has led to the transfer of fixed assets investment, and whether the rapid and sustainable development of the local economy depends on the local economic base and industrial structure. This also explains why the preferential regional policy for the first development of the southeast coast at the beginning of the reform and opening up policy and the later implementation of "the Great Development of the West" and "the rise of the Central China" have different effects.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124

【参考文献】