全球化冲击下的收入分配结构与经常账户失衡
发布时间：2018-11-23 14:54
【摘要】：自新世纪以来,全球经常账户形成了以美国为代表的发达国家逆差和以中国为代表的发展中国家顺差的持续性失衡。这既对全球稳定增长造成了威胁,也对现有的经济理论提出了挑战。本文认为,全球化冲击下的功能性收入分配结构变动是导致全球失衡的重要原因,并从理论和实证两个方面研究收入分配结构对经常账户的作用机制。 在理论模型方面,本文首先基于卡莱茨基收入分配-有效需求理论,推导了收入分配对经常账户的一般传导机制。模型显示：相对劳动收入份额的变化对经常账户占比的作用方向并不确定,与国家的经济结构有关；随着经济开放度的提高,劳动收入份额会下降,而经常账户改善；要调整经常账户余额,可通过调节劳动力市场的垄断程度,以及原料成本与工资的比例,调节收入分配结构来实现。其次,基于预防性储蓄理论,解释南北国家间巨大的储蓄差异,我们发现这种差异不仅仅源自总体收入水平的差别,更与社会保障体制、金融市场制度等制度因素密切相关,而这直接影响经常账户的变化。最后,从劳动市场结构的角度对发达国家间经常账户的差异进行逻辑分析,模型显示：存在协商机制的国家,国内核心产业得以维持,在国际产品市场上占有一席之地,经常账户顺差；而不存在协商机制的国家可能出现产业萎缩、工人失业等问题,经常账户逆差。 本文选择19个主要全球经常账户失衡的国家,分为发达国家和发展中国家两个样本,就1990-2010年的数据进行面板数据回归。回归结果表明：相对劳动力成本、实际有效汇率、直接投资净流入量都对发达国家的经常账户产生显著影响,相对劳动力成本对发达国家经常账户的作用系数较大；发展中国家的回归结果不太一致：收入分配结构不平衡是影响中国和菲律宾经常账户失衡的主要原因,而政府主导的经济政策转变对泰国和印尼的经常账户变化起关键作用,马来西亚的经常账户主要受实际有效汇率变动的影响。实证结果也显示,在经济全球化过程中,新兴国家拥有廉价的劳动力可提高其在世界经济中的竞争力,相对劳动力成本增长率与经常账户顺差占比呈正向关系。随着新兴国家相对劳动力成本比较优势下降,政策引导、相对价格等因素对经常账户占比的影响力会更加突出。 从收入分配角度看,当前全球治理的关键在于提高全球总需求水平,改善全球性供大于求的结构性扭曲状况。这要求发达国家改变劳动者收入分配下降的趋势,提高中低收入者的收入比重,建立劳资关系的协调机制。而在新兴国家,重点应改变劳动力市场的完全竞争格局,构造劳动力市场寡头垄断结构。政府则应强化再分配功能,提高社会保障水平,稳定收入预期,从而提高消费在总需求中的比重。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, the global current account has formed the deficit of the developed countries represented by the United States and the persistent imbalance of the surplus of the developing countries represented by China. This poses both a threat to stable global growth and a challenge to existing economic theory. This paper holds that the change of functional income distribution structure under the impact of globalization is an important cause of global imbalance, and studies the mechanism of the effect of income distribution structure on current account from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In terms of theoretical model, this paper first deduces the general transmission mechanism of income distribution to current account based on Kaletsky's income distribution-effective demand theory. The model shows that the change of the relative labor income share is uncertain in the direction of the current account share, which is related to the economic structure of the country, and with the increase of economic openness, the labor income share will decrease, while the current account will improve. To adjust the current account balance, we can adjust the monopoly degree of labor market, the ratio of raw material cost to wage, and adjust the income distribution structure. Secondly, based on the precautionary saving theory, we explain the huge difference in savings between North and South countries. We find that this difference is not only derived from the difference in the overall income level, but also closely related to the system factors such as social security system, financial market system, etc. This directly affects changes in the current account. Finally, from the perspective of labor market structure, the paper analyzes the differences of current account between developed countries. The model shows that in countries with negotiation mechanism, domestic core industries can be maintained and have a place in the international product market. Current account surplus; Countries that do not have consultation mechanisms may suffer from shrinking industries, unemployment and current-account deficits. In this paper, 19 countries with major global current account imbalances are divided into developed and developing countries. The data from 1990 to 2010 are analyzed by panel data regression. The regression results show that the relative labor cost, the real effective exchange rate, and the net inflow of direct investment have a significant impact on the current account of developed countries, and the relative labor cost has a great effect on the current account of developed countries. The return results in developing countries have been mixed: imbalances in the income distribution structure have been the main cause of current account imbalances in China and the Philippines, while changes in government-led economic policy have played a key role in changes in the current account in Thailand and Indonesia. Malaysia's current account is mainly affected by movements in the real effective exchange rate. The empirical results also show that in the process of economic globalization, the emerging countries have cheap labor to improve their competitiveness in the world economy, and the relative labor cost growth rate is positively related to the current account surplus. As emerging countries' relative comparative advantage in labour costs declines, policy guidance, relative prices and other factors will have a greater impact on the current account ratio. In terms of income distribution, the key to current global governance is to raise the level of global aggregate demand and to improve the structural distortions of global oversupply. This requires developed countries to change the declining trend of workers' income distribution, raise the proportion of income of middle and low income earners, and establish a coordination mechanism of labor relations. In emerging countries, emphasis should be placed on changing the pattern of complete competition in the labour market and structuring the oligopoly structure of the labour market. The government should strengthen the function of redistribution, raise the level of social security, stabilize the income expectation, and increase the proportion of consumption in the total demand.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F113.8;F224
