基于碳排放量的河北省产业结构优化研究

发布时间：2019-01-27 14:31

【摘要】：随着碳排放的持续增长及其对全球生态环境造成的巨大威胁，如何降低碳排放已成为世界各国关心的焦点所在。本文采用不同方法探讨河北省碳排放量与主要影响因素间的关系，运用指数分解法分析河北省不同年度各产业产值及单位产值碳排放量变动对碳排放总量的影响，采用灰色关联方法综合评价工业内各行业的碳排放强度，找出河北省碳排放重点监控的地区，根据研究结果提出河北省产业结构调整与优化策略。首先，本文重点阐述河北省人口与社会经济发展状况，根据河北省能源消耗结构及能源消耗总量，计算出各种能源消耗量；根据各种能源消费总量及各种能源的碳排放系数，计算各种能源的碳排放量及总的碳排放量。采用简单相关分析法、偏相关分析法及神经网络分析法，探讨碳排放量与主要影响因素间的关系。建立碳排放量主要影响因素与时间的回归方程，根据碳排放量主要影响因素的预测值对碳排放量进行预测。其次，运用指数分解法探讨河北省不同年度各产业产值及单位产值碳排放量变动对碳排放总量的影响，分析产业结构变动及不同产业单位产值碳排放量变动对总的单位产值碳排放量的影响；为了反映不同产业在碳排放增量及增速所起到作用不同，创新地计算不同产业碳排放增量分担率和增速拉动率。再次，在规模以上工业内部，为了甄选需要调整和发展的行业，选择单位职工人数碳排放量、单位总产值碳排放量和单位利润碳排放量三个碳排放强度指标，采用熵值法确定三个指标权重。采用灰色关联方法计算工业内各行业的碳排放强度平均关联系数，以此作为工业内各行业结构调整与优化依据。根据综合评价结果，确定需要调整的行业和应大力发展行业，，为工业内各行业结构调整提供思路。同时从河北省碳排放量的地区分布角度，分析各地区碳排放总量和碳排放强度，找出河北省碳排放重点监控的地区应是唐山市、邯郸市、张家口市和石家庄市。最后，通过分析三次产业的碳排放总量及三次产业碳排放强度，确定积极发展第一产业，尽量压缩第二产业，大力发展第三产业的三次产业优化策略。在第一产业方面，提出河北省应加快发展区域特色农业、绿色农业和创汇农业，努力提高专业化生产程度。同时大力林业,提高森林碳汇的储藏量。河北省第二产业结构优化应重点对7个行业进行，在考虑其他因素的同时进行产业调整。河北省在第三产业结构优化方面，从低碳角度应积极发展文化产业，全力发展旅游产业。同时提出建立碳交易市场，努力提高矿产资源回收率，建设循环经济工业园区的机制策略。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of carbon emissions and the great threat to the global ecological environment, how to reduce carbon emissions has become the focus of attention in the world. This paper discusses the relationship between carbon emissions and main influencing factors in Hebei Province by using different methods, and analyzes the effects of carbon emissions change on the total carbon emissions in different years of Hebei Province by using the exponential decomposition method, and the change of carbon emissions per unit output value and output value in different years in Hebei Province. The grey correlation method is used to evaluate the carbon emission intensity of various industries in the industry, and the key monitoring areas of carbon emissions in Hebei Province are found out. Based on the research results, the adjustment and optimization strategies of industrial structure in Hebei Province are put forward. First of all, this paper focuses on the population and socio-economic development of Hebei Province, according to the structure of energy consumption in Hebei Province and the total amount of energy consumption, calculate all kinds of energy consumption; According to the total amount of energy consumption and the carbon emission coefficient of all kinds of energy, the carbon emissions and the total carbon emissions of all kinds of energy sources are calculated. Simple correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and neural network analysis were used to study the relationship between carbon emissions and main influencing factors. The regression equation between the main influencing factors and the time of carbon emissions was established, and the carbon emissions were predicted according to the predicted values of the main influencing factors of carbon emissions. Secondly, using the method of exponential decomposition, the paper discusses the influence of the change of carbon emissions per industry and unit output value on the total amount of carbon emissions in Hebei Province in different years. The influence of the change of industrial structure and carbon emissions per unit output value of different industries on the total carbon emissions per unit output value is analyzed. In order to reflect the different effects of different industries on the increase and growth of carbon emissions, the incremental contribution rate and the growth rate of carbon emissions of different industries are calculated innovatively. Thirdly, in order to select the industries that need to be adjusted and developed, in order to select the industries above the scale, we choose three carbon emission intensity indicators: the number of carbon emissions per employee, the carbon emissions per unit gross product and the carbon emissions per unit profit. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of three indexes. The grey correlation method is used to calculate the average correlation coefficient of carbon emission intensity in various industries, which can be used as the basis for the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. According to the results of comprehensive evaluation, it is necessary to determine the industries that need to be adjusted and to develop the industries so as to provide ideas for the structural adjustment of various industries in the industry. At the same time, from the perspective of regional distribution of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the total amount of carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions in various regions are analyzed, and the key monitoring areas of carbon emissions in Hebei Province should be Tangshan City, Handan City, Zhangjiakou City and Shijiazhuang City. Finally, through the analysis of the total amount of carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions of the third industry, the paper determines the strategy of actively developing the primary industry, reducing the secondary industry as much as possible, and vigorously developing the tertiary industry. In the aspect of primary industry, it is suggested that Hebei Province should speed up the development of regional characteristic agriculture, green agriculture and foreign exchange earning agriculture, and strive to improve the degree of specialized production. At the same time, vigorously forestry, improve forest carbon storage. The optimization of the secondary industry structure in Hebei Province should focus on the seven industries and adjust the industry while considering other factors. In the aspect of optimizing the tertiary industry structure, Hebei Province should actively develop cultural industry and tourism industry from the perspective of low carbon. At the same time, the mechanism strategy of establishing carbon trading market, improving the recovery rate of mineral resources and constructing circular economy industrial park is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

【参考文献】