汇率变动对我国产业结构转型升级影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-08 16:48
【摘要】：汇率和产业结构是目前我国由来已久十分关注的两大热点问题。自从改革开放以来,我国的经济发展迅速,尤其是我国加入WTO组织以后,国内的经济逐渐的与世界经济接轨,而汇率作为平衡各国之间贸易与经济的重要武器,在各国的经济发展中都有着举足轻重的地位。所以汇率的变动不仅仅影响我国的进出口贸易额和外商直接投资额,甚至更深层次的影响我国的产业结构,从而对我国的产业结构转型升级产生重大的影响。汇率的变动可以变外需为内需,加快我国产业结构转型升级的步伐。灵活有弹性的汇率机制有益于调节我国的产业结构。甚至汇率的变动使我国在国际分工中的地位得到改善,从而改变产业结构。虽然目前的很多研究认为汇率的变动对我国的产业结构转型升级是有一定的影响的,但是多数的研究都是从单个企业的产业结构出发来研究汇率与产业结构的关系,而且对于汇率和产业结构二者的研究也大部分局限于国际贸易方面,宏观上的研究成果存在空缺。但是随着金融市场不断完善,金融规模不断扩大,产业结构的不断调整有必要对汇率和产业结构转型升级进行系统的研究,从宏观上来把握有利于促进我国产业结构的转型升级。本文主要通过分析我国多年的汇率与我国三大产业之间的关系来发现我国产业结构转型升级的方向,从三大产业结构的角度来反映我国产业结构的转型升级。 本文由五个部分组成,第一章绪论,首先分析了本文的的选题背景和选题意义,说明选择本选题的原因,然后通过分析前人的研究成果,总结文献综述,接着给出研究框架以及本文的创新和不足。从第二章开始为本文的主体部分,第二章汇率变动影响产业结构转型升级的理论综述为本文的基础,主要交代了汇率、汇率变动、产业结构以及产业转型升级的相关概念,同时给出了产业结构转型升级的理论。第三章是汇率变动影响产业结构转型升级的因素分析,主要叙述汇率对产业结构转型升级产生了怎样的影响,所以首先介绍了我国汇率形成机制演变路径分析,然后具体赘述我国产业结构转型升级存在的问题,以及在我国漫长的汇率机制形成过程中产业结构转型升级存在着怎样的问题。第四章的是汇率变动影响产业结构转型升级的作用机理分析,这一章是文章的主体部分,选取了变量和数据,分别利用单位根检验和协整检验分析实际有效汇率与三大产业之间的关系,构建模型得出结论,最后利用格兰杰因果检验检验了实际有效汇率与三大产业之间的因果关系。第五章是结论与政策建议,首先对全文的结论进行了汇总,然后根据文章提出的问题以及实证的结果并结合实际提出一些对策建议。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate and industrial structure are two hot issues that our country has been paying close attention to for a long time. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially after China's entry into the WTO, the domestic economy is gradually in line with the world economy, and the exchange rate is an important weapon to balance the trade and economy between countries. In the economic development of all countries have a pivotal position. Therefore, the change of exchange rate not only affects China's import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment, but also has a deep impact on the industrial structure of our country, thus has a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The change of exchange rate can change external demand into domestic demand and accelerate the pace of industrial structure transformation and upgrading in China. Flexible and flexible exchange rate mechanism is beneficial to adjust the industrial structure of our country. Even the change of exchange rate improves China's position in the international division of labor, thus changing the industrial structure. Although many studies believe that the exchange rate changes have a certain impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, most of the studies are based on the industrial structure of a single enterprise to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the industrial structure. Moreover, the research on exchange rate and industrial structure is mostly limited to international trade. However, with the continuous improvement of the financial market and the expansion of the financial scale, it is necessary to make a systematic study on the exchange rate and the upgrading of the industrial structure with the constant adjustment of the industrial structure. From the macro view to grasp conducive to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. By analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and the three major industries in China, this paper finds out the direction of the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, and reflects the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of our country from the perspective of the three major industrial structures. This paper is composed of five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, explains the reasons for choosing this topic, and then summarizes the literature review by analyzing the previous research results. Then the research framework and the innovation and deficiency of this paper are given. Chapter 2 is the main part of this paper. Chapter two summarizes the theory of exchange rate change affecting industrial structure transformation and upgrading. It mainly explains the concepts of exchange rate, exchange rate change, industrial structure and industrial transformation and upgrading. At the same time, the theory of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is given. The third chapter is the analysis of the factors that the exchange rate change affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, mainly narrates how the exchange rate affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, so the paper first introduces the evolution path of the exchange rate formation mechanism of our country. Then the problems of the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in China and the problems in the process of the formation of the exchange rate mechanism in China are described in detail. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the mechanism of the exchange rate change affecting the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, this chapter is the main part of the article, selected variables and data, The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the three industries is analyzed by unit root test and cointegration test, and the model is constructed. Finally, Granger causality test is used to test the causality between the real effective exchange rate and the three major industries. The fifth chapter is the conclusions and policy recommendations, first of all the conclusions of the full text are summarized, then according to the problems raised in the article and empirical results, combined with the actual put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F832.6
