我国城镇化发展与城乡居民消费关系研究
发布时间：2018-12-30 12:09
【摘要】：内外需失衡一直是我国经济发展面临的突出问题,2008年全球金融危机的爆发,外需的下降使得这一问题愈显严峻。对于一个有着近14亿人口的大国来说,总需求不可能依靠国外市场来解决,扩大国内的消费需求理应作为一项长期的经济国策。然而如何刺激居民消费,拉动国民经济的增长,是如今国家面临的重要问题。城镇化发展作为经济发展的助推器,已越来越成为政府和社会理论界关注的重点,关于城镇化发展和居民消费之间的关系也引起了理论界的广泛关注。21世纪以来,我国城镇化发展突飞猛进,城镇化所带来的一系列经济效应也逐渐体现出来。本文试图对我国城镇化发展和居民消费增长的相互关系进行深入研究,探索提高居民消费水平的新路径。 本文在总结已有文献研究的基础上,首先对我国城镇化的发展和城乡居民消费之间的关系做了理论分析。一方面,城镇化发展带来的收入效应可以促进居民消费的增长。其带来的消费“示范效应”,可以引发居民消费方式和消费习惯发生改变,从而带动消费的增长。城镇化发展还能增强居民的消费信心。另一方面,城镇基础实施的完善,生活环境的舒适,消费的便捷,这些都是吸引农村居民“进城”的必要条件,随着居民消费能力的提高,城镇的吸引力也随之增强。然而,城镇较高的生活成本也一定程度上阻碍了“农民进城”；其次对我国城镇化发展和城乡居民消费现状进行了梳理,我国目前尚处在城镇化发展的加速期,城镇化水平和发达国家相比还有一定距离,还有很大的发展空间。居民消费方面,我国目前的消费率还比较低,经过对我国城乡居民消费结构的深入分析,得出结论,我国居民整体在“住行学”方面的消费支出比重上涨缓慢,尤其是农村地区,“住行学”消费更为落后,这方面的消费性投资不足是一项重要的原因。 在理论研究的基础上文章通过建立VAR模型,探讨我国城镇化发展和居民消费增长之间的关系,研究结果表明,城镇化发展对城乡居民消费增长有一定的促进作用,经比较发现,长期来看,城镇化发展和农村居民消费增长之间存在显著的相互促进关系。最后结合理论分析和实证研究的结果,文章有针对性地提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:The imbalance of internal and external demand has always been a prominent problem in China's economic development. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the decline of external demand makes this problem more serious. For a large country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it is impossible to rely on the foreign market to solve the total demand. Expanding domestic consumption demand should be regarded as a long-term national economic policy. However, how to stimulate the consumption of residents and stimulate the growth of the national economy is an important issue facing the country today. As the booster of economic development, urbanization development has become the focus of attention of the government and social theorists. The relationship between urbanization development and residents' consumption has also aroused widespread concern in the theoretical circle since the 21st century. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are gradually reflected. This paper attempts to study the relationship between the development of urbanization and the growth of resident consumption in China, and explore a new way to improve the consumption level of residents. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper first makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. On the one hand, the income effect of urbanization development can promote the growth of resident consumption. The "demonstration effect" of consumption can lead to changes in consumption patterns and habits, thus driving the growth of consumption. The development of urbanization can also enhance the consumer confidence of residents. On the other hand, the perfection of urban infrastructure, the comfort of living environment and the convenience of consumption are all necessary conditions to attract rural residents to enter the city. With the improvement of residents' consumption ability, the attractiveness of cities and towns also increases. However, the high cost of living in cities and towns also hinders the "peasants entering the city" to some extent; Secondly, it combs the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country. At present, China is still in the accelerating period of urbanization development. Compared with developed countries, the level of urbanization still has a certain distance, and there is still a lot of room for development. In terms of residents' consumption, the current consumption rate in our country is still relatively low. Through an in-depth analysis of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption expenditure of the residents as a whole in "residential education" has risen slowly. Especially in rural areas, the consumption of "living and learning" is more backward, which is an important reason. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper discusses the relationship between urbanization development and resident consumption growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that urbanization development can promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents to a certain extent. In the long run, there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between the urbanization development and the consumption growth of rural residents. Finally, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F126.1
本文编号：2395564
[Abstract]:The imbalance of internal and external demand has always been a prominent problem in China's economic development. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the decline of external demand makes this problem more serious. For a large country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it is impossible to rely on the foreign market to solve the total demand. Expanding domestic consumption demand should be regarded as a long-term national economic policy. However, how to stimulate the consumption of residents and stimulate the growth of the national economy is an important issue facing the country today. As the booster of economic development, urbanization development has become the focus of attention of the government and social theorists. The relationship between urbanization development and residents' consumption has also aroused widespread concern in the theoretical circle since the 21st century. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are gradually reflected. This paper attempts to study the relationship between the development of urbanization and the growth of resident consumption in China, and explore a new way to improve the consumption level of residents. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper first makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. On the one hand, the income effect of urbanization development can promote the growth of resident consumption. The "demonstration effect" of consumption can lead to changes in consumption patterns and habits, thus driving the growth of consumption. The development of urbanization can also enhance the consumer confidence of residents. On the other hand, the perfection of urban infrastructure, the comfort of living environment and the convenience of consumption are all necessary conditions to attract rural residents to enter the city. With the improvement of residents' consumption ability, the attractiveness of cities and towns also increases. However, the high cost of living in cities and towns also hinders the "peasants entering the city" to some extent; Secondly, it combs the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country. At present, China is still in the accelerating period of urbanization development. Compared with developed countries, the level of urbanization still has a certain distance, and there is still a lot of room for development. In terms of residents' consumption, the current consumption rate in our country is still relatively low. Through an in-depth analysis of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption expenditure of the residents as a whole in "residential education" has risen slowly. Especially in rural areas, the consumption of "living and learning" is more backward, which is an important reason. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper discusses the relationship between urbanization development and resident consumption growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that urbanization development can promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents to a certain extent. In the long run, there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between the urbanization development and the consumption growth of rural residents. Finally, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F126.1
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 范剑平,向书坚;我国城乡人口二元社会结构对居民消费率的影响[J];管理世界;1999年05期
2 辜胜阻;易善策;郑凌云;;基于农民工特征的工业化与城镇化协调发展研究[J];人口研究;2006年05期
3 温铁军;温厉;;中国的“城镇化”与发展中国家城市化的教训[J];中国软科学;2007年07期
4 辜胜阻;易善策;李华;;中国特色城镇化道路研究[J];中国人口.资源与环境;2009年01期
5 蔡思复;城市化是克服市场需求不足的根本途径[J];中南财经大学学报;1999年05期
，本文编号：2395564
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/zhongguojingjilunwen/2395564.html
