广东省产业结构变动对经济波动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-26 17:49

【摘要】：广东省作为我国改革开放以来经济成长最为迅速、发展成果最为显著的地区之一，在各方面有着其独特的发展经验。在改革开放三十年之际，广东省又率先提出了“构建现代产业体系，加快发展方式转变，把解决当前问题与谋划长远发展结合起来，促进经济平稳、较快发展”的战略规划。一方面要转变发展方式，另一方面要保持经济平稳。由此可见，在调结构、促发展的同时，如何防止经济的过大波动已经是广东省新一轮经济发展中的重要议题。关于我国产业结构变动对宏观经济波动的影响作用，当前学术界存在不小的争议。其中，争论的焦点便是改革开放以来我国产业结构变动究竟对经济波动起到了促进作用还是抑制作用，以及关于这种影响作用的形成机制。基于此，本文将以广东省为研究对象，探讨其产业结构的变动对宏观经济波动产生的影响，以及这种影响作用的内在机制。以期为广东省进一步的经济改革提供有益的借鉴。首先，本文对广东省改革开放以来的产业结构变动过程及其特点、宏观经济的波动情况进行回顾与总结，定性地探讨两者之间可能存在的逻辑关系。接着，通过构建两个关于产业结构变动对经济波动影响的计量经济模型，从不同的角度研究其内在规律。一方面，将产业结构的变动作为一个整体变量，将其同资本冲击、劳动力供给冲击一起，纳入到一个简单的计量模型，分析考察期内广东省产业结构的变动对宏观经济波动的影响；另一方面，从三大产业的角度出发，，利用状态空间模型探讨三次产业波动对广东省经济波动的具体影响，据此分析广东省产业结构变动影响经济波动的内在机制。最后，基于全文研究，给出相应产业结构调整优化的对策建议。并总结全文，找到研究的薄弱环节以及可以改进之处，以期为该领域进一步的研究提供参考。通过本文研究论证，得到了以下四条主要结论：一是考察期内广东省产业结构的变动是一个产业结构升级的过程；二是广东省产业结构的变动给经济波动带来了抚平效应；三是抚平效应并非源自某些产业具有与经济波动周期相逆的波动特征，而是由于各产业本身波动特征的差异所造成；四是抚平效应内在机制的基础——三次产业波动特征的差异性，来源于各产业自身内部行业之间有着不同的波动协同特性。
[Abstract]:Guangdong Province, as one of the regions with the most rapid economic growth and the most remarkable achievements since the reform and opening up, has its unique development experience in various aspects. During the thirty years of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province took the lead in putting forward the strategic plan of "constructing the modern industrial system, speeding up the transformation of the mode of development, combining the solution of the current problems with the planning of long-term development, and promoting the steady and rapid development of the economy". On the one hand, we must change the mode of development, on the other hand, we must maintain a stable economy. It can be seen that while adjusting the structure and promoting development, how to prevent the excessive fluctuation of the economy has become an important issue in the new round of economic development in Guangdong Province. There is a great deal of controversy about the influence of industrial structure change on macroeconomic fluctuation. Among them, the focus of the debate is whether the industrial structure change has played a role in promoting or restraining economic fluctuations since the reform and opening up, and about the formation mechanism of this effect. Based on this, this paper will take Guangdong Province as the research object, discuss the influence of the change of its industrial structure on the macroeconomic fluctuation, and the internal mechanism of this kind of influence function. With a view to further economic reform in Guangdong Province to provide useful reference. First of all, this paper reviews and summarizes the changing process and characteristics of industrial structure and the fluctuation of macro-economy in Guangdong Province since the reform and opening up, and qualitatively discusses the possible logical relationship between them. Then, by constructing two econometric models about the effect of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation, the internal law is studied from different angles. On the one hand, take the change of industrial structure as a whole variable, and bring it into a simple econometric model together with capital shock and labor supply shock. This paper analyzes the influence of the change of industrial structure on the macroeconomic fluctuation in Guangdong Province during the period of investigation. On the other hand, from the point of view of the three major industries, this paper uses the state space model to discuss the specific influence of the three industrial fluctuations on the economic fluctuation in Guangdong Province, and then analyzes the internal mechanism of the industrial structure changes in Guangdong Province. Finally, based on the full-text research, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of industrial structure adjustment and optimization are given. The paper summarizes the weakness of the research and can be improved in order to provide a reference for further research in this field. Through the research and argumentation of this paper, the following four main conclusions are obtained: first, the change of Guangdong's industrial structure is a process of upgrading the industrial structure during the period of investigation; second, the change of Guangdong's industrial structure brings about the smoothing effect to the economic fluctuation. Third, the smoothing effect is caused not by the fluctuation characteristics of some industries that are contrary to the cycle of economic fluctuation, but by the differences of the fluctuation characteristics of each industry itself. The fourth is the foundation of the internal mechanism of smoothing effect, the difference of the characteristics of three industrial fluctuations, which comes from the different fluctuating and synergistic characteristics among the internal industries of each industry itself.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F279.2

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