本文编号：2319093
[Abstract]:Exchange rate and industrial structure are two hot issues that our country has been paying close attention to for a long time. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially after China's entry into the WTO, the domestic economy is gradually in line with the world economy, and the exchange rate is an important weapon to balance the trade and economy between countries. In the economic development of all countries have a pivotal position. Therefore, the change of exchange rate not only affects China's import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment, but also has a deep impact on the industrial structure of our country, thus has a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The change of exchange rate can change external demand into domestic demand and accelerate the pace of industrial structure transformation and upgrading in China. Flexible and flexible exchange rate mechanism is beneficial to adjust the industrial structure of our country. Even the change of exchange rate improves China's position in the international division of labor, thus changing the industrial structure. Although many studies believe that the exchange rate changes have a certain impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, most of the studies are based on the industrial structure of a single enterprise to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the industrial structure. Moreover, the research on exchange rate and industrial structure is mostly limited to international trade. However, with the continuous improvement of the financial market and the expansion of the financial scale, it is necessary to make a systematic study on the exchange rate and the upgrading of the industrial structure with the constant adjustment of the industrial structure. From the macro view to grasp conducive to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. By analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and the three major industries in China, this paper finds out the direction of the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure, and reflects the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of our country from the perspective of the three major industrial structures. This paper is composed of five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, explains the reasons for choosing this topic, and then summarizes the literature review by analyzing the previous research results. Then the research framework and the innovation and deficiency of this paper are given. Chapter 2 is the main part of this paper. Chapter two summarizes the theory of exchange rate change affecting industrial structure transformation and upgrading. It mainly explains the concepts of exchange rate, exchange rate change, industrial structure and industrial transformation and upgrading. At the same time, the theory of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is given. The third chapter is the analysis of the factors that the exchange rate change affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, mainly narrates how the exchange rate affects the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, so the paper first introduces the evolution path of the exchange rate formation mechanism of our country. Then the problems of the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in China and the problems in the process of the formation of the exchange rate mechanism in China are described in detail. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the mechanism of the exchange rate change affecting the industrial structure transformation and upgrading, this chapter is the main part of the article, selected variables and data, The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the three industries is analyzed by unit root test and cointegration test, and the model is constructed. Finally, Granger causality test is used to test the causality between the real effective exchange rate and the three major industries. The fifth chapter is the conclusions and policy recommendations, first of all the conclusions of the full text are summarized, then according to the problems raised in the article and empirical results, combined with the actual put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F832.6
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 孙咏梅,祝金甫;汇率低估与中国经济结构调整[J];财经问题研究;2005年04期
2 姜波克;;均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的再探索[J];复旦学报(社会科学版);2007年02期
3 哈继铭;;人民币升值对各行业的影响[J];股市动态分析;2010年13期
4 龙强;人民币适度升值与贸易问题研究[J];广西财政高等专科学校学报;2005年03期
5 刘宇;姜波克;;汇率变动与经济增长方式的转换——基于结构优化的视角[J];国际金融研究;2008年10期
6 李天栋;;人民币汇率政策的目标与条件——基于经济增长视角的研究[J];国际贸易;2006年06期
7 雷德辉;;人民币汇率升值对我国制成品出口商品结构的影响[J];广西财经学院学报;2007年01期
8 吴海燕,李钰;人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易的影响[J];经济论坛;2004年12期
9 谈儒勇;中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究[J];经济研究;1999年10期
10 杜金岷;廖俭;;人民币升值与广东省产业结构优化研究[J];暨南学报(哲学社会科学版);2008年05期
，本文编号：2319093
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/zhongguojingjilunwen/2319093.html
