中国居民消费率和储蓄率关系研究

发布时间：2018-11-12 19:04

【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化的高速发展，中国经济也进入了重要时期，但居民的高储蓄率低消费率对我国经济发展也带来了一定程度的负面影响。根据中国统计年鉴的数据分析，我国居民储蓄率不断增加，其增加的幅度远远大于居民的消费率，大量的资金以储蓄存款的方式积累在银行等金融机构，形成的高储蓄率使银行负债增加，金融风险加剧。因此，研究居民储蓄率和消费率的关系，并找出影响居民消费率和居民储蓄率关系的影响因素进一步分析二者关系才能更好地提高居民消费率降低居民储蓄率，从而促进国民经济的良性循环，是目前中国经济发展面临的重要问题。文中主要采用文献研究和实证研究两种方法，其研究结构概况如下：研究国内外居民消费率和居民储蓄率的研究方法和结果，对中国居民储蓄率和居民消费率关系的现状及对中国经济的影响。用共同影响居民储蓄率与消费率的五个因素:消费者价格指数增长率、商品房平均价格增长率、老龄化指数、社会保障水平、居民人均可支配收入增长率分别与二者建立计量模型，分析对二者的影响关系。其次，结合居民消费率和居民储蓄率关系的现状，从影响居民消费率和居民储蓄率的五个因素即消费者价格指数增长率、商品房平均价格增长率、老龄化指数、社会保障水平、居民人均可支配收入增长率的实证分析结果。在建立计量模型，利用历年居民储蓄率与消费率数据分析二者的影响关系，经过实证分析得出居民消费率与居民储蓄率呈负相关关系，并且这五个影响因素对二者的影响关系也相反，影响程度也有所不同。根据实证分析结果，提出改善现在我国居民消费率过低，居民储蓄率过高的现状，，就要采取的措施：推进消费模式改革，提高居民消费率；建立合理机制调控商品房价格；改革养老保险制度；建立完善的社会保障体系；提高居民收入水平，增加居民可支配收入，推动消费等。最后，本文从实体经济推动经济发展的角度提出促使居民消费率提高，居民储蓄率降低的建议。一方面要提升消费、扩大内需，以消费拉动经济，增加居民消费率，加快储蓄资金的区域流动性，减少居民储蓄率，缓解储蓄资金分布不平衡。另一方面，加强对经济体制的改革，逐步调整产业结构和完成产业结构升级，从而增加居民消费率降低居民储蓄率，达到经济持久稳定增长最终目的。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economic globalization, China's economy has entered an important period, but the high saving rate of residents and low consumption rate have also brought a certain degree of negative impact on the economic development of our country. According to the data analysis of the China Statistical Yearbook, the resident savings rate in China is increasing, and the increase is far greater than the consumption rate of the residents. A large number of funds have been accumulated in banks and other financial institutions in the form of savings deposits. The formation of a high savings rate increased bank liabilities and increased financial risk. Therefore, this paper studies the relationship between resident savings rate and consumption rate, and finds out the influencing factors that affect the relationship between resident consumption rate and resident savings rate. Only by further analyzing the relationship between them, can the consumption rate of residents be improved better and the saving rate of residents be reduced. In order to promote the virtuous circle of national economy, it is an important problem that China's economic development faces at present. This paper mainly adopts two methods of literature research and empirical research, its research structure is as follows: the research methods and results of the domestic and foreign residents' consumption rate and the resident savings rate, The current situation of the relationship between the saving rate and the consumption rate of Chinese residents and its impact on the Chinese economy. Using the five factors that affect the household savings rate and consumption rate together: the growth rate of consumer price index, the average price growth rate of commercial housing, the aging index, the level of social security, The growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents and the two models are established, and the relationship between them is analyzed. Secondly, according to the current situation of the relationship between resident consumption rate and resident savings rate, from the five factors that affect the consumption rate and the household savings rate, that is, the growth rate of consumer price index, the average price growth rate of commercial housing, the aging index, the level of social security, Empirical analysis of per capita disposable income growth rate. In the establishment of econometric model, using the data of household savings rate and consumption rate over the years to analyze the relationship between them, the empirical analysis shows that there is a negative correlation between resident consumption rate and household savings rate. And the influence of these five factors on the relationship between them is also opposite, the degree of influence is also different. According to the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some measures to improve the current situation of the low consumption rate and high savings rate of residents in China: to promote the reform of consumption pattern, to increase the consumption rate of residents, to establish a reasonable mechanism to regulate and control the prices of commercial housing; Reform the old-age insurance system, establish a perfect social security system, raise the income level of the residents, increase the disposable income of the residents, promote consumption and so on. Finally, from the point of view of promoting the economic development of the real economy, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the increase of the consumption rate and the decrease of the savings rate of the residents. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase consumption, expand domestic demand, stimulate the economy with consumption, increase the consumption rate of residents, speed up the regional liquidity of savings funds, reduce the savings rate of residents and alleviate the imbalance in the distribution of savings funds. On the other hand, we should strengthen the reform of the economic system, gradually adjust the industrial structure and complete the upgrading of the industrial structure, so as to increase the consumption rate of the residents and reduce the saving rate of the residents, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of sustained and stable economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.22

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