中国金融发展与经济增长关系实证研究
发布时间：2018-11-26 19:30
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的经济增长与金融发展都取得了举世瞩目的成就,在金融系统不断发展、经济结构调整的关键时期,金融发展和经济增长之间是否存在着相互作用的关系?如果有,存在着什么样的依存关系?金融发展的各个部分分别是通过怎样的途径影响经济增长的?对经济增长的贡献又有多大?依托财政金融的发展是否又能够显著促进经济增长?本文依据1992年-2012年宏观经济金融数据从实证分析的角度对中国金融发展与经济增长的关系作以研究,以探寻上述问题。 文本通过分析归纳国内外文献及对我国金融发展和经济增长历程进行简单分析后,构造了适度的金融发展和经济增长的变量指标,主要从金融深化程度、金融发展结构和财政金融效率三个方面来考察金融与经济增长的相互关系。实证研究方法通过建立VAR模型,并在VAR模型的基础上对金融发展的各变量和经济增长变量进行Granger因果检验分析相互作用的关系,然后脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行动态效应分析相互作用的大小及正负性,最后进行协整检验,并建立向量误差修正模型得出各变量的参数估计值进一步分析出个变量间相互作用的情况。 通过实证研究得出了本文重要的两个结论：第一,总体来说我国金融与经济之间存在着相互促进的机制,经济增长能够显著促进金融深化水平的提升,但是对金融机构规模扩张促进作用的效果不显著,同时金融规模的扩张主要受到了金融深化水平的影响；金融发展对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为金融深化水平的提高能极大的促进经济增长,而金融机构规模扩张影响不显著；也即金融深化水平低的现状同时拖累了金融系统与经济体制改革的进一步发展。第二,经济与金融、财政间的关系是,经济与金融是同向发展的,两者间关系是相互促进相辅相成的关系;而经济与财政之间,经济增长能显著促进财政支出增加,而财政支出对经济增长的影响不显著,而脉冲响应函数显示出财政支出受到一个冲击时,经济增长指标会做出一个并不显著反应,也即通过增加财政支出远不如利用金融手段促进经济增长效果,在一定程度上过度增加财政支出反而可能对经济的增长不利。经过文章理论与实证的分析同时对结合我国实际情况对我国金融改革提出了几点意见：(一)强化金融市场法制建设,适度放宽金融管制,鼓励金融创新；(二)完善金融市场结构,大力发展直接融资市场；(三)尽量减少政府对经济的直接影响。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth and financial development have made remarkable achievements. In the crucial period of the continuous development of the financial system and the adjustment of economic structure, is there an interactive relationship between financial development and economic growth? If so, what are the dependencies? How does each part of financial development affect economic growth? What is the contribution to economic growth? Depending on the development of finance and finance, can economic growth be promoted significantly? Based on the macroeconomic and financial data from 1992 to 2012, this paper studies the relationship between China's financial development and economic growth from the perspective of empirical analysis, in order to explore the above problems. After analyzing and summarizing the domestic and foreign literature and simply analyzing the course of financial development and economic growth in China, the paper constructs a variable index of moderate financial development and economic growth, mainly from the degree of financial deepening. Financial development structure and financial efficiency to examine the relationship between finance and economic growth. Empirical research methods based on the VAR model and the VAR model, the relationship between the variables of financial development and the variables of economic growth is analyzed by Granger causality test. Then the pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic effect of the interaction and the positive and negative effects of the interaction are analyzed. Finally, the cointegration test is carried out. A vector error correction model is established to estimate the parameters of each variable and further analyze the interaction between the variables. Two important conclusions of this paper are obtained through empirical research. First, there is a mutual promotion mechanism between finance and economy, and economic growth can significantly promote the level of financial deepening. However, the effect of promoting the scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant, and the expansion of financial scale is mainly affected by the level of financial deepening. The promoting effect of financial development on economic growth is that the improvement of financial deepening level can greatly promote economic growth, but the impact of scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant; The low level of financial deepening also impedes the further development of financial system and economic system reform. Second, the relationship between economy and finance is that economy and finance develop in the same direction, and the relationship between them is mutually reinforcing and complementary. Between economy and finance, economic growth can significantly promote the increase of fiscal expenditure, but the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is not significant. The impulse response function shows that fiscal expenditure is affected by a shock. The index of economic growth will make an insignificant response, that is, increasing fiscal expenditure is far less effective than using financial means to promote economic growth. To some extent, excessive increase of fiscal expenditure may be detrimental to economic growth. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis of the article at the same time to combine with the actual situation of our financial reform put forward several suggestions: (1) strengthen the legal construction of financial markets, moderate relaxation of financial regulation, encourage financial innovation; (2) perfect the financial market structure and develop the direct financing market vigorously; (3) minimize the direct influence of the government on the economy.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124.1;F224
本文编号：2359420
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth and financial development have made remarkable achievements. In the crucial period of the continuous development of the financial system and the adjustment of economic structure, is there an interactive relationship between financial development and economic growth? If so, what are the dependencies? How does each part of financial development affect economic growth? What is the contribution to economic growth? Depending on the development of finance and finance, can economic growth be promoted significantly? Based on the macroeconomic and financial data from 1992 to 2012, this paper studies the relationship between China's financial development and economic growth from the perspective of empirical analysis, in order to explore the above problems. After analyzing and summarizing the domestic and foreign literature and simply analyzing the course of financial development and economic growth in China, the paper constructs a variable index of moderate financial development and economic growth, mainly from the degree of financial deepening. Financial development structure and financial efficiency to examine the relationship between finance and economic growth. Empirical research methods based on the VAR model and the VAR model, the relationship between the variables of financial development and the variables of economic growth is analyzed by Granger causality test. Then the pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic effect of the interaction and the positive and negative effects of the interaction are analyzed. Finally, the cointegration test is carried out. A vector error correction model is established to estimate the parameters of each variable and further analyze the interaction between the variables. Two important conclusions of this paper are obtained through empirical research. First, there is a mutual promotion mechanism between finance and economy, and economic growth can significantly promote the level of financial deepening. However, the effect of promoting the scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant, and the expansion of financial scale is mainly affected by the level of financial deepening. The promoting effect of financial development on economic growth is that the improvement of financial deepening level can greatly promote economic growth, but the impact of scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant; The low level of financial deepening also impedes the further development of financial system and economic system reform. Second, the relationship between economy and finance is that economy and finance develop in the same direction, and the relationship between them is mutually reinforcing and complementary. Between economy and finance, economic growth can significantly promote the increase of fiscal expenditure, but the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is not significant. The impulse response function shows that fiscal expenditure is affected by a shock. The index of economic growth will make an insignificant response, that is, increasing fiscal expenditure is far less effective than using financial means to promote economic growth. To some extent, excessive increase of fiscal expenditure may be detrimental to economic growth. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis of the article at the same time to combine with the actual situation of our financial reform put forward several suggestions: (1) strengthen the legal construction of financial markets, moderate relaxation of financial regulation, encourage financial innovation; (2) perfect the financial market structure and develop the direct financing market vigorously; (3) minimize the direct influence of the government on the economy.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124.1;F224
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相关期刊论文 前4条
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