基于系统动力学的青岛市港城系统互动发展研究

发布时间：2018-11-10 14:06

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的世界经济发展趋势，国际贸易逐渐繁荣，国际产业开始在世界范围内转移，产业开始向港口聚集，现代港口成为了产业及经济发展中的重要部分。港口与城市形成的港城系统间存在正负两种作用力，因此处理好港口与所在城市的关系日益被人们所重视。本文的研究力在寻求改善青岛市港城系统运行的机会和途径，为港口城市如何实现港城系统协调发展提供理论指导和决策支持。首先，本文综述了国内外学者在港口与城市关系定性研究、港口与城市关系的定量研究及系统动力学三个方面的研究现状。在此基础上，本文阐述了相关港城系统理论。概述了港城系统的内涵和特征，，并阐述了港城互动发展的演变阶段。其次，考察了青岛市港城系统发展现状，对港城系统内部各个子系统进行了划分，进而选取可操作的性能指标建立了适合当地实际情况的港城系统综合性能指标体系；然后，运用系统动力学的方法，建立了青岛市港城系统动力学仿真模型，并针对此模型采取了两种不同的政策方案进行动态仿真模拟试验。在不同方案的仿真模拟运行下，本文针对青岛市港城系统中主要存在的不同变量进行了数据的综合对比分析，得出了在限定条件下能推动港城系统协调发展的较好方案。最后，根据模型结果和青岛市港城系统实际发展现状，本文主要从增大交通运输投资，完善基础设施、建设以港口为依托的临港工业体系、调整产业结构，发展现代服务业、扩大港口腹地辐射区域、优化港口资源，提高使用效率等五个方面入手，提出了能促进青岛市港城系统更加协调发展的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:With the development trend of the world economy of economic globalization, the international trade is flourishing gradually, the international industry begins to transfer in the world scope, the industry begins to gather to the port, the modern port has become the important part of the industry and the economic development. There are positive and negative forces between port and city system, so people pay more and more attention to the relationship between port and city. The research power of this paper is to seek the opportunity and the way to improve the operation of the port city system in Qingdao, and to provide theoretical guidance and decision support for how to realize the coordinated development of the port city system in the port city. First of all, this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars' qualitative research on the relationship between port and city, the quantitative study on the relationship between port and city, and the research status of system dynamics. On this basis, this article elaborated the related port city system theory. This paper summarizes the connotation and characteristics of the port-city system, and expounds the evolution stage of the interaction between the port and the city. Secondly, the development status of Qingdao port and city system is investigated, and each subsystem of port city system is divided, and then the comprehensive performance index system of port and city system is established according to the actual situation of the port and city system by selecting the operable performance index. Then, the simulation model of Qingdao port city system dynamics is established by using the method of system dynamics, and two different policy schemes are adopted to carry out dynamic simulation experiments. Based on the simulation and simulation of different schemes, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison and analysis of the main variables in Qingdao Port City system, and obtains a better scheme to promote the coordinated development of Port and City system under limited conditions. Finally, according to the results of the model and the actual development situation of Qingdao Port City system, this paper mainly from the increase of transportation investment, improve infrastructure, build a port based port industrial system, adjust the industrial structure, develop modern service industry. Five aspects, such as expanding radiation region of port hinterland, optimizing port resources and improving utilization efficiency, are discussed. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of Qingdao Port City system.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.7;F127;N941.3

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