公共投资对私人投资的政策绩效分析

发布时间：2018-10-12 21:23

【摘要】：公共投资对私人投资既有正的挤入效应,又有负的挤出效应,净效应可能为正,也可能为负。资本存量对公共投资的政策效果具有重要影响,发展中国家资本存量水平较低,公共投资的挤入效应显著,而发达国家资本存量水平较高,挤出效应较为明显。公共投资是公共部门经常使用的一种财政政策,尤其是经济陷入低迷后,公共部门总是试图通过扩大公共投资,引导私人投资,扩大总需求以摆脱经济危机所带来的萧条。改革开放后,中国经济经历了不均衡的发展,东西部之间区域经济发展不平衡,公共投资的政策效果也将会存在较大差异。本文将公共投资引入到内生增长模型建立起公共投资和私人投资之间的关系,并利用系统GMM模型实证分析评价公共投资对私人投资的政策绩效。实证结果显示从整体上看公共投资对私人投资具有"挤入"效应,但由于资本存量存在差异,欠发达地区的"挤入"效应更加明显。
[Abstract]:Public investment has both positive crowding effect and negative crowding effect on private investment, and the net effect may be positive or negative. Capital stock has an important influence on the policy effect of public investment. The level of capital stock in developing countries is low, and the crowding effect of public investment is significant, while in developed countries the level of capital stock is higher and the crowding out effect is more obvious. Public investment is a kind of fiscal policy often used by the public sector, especially after the economic downturn, the public sector is always trying to expand public investment, guide private investment, expand aggregate demand to escape the depression caused by the economic crisis. After the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has experienced unbalanced development, the regional economic development between the east and the west is not balanced, and the policy effect of public investment will also have great differences. This paper introduces public investment into the endogenous growth model to establish the relationship between public investment and private investment, and uses systematic GMM model to analyze and evaluate the policy performance of public investment on private investment. The empirical results show that public investment has "crowding in" effect on private investment on the whole, but due to the difference of capital stock, the "crowding in" effect is more obvious in less developed areas.
【作者单位】：财政部财政科学研究所;
【分类号】：F124;F224

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