良性与恶性“通缩”冲击下的中国经济增长和宏观调控——对近期中国经济趋势的考察

发布时间：2019-02-15 03:10

【摘要】：近年来,特别是2014年,中国经济增长率虽然明显低于历史平均水平(9%以上),但仍属较高增长(近3年分别为7.7%、7.7%、7.4%),同时保持了较低的通货膨胀率(近3年CPI分别为2.2%、2.3%、2%),更为重要的是顺利实现了就业目标(2014年提前3个月实现全年就业目标),可以说出现了较高增长和较低通胀的组合状态,形成了与"滞胀"相对应的"长缩"。从理论上来说,低通胀、高增长、低失业的组合状态下出现的"通缩"是良性的,主要原因在于这种"通缩"是由于供给扩张所导致。由于供给方面的成本下降和效率提升所形成的扩张效应导致的"通缩",对应的是经济增长率上升和失业率下降;如果是由于需求萎缩导致的"通缩",相对应的则是经济增长率的下降,失业率上升,即所谓恶性通缩。~①对于良性通缩,政策上无须多虑,对于恶性通缩则必须予以扼制。我国经济现阶段,既存在需求疲软的恶性通缩冲击,也存在供给扩张的良性通缩冲击,因此,可能出现多种复杂局面,或者出现需求萎缩的负面冲击效应显著大于供给自然扩张的效应,形成通货膨胀率下降,同时经济增长率也下降,有"缩"无"长";或者出现后者大于前者冲击,形成通货膨胀下降,同时经济增长率上升,有"缩"有"长",或者出现两者对经济增长冲击作用相等,使得经济增长率不变,但同时通货膨胀率下降,不同局面对宏观调控有着不同的要求。本文重点分析2015年中国的总需求变化和总供给变化,对宏观经济态势和特点作出判断,并据此提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, especially in 2014, China's economic growth rate has been significantly lower than the historical average (more than 9%), but it is still a relatively high growth rate (7.7% or 7.4% respectively in the last three years). At the same time, the inflation rate was maintained at a low level (CPI was 2.2% and 2.3% respectively in the past three years) and, more importantly, the employment target was successfully achieved (3 months ahead of 2014). It can be said that the combination of higher growth and lower inflation has formed a "long contraction" corresponding to stagflation. In theory, "deflation" in a combination of low inflation, high growth, and low unemployment is benign, mainly because of supply expansion. "deflation" due to the expansionary effects of reduced costs and increased efficiency on the supply side, corresponding to an increase in economic growth and a decline in unemployment; If it is "deflation" caused by shrinking demand, it is corresponding to the decline in economic growth rate and the rise of unemployment rate, that is, the so-called "malignant deflation." ~ 1 for benign deflation, there is no need to worry too much about it, but for malignant deflation, it must be curbed. At the present stage of our economy, there is both a vicious deflationary shock of weak demand and a benign deflationary shock of supply expansion. Therefore, there may be a variety of complex situations. Or the negative impact effect of demand contraction is obviously larger than that of natural expansion of supply, resulting in the decrease of inflation rate, and the decrease of economic growth rate, which has "contraction" and "no growth"; Either the latter is larger than the former, resulting in a decline in inflation, while the growth rate of the economy rises, with "contraction" and "long", or the impact of both on economic growth is equal, making the rate of economic growth unchanged. But at the same time inflation rate drops, different situation has different request to macroscopical control. This paper focuses on the analysis of China's total demand and supply changes in 2015, makes a judgment on the macroeconomic situation and characteristics, and puts forward policy recommendations accordingly.
【作者单位】：北京大学;
【分类号】：F124

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