中国跨越中等收入陷阱的路径研究

发布时间：2019-01-10 17:58

【摘要】：“中等收入陷阱”一词始见于2007年世界银行发布的《东亚复兴：经济增长的观点》报告中。此后,这一概念被经济学界广泛讨论,并被用来类比拉美和一些亚洲经济体所面临的困境,也常被作为参照来判断中国经济的前景。2010年,中国人均GDP突破4000美元,正式进入中等收入国家行列,中国能否顺利从中等收入阶段飞跃到高收入阶段,越来越受到各界的关注。历史经验告诉我们,中等收入阶段是一国经济发展的关键时期,处理不好即有可能落入中等收入陷阱之中。本文通过考察落入陷阱的典型案例国家(巴西、阿根廷)在中等收入阶段的经济特征,试图找出落入中等收入陷阱的本质原因,研究结果表明,导致其经济长期徘徊甚至倒退的原因不仅仅是外部因素(外资)的影响,更重要的是国内自身资本形成能力的低下(或者说投资效率低下)。在此基础上,本文考察了中国改革开放以来的投资效率,发现其投资效率与典型陷阱国家存在相似性,说明中国有落入中等收入陷阱的可能性。但是,目前中国经济并没有落入陷阱的迹象,这也说明中国经济必然存在特殊之处,正是这一特殊之处维持了中国经济的稳定增长。而本文在对中国与典型陷阱国家比较中发现,高储蓄推动了中国经济的稳定增长,在这一过程中储蓄——投资转化机制是关键。由此也引出了本文的核心,也是中国的特殊之处——国有银行体制安排。在这一体制安排下,政府一方面通过各种方式把居民的金融剩余聚集在国有银行的账户上,另一方面,通过加强对国有银行信贷行为的控制实现对金融资源的集中配置,以确保产出的平稳增长。这一绝妙的体制安排推动了改革开放以来中国经济的持续稳定增长,但其中也存在一定的隐患。本文在研究过程中就发现了在这一体制安排下可能会导致中国落入中等收入陷阱的两种情况。针对中国未来可能出现的问题,本文认为,提高政府资金配置效率和降低不良资产率是短期内中国要采取的对策,政府在投资领域的转型和利率市场化改革是长期内中国要遵循的路径。
[Abstract]:The term "middle-income trap" began in the 2007 World Bank report "East Asia Renaissance: a View of Economic growth." Since then, the concept has been widely discussed in economists and used as an analogy to the difficulties faced by Latin America and some Asian economies, and is often used as a reference to judge the prospects of China's economy. In 2010, China's per capita GDP exceeded $4000. Whether China can leapfrog from middle income stage to high income stage is paid more and more attention to. Historical experience tells us that the middle income stage is the key period of a country's economic development, if it is not handled properly, it may fall into the middle income trap. This paper attempts to find out the essential reasons of falling into the middle income trap by examining the economic characteristics of the typical case countries (Brazil, Argentina) in the middle income stage. It is not only the influence of external factors, but also the inefficiency of domestic capital formation that causes its economy to linger or even regress for a long time. On this basis, this paper examines the investment efficiency of China since the reform and opening up, and finds that there are similarities between the investment efficiency and the typical trap countries, indicating that China has the possibility of falling into the middle-income trap. However, there is no sign of China's economy falling into a trap at present, which also indicates that there must be something special about the Chinese economy, which has maintained the steady growth of the Chinese economy. By comparing China with typical trap countries, this paper finds that high savings promote the steady growth of Chinese economy, and the mechanism of saving- investment transformation is the key in this process. This also leads to the core of this paper, and is a special place in China-state-owned banking system arrangements. Under this institutional arrangement, on the one hand, the government aggregates the residents' financial surplus in the accounts of state-owned banks in various ways; on the other hand, by strengthening the control over the credit behavior of state-owned banks, it realizes the centralized allocation of financial resources. To ensure a steady increase in output. This wonderful institutional arrangement has promoted the sustained and steady growth of China's economy since the reform and opening up, but there are also some hidden dangers. In the course of this study, we find two situations that may lead China to fall into the middle income trap under this institutional arrangement. In view of the possible future problems in China, this paper argues that improving the efficiency of government funds allocation and reducing the rate of non-performing assets are the countermeasures to be taken by China in the short term. The transformation of government investment and the reform of interest rate marketization are the long-term path that China should follow.
【学位授予单位】：山西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.7

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