中国房价上升影响消费支出的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-07 20:41

【摘要】：我国自1998年实施住房体制改革以来，房地产价格持续上涨，房地产业规模不断壮大，与此同时，我国居民的消费率却表现疲软，作为国民经济支柱产业的房地产业在拉动内需、带动经济增长方面的作用极其重要，因此我们有必要弄清楚房地产价格波动与居民消费水平的内在联系。本文参考现有的西方学者的研究方法与思路，结合我国房地产市场当前的实际情况，理论和实证相结合的方法去探讨我国房地产价格与我国居民消费水平的内在联系。国内现有的关于房价波动与居民消费水平内在联系的文献主要关注的是房价波动对我国总体消费水平的影响，很少涉及到不同收入群体的细分研究，本文正是以这为突破点和创新点，去探讨我国不同收入群体的消费水平受房价波动的影响。理论部分，我们详细阐述了房地产财富效应的传导机制；实证部分，我们根据1999-2011年我国不同收入群体的消费性支出、人均可支配收入、商品房销售价格、股票价格指数等数据，利用VAR模型和个体固定效应回归模型去深入分析我国房地产价格波动对不同收入群体消费水平的影响。本文的实证结果表明，在影响居民消费支出的各种因素中，可支配收入这一要素仍是最主要的；房价的过快上涨对低收入群体的消费支出基本没有影响；房价的过快上涨抑制了中等收入群体和高收入群体的消费支出，房地产财富效应整体表现为负效应，即房地产价格的上涨导致的房产增值并没有促进居民消费，，反而对居民消费产生了明显的“挤出效应”。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of housing system reform in 1998, real estate prices have been rising and the scale of real estate has been growing. At the same time, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has been weak, and the real estate industry, as a pillar industry of the national economy, is driving domestic demand. The role of driving economic growth is extremely important, so we need to understand the real estate price fluctuations and residents' consumption level. This article refers to the existing research methods and ideas of western scholars, combining with the current real estate market situation in our country, the combination of theory and empirical method to explore the internal relationship between the real estate price of our country and the consumption level of our country's residents. The existing literature on the relationship between house price fluctuation and residents' consumption level is mainly concerned with the impact of house price fluctuation on the overall consumption level of our country, and rarely involves the subdivision of different income groups. This paper takes this as the breakthrough point and innovation point to explore the influence of the fluctuation of house price on the consumption level of different income groups in China. In the theoretical part, we elaborate the transmission mechanism of real estate wealth effect in detail; In the empirical part, we based on the data of consumption expenditure, per capita disposable income, sale price of commercial housing, stock price index and so on, of different income groups in China from 1999 to 2011. VAR model and individual fixed effect regression model are used to analyze the effect of real estate price fluctuation on the consumption level of different income groups in China. The empirical results of this paper show that the disposable income is still the most important factor in the various factors that affect the consumption expenditure of the residents, and the excessive rise of house prices has no effect on the consumption expenditure of the low-income group. The excessive rise in house prices has restrained the consumption spending of the middle-income and high-income groups, while the wealth effect of real estate has shown a negative effect on the whole, that is, the property appreciation caused by the rise in real estate prices has not promoted the consumption of residents. On the contrary, the consumption of residents produced a clear "crowding out effect."
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

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