本文编号：2351854
[Abstract]:Since the new century, the global current account has formed the deficit of the developed countries represented by the United States and the persistent imbalance of the surplus of the developing countries represented by China. This poses both a threat to stable global growth and a challenge to existing economic theory. This paper holds that the change of functional income distribution structure under the impact of globalization is an important cause of global imbalance, and studies the mechanism of the effect of income distribution structure on current account from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In terms of theoretical model, this paper first deduces the general transmission mechanism of income distribution to current account based on Kaletsky's income distribution-effective demand theory. The model shows that the change of the relative labor income share is uncertain in the direction of the current account share, which is related to the economic structure of the country, and with the increase of economic openness, the labor income share will decrease, while the current account will improve. To adjust the current account balance, we can adjust the monopoly degree of labor market, the ratio of raw material cost to wage, and adjust the income distribution structure. Secondly, based on the precautionary saving theory, we explain the huge difference in savings between North and South countries. We find that this difference is not only derived from the difference in the overall income level, but also closely related to the system factors such as social security system, financial market system, etc. This directly affects changes in the current account. Finally, from the perspective of labor market structure, the paper analyzes the differences of current account between developed countries. The model shows that in countries with negotiation mechanism, domestic core industries can be maintained and have a place in the international product market. Current account surplus; Countries that do not have consultation mechanisms may suffer from shrinking industries, unemployment and current-account deficits. In this paper, 19 countries with major global current account imbalances are divided into developed and developing countries. The data from 1990 to 2010 are analyzed by panel data regression. The regression results show that the relative labor cost, the real effective exchange rate, and the net inflow of direct investment have a significant impact on the current account of developed countries, and the relative labor cost has a great effect on the current account of developed countries. The return results in developing countries have been mixed: imbalances in the income distribution structure have been the main cause of current account imbalances in China and the Philippines, while changes in government-led economic policy have played a key role in changes in the current account in Thailand and Indonesia. Malaysia's current account is mainly affected by movements in the real effective exchange rate. The empirical results also show that in the process of economic globalization, the emerging countries have cheap labor to improve their competitiveness in the world economy, and the relative labor cost growth rate is positively related to the current account surplus. As emerging countries' relative comparative advantage in labour costs declines, policy guidance, relative prices and other factors will have a greater impact on the current account ratio. In terms of income distribution, the key to current global governance is to raise the level of global aggregate demand and to improve the structural distortions of global oversupply. This requires developed countries to change the declining trend of workers' income distribution, raise the proportion of income of middle and low income earners, and establish a coordination mechanism of labor relations. In emerging countries, emphasis should be placed on changing the pattern of complete competition in the labour market and structuring the oligopoly structure of the labour market. The government should strengthen the function of redistribution, raise the level of social security, stabilize the income expectation, and increase the proportion of consumption in the total demand.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F113.8;F224
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