铜川市金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2019-02-13 16:17

【摘要】：对于经济增长的机制，学者们较为一致的观点是：主要是通过提高要素利用率和增加要素投入这两个渠道来实现的。金融是现代经济的基础和核心，是社会主义市场经济体系的重要组成部分，已成为经济发展中的一个战略性要素。国内外关于金融发展与经济增长关系的研究层出不穷，但主要侧重于宏观和中观层面上，对微观层面的研究甚少，但各个地区的经济基础、自然条件、政策支持、社会和技术条件等资源禀赋存在一定差异，仅从宏观和中观层面进行研究，不能全面准确地反映金融发展与经济增长的关系。本文以典型的资源枯竭型转型试点城市和全国城市综合竞争力排名第七的铜川市为研究对象，从微观层面对这一问题进行实证分析。本文在已有研究和相关金融发展、经济增长理论的基础上，因地制宜地地构造了衡量铜川市金融发展和经济增长的指标体系，以铜川市1990年——2012年的相关数据为样本，以加入金融因素的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数为模型，运用Eviews6.0对其之间的关系进行了静态和动态分析。在对数据进行平稳性检验之后，本文采用协整分析和向量误差修正模型对变量进行了长短期关系检验，应用格兰杰因果关系检验的方法对变量进行了因果关系分析。在完成了静态分析之后，本文采用脉冲响应函数和变量方差分解的方法对模型中一个变量的冲击给其他变量带来的影响以及每个冲击对变量变化的贡献程度进行了动态分析。根据研究的结果可知：铜川市金融发展仅在长期与经济增长有相关关系，金融规模的扩张会促使经济增长，而金融效率的提高却会抑制经济增长，但短期的相关关系不显著。金融效率的提高不但不会促进经济增长反而会抑制其增长，这种异常的现象这可能是由于在铜川市金融机构存款余额高速增长的同时，贷款余额增长缓慢，还有很大的贷款空间没有被释放，并没有充分发挥金融对经济增长的促进作用。从整体看，铜川市金融规模和经济增长以及金融效率和经济增长之间都存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，且现阶段该市金融发展对经济增长的作用主要是通过金融效率来体现的，金融规模对经济增长的促进作用只有当经济发展到一定水平时才会显现出来，而经济增长对金融效率的影响仅体现在当期，对金融规模的影响时间较长。劳动力水平和投资水平也仅在长期对经济增长具有促进作用。从动态分析结果可以看出，金融规模变化的冲击最终会给经济增长带来正向的影响，，金融效率变化的冲击最终会给其带来负向的影响，并且二者对经济增长的作用力度都很大，而经济增长变化的冲击给金融规模和金融效率会带来一负一正的影响，且作用力度都较小，说明并为充分发挥经济增长对金融发展的带动作用。投资水平变化的冲击最终会给经济增长带来正向的影响，而劳动力水平变化的冲击在给经济增长带来先正后负来回震荡的影响之后，最终这种作用会在长期内抵消掉。从整个系统的角度出发，对于经济增长而言，金融效率变化的冲击对经济增长的影响要高于金融规模变化冲击对其的影响；对于金融规模而言，劳动力水平波动冲击对其影响最大；对于金融效率而言，金融规模波动冲击对其影响最大。从动态影响可以看出，金融发展对经济增长无论在长期还是短期对经济增长都是有影响的，而静态短期分析中，这种效果却不显著，说明实际情况并没有达到应有的水平。最后本文根据研究结论对该市金融和经济协调发展提出了合理的建议。
[Abstract]:For the mechanism of economic growth, the more consistent point of view of the scholars is that it is mainly realized through the improvement of the factor utilization rate and the addition of the factors into the two channels. Finance is the foundation and core of the modern economy, is an important part of the socialist market economy system, and has become a strategic element in the economic development. The research on the relationship between financial development and economic growth at home and abroad, but mainly on the level of macro and medium, has little research on the micro-level, but there are some differences in the economic base, natural conditions, policy support, social and technical conditions of various regions, The relationship between financial development and economic growth can not be reflected in a comprehensive and accurate way. This paper makes an empirical analysis of this problem from the micro-level with the typical resource-exhausted transformation pilot cities and the seventh Tongchuan city, which is the seventh of the national urban comprehensive competitiveness. On the basis of the existing research and related financial development and economic growth theory, the index system to measure the financial development and economic growth of the city of Tongchuan is constructed in accordance with the local conditions, taking the relevant data of Tongchuan City from 1990 to 2012 as the sample. In this paper, the static and dynamic division of the relationship between Eviews6.0 and Eviews6.0 is used to model the production function of the Cobb-Douglas production function with financial factors. In this paper, after the stationarity test of the data, this paper makes a long-term relationship test on the variable by the association analysis and the vector error correction model, and applies the method of the Granger causality test to the variable. In this paper, after the static analysis is completed, the effect of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition of the variable on the other variables and the contribution of each impact to the variation of the variable are described in this paper. According to the results of the study, the financial development of Tongchuan City is related to the economic growth in the long term, and the expansion of the financial scale will drive the growth of the economy, while the increase of the financial efficiency will restrain the growth of the economy, but the related relation in the short term Not significant. The increase in financial efficiency will not only promote economic growth but also inhibit its growth, which may be due to the slow growth in the deposit balance of the financial institutions in the city of Tongchuan, the slow growth of the loan balance, and the lack of a large loan space. is released and does not give full play to the growth of finance to the economy In the whole, there is a two-way Granger causality between the financial scale and economic growth of Tongchuan, as well as the financial efficiency and economic growth, and the current role of the city's financial development on economic growth is mainly through the financial efficiency The effect of the financial scale on the economic growth is only when the economy develops to a certain level, and the effect of economic growth on the financial efficiency is only reflected in the period when the economy is affected by the financial scale The labour level and the level of investment also have a long-term impact on economic growth It can be seen from the results of the dynamic analysis that the impact of the change of financial size will eventually lead to a positive impact on economic growth, and the impact of the change in financial efficiency will eventually bring negative influence to the economic growth, and the effect of both on economic growth The impact of economic growth changes on the financial scale and financial efficiency will have a negative positive effect, and the effect is small, which will explain and give full play to the economic growth's belt to the financial development The impact of the change in the level of investment will ultimately have a positive impact on economic growth, and the impact of the change in the level of the labour force will be in the long run after the impact of a positive and negative impact on economic growth Canceling. From the point of view of the whole system, the impact of the change in financial efficiency on economic growth is higher than that of the change of financial scale for economic growth; for the financial scale, the impact of the fluctuation of the labor level on the economic growth is the biggest; for the financial efficiency in that case of the rate, the impact of the financial scale on its shadow From the dynamic effect it can be seen that financial development has an impact on economic growth both in the long term and in the short term, while in the static and short-term analysis, this effect is not significant, and the actual situation is not achieved. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the development of the financial and economic development of the city
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

【参考文献】