基于VECM模型的江苏省消费结构、产业结构与经济增长关系研究
发布时间：2018-11-20 04:55
【摘要】：经济学界一直以来都比较热衷于研究消费结构、产业结构和经济增长的关系问题。然而，大多数是对该问题进行规范分析,较少有人进行实证分析,而且现有的实证分析主要集中于两个问题:其一是关于消费结构调整对产业结构升级的影响；其二是关于产业结构升级对经济增长的影响。把三者的关系割裂为两个问题进行研究，并不能如实地反映消费结构、产业结构与经济增长之间的内在关系。基于此，本文把消费结构、产业结构与经济增长三者之间的关系当作一个系统，从理论和实际的角度，分析该系统内部的作用机制，即三者内在的本质关系。 首先，本文从理论的角度分析，得出消费结构、产业结构与经济增长两两之间具有相互影响、互为因果关系的结论。 然后，，选择城镇居民和农村居民的恩格尔系数作为衡量消费结构的指标，选择第二产业、第三产业在国内生产总值的比重作为衡量产业结构的指标，选择剔除价格因素之后的GDP的可比价作为衡量经济增长的指标，以江苏省为例，通过建立VECM模型，进一步实证分析消费结构、产业结构与经济增长之间的动态互动关系。 最终，协整检验证明江苏省消费结构、产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系；脉冲响应函数和方差分解又进一步阐释了消费结构、产业结构与经济增长之间的短期动态波动关系。 因此，理论分析和实证研究得出了一致结论：消费结构、产业结构与经济增长两两之间存在双向作用关系。消费结构的调整，不仅能带动产业结构升级，而且还能进一步促进经济增长；同样，产业结构的升级，在促进经济增长的同时，又反过来影响消费结构的调整；而经济增长也同样有助于消费结构的调整和产业结构的升级。
[Abstract]:Economists have been keen to study the relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. However, most of them are normative analysis of the problem, few people do empirical analysis, and the existing empirical analysis mainly focuses on two problems: one is about the impact of the adjustment of consumption structure on the upgrading of industrial structure; The second is about the impact of industrial structure upgrading on economic growth. The relationship between them is divided into two problems, which can not reflect the inner relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Based on this, this paper regards the relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth as a system. From the angle of theory and practice, this paper analyzes the internal action mechanism of the system, that is, the intrinsic essential relationship among the three. Firstly, from the perspective of theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have mutual influence and cause and effect. Then, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is chosen as the index to measure the consumption structure, the secondary industry and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP as the index to measure the industrial structure. This paper selects the comparable price of GDP after excluding the price factor as the index to measure the economic growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, through establishing the VECM model, the dynamic interaction among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth is analyzed empirically. Finally, the cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. Impulse response function and variance decomposition further explain the short-term dynamic fluctuation relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Therefore, theoretical analysis and empirical research have reached a consistent conclusion: consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have a two-way relationship. The adjustment of consumption structure can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also further promote economic growth; similarly, the upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes economic growth, but also affects the adjustment of consumption structure. And economic growth is also helpful to the adjustment of consumption structure and upgrading of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126.1;F127;F279.2
本文编号：2343806
[Abstract]:Economists have been keen to study the relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. However, most of them are normative analysis of the problem, few people do empirical analysis, and the existing empirical analysis mainly focuses on two problems: one is about the impact of the adjustment of consumption structure on the upgrading of industrial structure; The second is about the impact of industrial structure upgrading on economic growth. The relationship between them is divided into two problems, which can not reflect the inner relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Based on this, this paper regards the relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth as a system. From the angle of theory and practice, this paper analyzes the internal action mechanism of the system, that is, the intrinsic essential relationship among the three. Firstly, from the perspective of theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have mutual influence and cause and effect. Then, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is chosen as the index to measure the consumption structure, the secondary industry and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP as the index to measure the industrial structure. This paper selects the comparable price of GDP after excluding the price factor as the index to measure the economic growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, through establishing the VECM model, the dynamic interaction among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth is analyzed empirically. Finally, the cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. Impulse response function and variance decomposition further explain the short-term dynamic fluctuation relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Therefore, theoretical analysis and empirical research have reached a consistent conclusion: consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have a two-way relationship. The adjustment of consumption structure can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also further promote economic growth; similarly, the upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes economic growth, but also affects the adjustment of consumption structure. And economic growth is also helpful to the adjustment of consumption structure and upgrading of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126.1;F127;F279.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 苏大鹏;;安徽省产业结构、城乡居民消费结构与经济增长的实证分析[J];怀化学院学报;2015年08期
本文编号：2343806
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