云南省产业结构与东盟贸易结构的联动性研究
发布时间：2019-01-20 11:19
【摘要】：对外贸易结构变动与产业结构变动是区域经济增长过程中的两大经济现象,二者能否协调发展影响着区域经济增长的质量。东盟一直以来是云南省最大的贸易伙伴,云南省对东盟进出口的贸易结构与云南省的产业结构是否协调直接关系到云南省未来经济的发展,但近年来云南省产业发展一直不见起色,对东盟的贸易额甚至出现了负增长的局面。基于以上背景,本文重点研究云南省对东盟贸易结构与其产业结构各自变动情况,以及两者之间的联动性,目的在于为有关部门调整优化产业结构和东盟贸易结构提供决策依据。 本文在梳理对外贸易理论、产业结构理论、对外贸易结构与产业结构相互作用机理理论的基础上,以对外贸易结构变动与产业结构变动为研究视角,协同运用描述统计分析和计量经济模型构建等多种分析工具,对云南省对东盟贸易结构与产业结构之间的关系及联动性进行研究。 通过研究得出以下结论：云南省产业结构和东盟进口结构和出口结构之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,从产业结构和东盟进口结构和出口结构的Granger因果关系看,产业结构是对东盟出口结构变化的原因,说明产业结构仍然是对外贸易发展的主动力,同时云南省对东盟进口结构变化是产业结构变化的原因,说明进口的增长影响了产业结构的发展。从脉冲分析和方差分解的结果来看,云南省进口商品的结构变动通常滞后错位于产业结构的发展变动,云南省产业结构对云南省对东盟进口结构开始时是有负的影响作用；而出口结构对产业结构的正影响作用比较明显,且产业结构对出口结构也是呈现出正向的影响作用,说明二者是相互促进,协同发展的。 在归纳和凝练基本结论的基础上,本文提出了如下的路径选择：云南省要想实现产业结构与对东盟贸易结构互动升级,实现经济跨越式发展,就必须改变当前双方仅依靠自然资源和劳动力的简单的贸易模式,提升为依赖技术发展的创新型的动态比较优势,提高产品在国际市场上的竞争优势,实现落后地区跨越式发展的战略。文章提出了将云南作为东部发达地区和东盟地区贸易的通道,通过进口东部和中部发达地区的技术密集型产品,出口东盟国家,同时大力发展自身产业,形成自身产业优势,在吸收外来资本和技术的过程中,达到形成自身产业结构和东盟贸易结构的互动升级。
[Abstract]:The structural change of foreign trade and the change of industrial structure are two major economic phenomena in the process of regional economic growth. Whether the two can develop harmoniously affects the quality of regional economic growth. ASEAN has always been the largest trading partner in Yunnan Province. Whether the trade structure between Yunnan's imports and exports to ASEAN and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province is coordinated or not is directly related to the future economic development of Yunnan Province. However, the industrial development of Yunnan Province has not improved in recent years, and the trade volume with ASEAN has even shown negative growth. Based on the above background, this paper focuses on the changes of trade structure and industrial structure of ASEAN in Yunnan Province, as well as the linkage between them. The purpose is to provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to adjust and optimize industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure. On the basis of combing the theory of foreign trade, the theory of industrial structure and the theory of interaction mechanism between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, this paper takes the change of foreign trade structure and industrial structure as the research angle. This paper studies the relationship and linkage between ASEAN trade structure and industrial structure in Yunnan Province by means of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model construction. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure of Yunnan Province and the import structure and export structure of ASEAN. The Granger causality between the industrial structure and the ASEAN import structure and export structure is analyzed. The industrial structure is the reason for the change of the export structure to ASEAN, which shows that the industrial structure is still the main driving force for the development of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the change in the import structure of Yunnan Province to ASEAN is the reason for the change of the industrial structure. This shows that the growth of imports has affected the development of the industrial structure. From the results of pulse analysis and variance decomposition, the structural changes of Yunnan import commodities usually lag behind the development changes of industrial structure, and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has a negative effect on ASEAN import structure at the beginning. The positive effect of the export structure on the industrial structure is obvious, and the industrial structure has a positive effect on the export structure, indicating that the two promote each other and develop in a coordinated manner. On the basis of summing up and condensing the basic conclusions, this paper puts forward the following path choices: Yunnan Province wants to realize the interactive upgrading of industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. We must change the current simple trade model in which both sides rely only on natural resources and labor, upgrade it to an innovative and dynamic comparative advantage that relies on technological development, and enhance the competitive advantage of products in the international market. The strategy of realizing the leapfrog development of backward areas. This paper proposes that Yunnan should be used as a trade channel between the eastern developed regions and the ASEAN regions. By importing technology-intensive products from the eastern and central developed regions, Yunnan should be exported to ASEAN countries, and at the same time, it should vigorously develop its own industries and form its own industrial advantages. In the process of absorbing foreign capital and technology, the interactive upgrading of the industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure has been achieved.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8
本文编号：2411995
[Abstract]:The structural change of foreign trade and the change of industrial structure are two major economic phenomena in the process of regional economic growth. Whether the two can develop harmoniously affects the quality of regional economic growth. ASEAN has always been the largest trading partner in Yunnan Province. Whether the trade structure between Yunnan's imports and exports to ASEAN and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province is coordinated or not is directly related to the future economic development of Yunnan Province. However, the industrial development of Yunnan Province has not improved in recent years, and the trade volume with ASEAN has even shown negative growth. Based on the above background, this paper focuses on the changes of trade structure and industrial structure of ASEAN in Yunnan Province, as well as the linkage between them. The purpose is to provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to adjust and optimize industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure. On the basis of combing the theory of foreign trade, the theory of industrial structure and the theory of interaction mechanism between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, this paper takes the change of foreign trade structure and industrial structure as the research angle. This paper studies the relationship and linkage between ASEAN trade structure and industrial structure in Yunnan Province by means of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model construction. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure of Yunnan Province and the import structure and export structure of ASEAN. The Granger causality between the industrial structure and the ASEAN import structure and export structure is analyzed. The industrial structure is the reason for the change of the export structure to ASEAN, which shows that the industrial structure is still the main driving force for the development of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the change in the import structure of Yunnan Province to ASEAN is the reason for the change of the industrial structure. This shows that the growth of imports has affected the development of the industrial structure. From the results of pulse analysis and variance decomposition, the structural changes of Yunnan import commodities usually lag behind the development changes of industrial structure, and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has a negative effect on ASEAN import structure at the beginning. The positive effect of the export structure on the industrial structure is obvious, and the industrial structure has a positive effect on the export structure, indicating that the two promote each other and develop in a coordinated manner. On the basis of summing up and condensing the basic conclusions, this paper puts forward the following path choices: Yunnan Province wants to realize the interactive upgrading of industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. We must change the current simple trade model in which both sides rely only on natural resources and labor, upgrade it to an innovative and dynamic comparative advantage that relies on technological development, and enhance the competitive advantage of products in the international market. The strategy of realizing the leapfrog development of backward areas. This paper proposes that Yunnan should be used as a trade channel between the eastern developed regions and the ASEAN regions. By importing technology-intensive products from the eastern and central developed regions, Yunnan should be exported to ASEAN countries, and at the same time, it should vigorously develop its own industries and form its own industrial advantages. In the process of absorbing foreign capital and technology, the interactive upgrading of the industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure has been achieved.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8
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