“新常态”下的中国宏观调控

发布时间：2018-12-11 09:04

【摘要】：生产成本上升、技术进步方式变化、投资收益率下降、出口导向型增长不可持续,这几个因素使得中国经济进入了一个"新常态"。这个新常态的表现就是经济增长率下降、"滞胀"隐患出现、就业压力减小、消费占比提高、产业结构从劳动密集型向资金密集型和知识密集型转换,以及对自主研发的需求增加。在"新常态"下,我国应该适度降低经济增长目标,深化改革,加快产业结构调整和自主创新,实行供给和需求双扩张的政策组合,在需求管理方面,实行货币稳健或小量紧缩、财政扩张的政策组合。就目前而言,我们不建议采取大规模的扩张性政策,而是建议采取以供给管理为主、需求管理为辅的定向"微刺激"政策体系,既保证经济增长和就业,又尽可能促进结构调整。供给管理应以改革为主;需求管理应以财政政策为主,主要体现政府的产业政策、区域经济目标等,货币政策以定向降准为主,在需求管理中起到辅助作用。
[Abstract]:Rising production costs, changing technological advances, falling investment yields and unsustainable export-led growth have brought China's economy into a "new normal". The performance of this new normal is the decline of economic growth rate, the emergence of hidden dangers of "stagflation", the reduction of employment pressure, the increase in the proportion of consumption, and the transformation of industrial structure from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive. And the demand for independent research and development increased. Under the "new normal", China should appropriately reduce its economic growth targets, deepen reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, implement a policy mix of supply and demand expansion, and implement demand management. A combination of prudent or modest monetary tightening and fiscal expansion. For the time being, we do not recommend a large-scale expansionary policy, but rather a targeted "micro-stimulus" policy system based on supply management, supplemented by demand management, that guarantees economic growth and employment. And to promote structural adjustment as much as possible. Supply management should focus on reform, demand management should be based on fiscal policy, mainly reflect the government's industrial policy, regional economic objectives, and monetary policy should be oriented to lower the standard, which plays an auxiliary role in demand management.
【作者单位】：北京大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124

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