劳动力成本上升与中国经济波动——基于动态新凯恩斯主义视角

发布时间：2019-02-15 06:20

【摘要】：伴随着人口红利的逐渐消失,中国劳动力供需趋紧和成本上升将成为长期趋势。在典型事实的基础之上,本文在新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡框架内,引入劳动力成本约束,并对家庭预算约束条件和厂商生产函数进行扩展。研究发现:劳动力成本上升冲击对中国宏观经济的影响主要表现为通过"要素替代效应"促进产业结构升级的供给冲击和通过"收入-消费效应"提升居民消费能力的需求冲击;供给冲击对投资波动有显著影响,而需求冲击对消费波动的影响较为明显;中国当前以数量控制为主的货币政策对这两种冲击都有一定的熨平作用,客观上起到了稳定经济增长的作用,但它加剧了通货膨胀率本身的波动。
[Abstract]:With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, the tightening of labor supply and demand and the rising cost in China will become a long-term trend. On the basis of typical facts, this paper introduces labor cost constraints within the framework of new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, and extends the family budget constraints and manufacturer's production functions. It is found that the impact of the rising labor cost on China's macroeconomic is mainly manifested in the supply shock of promoting the upgrading of industrial structure through the "factor substitution effect" and the promotion of residents' consumption through the "income-consumption effect". Ability to demand impact; Supply shocks have a significant impact on investment volatility, while demand shocks have a more significant impact on consumption volatility; China's current monetary policy, which is dominated by quantitative control, has a certain ironing effect on these two kinds of shocks, which objectively plays a role in stabilizing economic growth, but it intensifies the fluctuation of inflation rate itself.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学财政税务学院;中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD037)、国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJL016) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790252) 2014年度中国博士后科学基金资助项目的资助
【分类号】：F249.2;F124;F224

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