内蒙古居民消费价格指数波动的实证研究
发布时间：2018-12-14 15:11
【摘要】：物价通常被认为是生产价格，生产价格一般是平均生产成本和社会平均利润共同组成的，价值的转化形式。物价稳定和就业充分及GDP增长往往是最重要的社会经济目标。衡量物价有多个指标，最常见的就是居民消费价格指数，也就是我们常说的CPI，，这一指数也是观察通货膨胀水平的一个重要指标，并非是百姓生活中所感受的那种物价。如果物价指数持续增长，就表示有一定的通货膨胀，影响经济的发展，导致财政风险，造成经济的不景气。如果消费者物价指数小幅度提升或降低，则表明物价较合理稳定，宏观经济运行良好。消费者物价指数是世界各国普遍认可的一种指数，它可以用于分析市场价格的基本情况，是政府制定经济政策的重要依据。物价问题无疑是一个涉及民生的敏感问题，不仅对社会中百姓生活水平有直接的影响，还对整个经济的发展起到根本性的作用，经济的稳定对社会的稳定有很大的影响作用，虽然CPI是一个滞后性的数据，但它的作用不容小视，通常它是政府货币政策和市场经济活动的一个重要参考指标。 本文中着重从CPI编制范围、结构、如何反映物价情况来说明，并且分析指数的变动与通货膨胀的关系，解释说明为什么百姓对物价的感觉与统计局发布的统计数据不相符。基于内蒙古历年数据，利用VAR模型、脉冲响应、方差分解来分析内蒙古能源发展对内蒙古经济和物价的影响及根据影响内蒙古物价的主要因素提出相关政策建议。再对内蒙古CPI季度数据作时间序列模型分析，再进行预测。
[Abstract]:The price is usually considered as the production price, and the production price is generally composed of the average production cost and the social average profit, and the transformation form of the value. Price stability and full employment and GDP growth are often the most important socio-economic goals. The most common measure of price is the consumer price index, which we often call CPI, which is also an important index to observe the level of inflation. It is not the kind of price that people feel in their daily life. If the price index continues to increase, it means that there is certain inflation, affecting the development of the economy, leading to financial risks, resulting in economic depression. If the consumer price index increases or decreases by a small margin, it indicates that prices are reasonably stable and the macro economy is running well. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely accepted index in the world. It can be used to analyze the basic situation of the market price and is an important basis for the government to make economic policies. The price issue is undoubtedly a sensitive issue involving the people's livelihood. It not only has a direct impact on the standard of living of the people in society, but also plays a fundamental role in the development of the whole economy. Economic stability has a great impact on social stability. Although CPI is a lagging data, its function is not to be underestimated, usually it is an important reference index of government monetary policy and market economy activity. This paper focuses on the scope, structure and how to reflect the price situation of CPI, and analyzes the relationship between the change of index and inflation, explains why the people's perception of price does not accord with the statistical data released by the Bureau of Statistics. Based on the data of Inner Mongolia over the years, VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence of Inner Mongolia energy development on Inner Mongolia economy and price, and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward according to the main factors that affect the price of Inner Mongolia. Then the CPI quarterly data of Inner Mongolia were analyzed by time series model, and then predicted.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126;F726
[Abstract]:The price is usually considered as the production price, and the production price is generally composed of the average production cost and the social average profit, and the transformation form of the value. Price stability and full employment and GDP growth are often the most important socio-economic goals. The most common measure of price is the consumer price index, which we often call CPI, which is also an important index to observe the level of inflation. It is not the kind of price that people feel in their daily life. If the price index continues to increase, it means that there is certain inflation, affecting the development of the economy, leading to financial risks, resulting in economic depression. If the consumer price index increases or decreases by a small margin, it indicates that prices are reasonably stable and the macro economy is running well. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely accepted index in the world. It can be used to analyze the basic situation of the market price and is an important basis for the government to make economic policies. The price issue is undoubtedly a sensitive issue involving the people's livelihood. It not only has a direct impact on the standard of living of the people in society, but also plays a fundamental role in the development of the whole economy. Economic stability has a great impact on social stability. Although CPI is a lagging data, its function is not to be underestimated, usually it is an important reference index of government monetary policy and market economy activity. This paper focuses on the scope, structure and how to reflect the price situation of CPI, and analyzes the relationship between the change of index and inflation, explains why the people's perception of price does not accord with the statistical data released by the Bureau of Statistics. Based on the data of Inner Mongolia over the years, VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence of Inner Mongolia energy development on Inner Mongolia economy and price, and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward according to the main factors that affect the price of Inner Mongolia. Then the CPI quarterly data of Inner Mongolia were analyzed by time series model, and then predicted.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126;F726
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 徐强;;CPI的理论框架:固定篮子指数还是生活费用指数?[J];财经问题研究;2006年04期
2 许Z赯
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