日本国债规模及其对经济影响的研究
发布时间：2019-02-14 07:53
【摘要】：日本泡沫经济的崩溃、2008年的世界经济危机和2011年3月份的东日本大地震等带来了日本长达20年的经济不景气。为了刺激经济，日本政府采取了一系列扩张性财政政策，同时引起了日本国债规模越积越多。日本经济也陷入了“经济不景气-发行国债-国债负担过重-经济不景气”的怪圈。研究日本国债规模问题，一方面使我们正确认识日本国债的现状、原因及影响；另一方面通过日本国债规模的经验教训学习，对我国的国债发行有所借鉴，使我国国债规模处于有利于宏观经济运行的状态下。 本文从日本国债规模的演变进程和国债规模现状出发，对日本国债规模现状的诱因进行系统剖析；根据1977年到2012年的国债规模，采用灰色系统法预测出2013年、2014年、2015年的日本国债规模；采用定量和定性相结合的方法，分析了日本国债对日本经济增长、消费、储蓄、投资的影响，并对为何产生这种影响做出简要分析。通过以上研究，本文取得了一些成果，，主要有：（1）利用灰色预测法预测了日本国债规模，2013年为809万亿日元、2014年为865万亿日元、2015年为923万亿日元；（2）20世纪90年代以前，日本国债与日本经济的相关性比较强，且先正相关后负相关；90年代以后，两者的相关性很弱。
[Abstract]:The collapse of Japan's bubble economy, the 2008 world economic crisis and the March 2011 East Japan earthquake have led to a 20-year recession in Japan. To stimulate the economy, the Japanese government has adopted a series of expansionary fiscal policies, which has led to the accumulation of more and more Japanese government bonds. Japan's economy has also fallen into a strange cycle of economic depression-issuance of government bonds-too much of a national debt burden-an economic downturn. On the one hand, the study of the scale of JGBs will help us understand the current situation, causes and effects of JGBs; On the other hand, by learning from the experience and lessons of the scale of Japanese national debt, we can draw lessons from the issuance of national debt in our country, and make the scale of national debt of our country be in the condition of favorable macroeconomic operation. Based on the evolution process of the scale of Japanese national debt and the present situation of the scale of Japanese national debt, this paper systematically analyzes the inducement of the present situation of the scale of Japanese national debt. According to the scale of national debt from 1977 to 2012, the scale of Japanese national debt in 2013, 2014 and 2015 is predicted by grey system method. By combining quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper analyzes the impact of Japanese government bonds on Japanese economic growth, consumption, savings and investment, and makes a brief analysis of why such an impact is produced. Through the above research, this paper has made some achievements, mainly as follows: (1) using grey forecast method to forecast the scale of Japanese national debt, which is 809 trillion yen in 2013, 865 trillion yen in 2014 and 923 trillion yen in 2015; (2) before the 1990s, the correlation between Japanese national debt and Japanese economy was relatively strong, and the correlation was positive first and then negative correlation, and the correlation between them was very weak after 1990s.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131.3;F813.13
本文编号：2422000
[Abstract]:The collapse of Japan's bubble economy, the 2008 world economic crisis and the March 2011 East Japan earthquake have led to a 20-year recession in Japan. To stimulate the economy, the Japanese government has adopted a series of expansionary fiscal policies, which has led to the accumulation of more and more Japanese government bonds. Japan's economy has also fallen into a strange cycle of economic depression-issuance of government bonds-too much of a national debt burden-an economic downturn. On the one hand, the study of the scale of JGBs will help us understand the current situation, causes and effects of JGBs; On the other hand, by learning from the experience and lessons of the scale of Japanese national debt, we can draw lessons from the issuance of national debt in our country, and make the scale of national debt of our country be in the condition of favorable macroeconomic operation. Based on the evolution process of the scale of Japanese national debt and the present situation of the scale of Japanese national debt, this paper systematically analyzes the inducement of the present situation of the scale of Japanese national debt. According to the scale of national debt from 1977 to 2012, the scale of Japanese national debt in 2013, 2014 and 2015 is predicted by grey system method. By combining quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper analyzes the impact of Japanese government bonds on Japanese economic growth, consumption, savings and investment, and makes a brief analysis of why such an impact is produced. Through the above research, this paper has made some achievements, mainly as follows: (1) using grey forecast method to forecast the scale of Japanese national debt, which is 809 trillion yen in 2013, 865 trillion yen in 2014 and 923 trillion yen in 2015; (2) before the 1990s, the correlation between Japanese national debt and Japanese economy was relatively strong, and the correlation was positive first and then negative correlation, and the correlation between them was very weak after 1990s.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131.3;F813.13
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