劳动者报酬占比、城乡收入分配与中国居民消费率——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-13 15:00

【摘要】：提高居民消费率对中国经济发展方式转型具有至关重要的意义。针对劳动者报酬占比、城乡收入差距和居民消费率,可以提出三个假说:(1)在边际消费倾向递减的前提下,平均消费倾向伴随着收入增长而不断下降;(2)在平均消费倾向递减的情形下,收入分配差距与平均消费倾向变动反相关;(3)在控制其他变量的条件下,居民消费率与劳动者报酬占比正相关,而与居民收入差距反相关。基于逻辑推演,采用1992-2012年中国31个省区的面板数据进行研究,实证结果支持了上述假说。中国居民消费率受到收入差距、人口结构以及财政格局等多重因素的影响,劳动者报酬占比提高1个百分点,会导致居民消费率提高0.2658个百分点,而城乡收入差距提高1个百分点,会导致居民消费率下降0.0612个百分点。
[Abstract]:Increasing the consumption rate is of vital importance to the transformation of China's economic development mode. In view of the proportion of workers' remuneration, the income gap between urban and rural areas and the consumption rate of residents, we can put forward three hypotheses: (1) under the premise of decreasing marginal propensity to consume, the average propensity of consumption decreases with the increase of income; (2) in the case of decreasing average consumption tendency, the income distribution gap is inversely related to the change of average consumption tendency; (3) under the condition of controlling other variables, the consumption rate is positively correlated with the proportion of workers' remuneration, but it is inversely related to the income gap. Based on logical extrapolation, the panel data of 31 provinces and regions in China from 1992 to 2012 are used to study. The empirical results support the above hypothesis. The consumption rate of Chinese residents is affected by many factors, such as income gap, population structure and financial structure, and the proportion of workers' remuneration increases by 1 percentage point, which will lead to an increase of 0.2658 percentage points in the resident consumption rate. An increase in the urban-rural income gap of 1 percentage point will lead to a decrease in the consumption rate of 0.062 percentage points.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国城乡要素交换关系完善的理论研究与实证分析”(12CJL039) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目“中国城乡二元经济结构转化的政治经济学”(NCET-11-0105) 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“转型发展背景下上海化解新二元结构问题研究”(2012FJL001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F249.24;F126;F124.7;F224

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