中国产业发展与城镇化互动研究——基于面板门槛回归模型的视角

发布时间：2018-10-20 13:34

【摘要】：产业发展与城镇化的互动关系,由改革开放之前简单、单调的仅由产业发展拉动城镇化,逐渐演变为改革开放后产业发展与城镇化复杂、丰富的互动关系。文章利用1982年以来的中国省级面板数据,使用门槛回归方法,对第二、三产业的相对发展水平与城镇化的互动形式进行了研究,发现产业发展对城镇化的拉动和城镇化对产业发展的推动,皆存在门槛效应,并根据回归结果体现的互动关系差异,对各省区的发展阶段进行了明确定位。
[Abstract]:The interactive relationship between industrial development and urbanization is simple before the reform and opening up, monotonous only by the industrial development to pull urbanization, and gradually evolved into a complex and rich interactive relationship between industrial development and urbanization after the reform and opening up. Using the provincial panel data since 1982 and the threshold regression method, this paper studies the interaction between the relative development level of the second and third industries and urbanization. It is found that both industrial development and urbanization have threshold effect on the development of industry. According to the difference of the interactive relationship reflected in the regression results, the development stage of provinces and districts is clearly positioned.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学区域与城市经济研究所;
【分类号】：F299.21;F121.3;F224

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